APCEDI Alert SP/CI 14P Pat #2-2010: Cyclone Pat set to move into the Southern Cook Islands

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Pat, a tropical cyclone moving down into the Southern Cook Islands from the Northern Cook Islands.

This system is currently located 240 nautical miles (450 kms) north of Aitutaki in the Southern Cook Islands. It is moving southeast at 9 knots. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kts making it a strong tropical storm. Cyclone Pat is expected to strengthen into tomorrow into Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

The Cook Islands have raised a Tropical Cyclone Alert for all of the Southern Cooks Islands.

The residents of the Southern Cooks and French Polynesia should monitor this cyclone carefully. Residents in the affected islands of the Southern Cooks should monitor this storm carefully and follow all Government advice. Considerable beach erosion and high seas were experienced in some areas of the Southern Cooks last week with Cyclone Oli, so there could be cumulative effects.

Residents and authorities in French Polynesia should be particularly vigilant. Although most models show Cyclone Pat eventually recurving toward the west away from French Polynesia, until this westerly turn occurs, citizens should not become complacent. Severe damage has already occurred in many western and southern parts of French Polynesia, and not everybody may now have the ability to receive warnings.

Special Weather Bulletin Number FOUR for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 09/0329 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT CENTRE [980 HPA] CAT 2 LOCATED NEAR 14 DECIMAL 9 SOUTH 159 DECIMAL 2 WEST OR ABOUT 240 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 380 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF RAROTONGA OR ABOUT 300 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHEAST OF PALMERSTON AT 090300 UTC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 90 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 09 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE MAY BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN ISLANDS OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS FROM LATER TOMORROW.

FOR AITUTAKI, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO STRONG 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. WINDS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITH MOMENTATY GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS FROM TOMORROW MORNING. RAIN BECOMING MORE FREQUENT AND HEAVY FROM TOMORROW WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH FROM TOMORROW. DAMAGING HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

FOR PALMERSTON:
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND POSSIBLY REACHING DAMAGING GALE FORCE OR STRONGER IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. CLOUDY WITH SOME SHOWERS. RAIN BECOMING MORE FREQUENT AND HEAVY WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ROUGH SEAS BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS:
SOUTHEAST WINDS FRESH AND GUSTY. CLOUDY PERIODS WITH SOME SHOWERS. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 090930 UTC.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE THE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Pat.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/CI 14P Pat #1-2010: Cyclone Pat forms in Northern Cook Islands

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Pat, a tropical cyclone that has formed earlier today over the Northern Cook Islands.

This system is currently located 80 nautical miles (150 kms) south-southwest of Manihiki in the Northern Cook Islands. It is moving southeast at 10 knots. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kts making it a minimal tropical storm. Cyclone Pat is expected to slowly strengthen into tomorrow.

The Cook Islands have raised a Tropical Cyclone Gale Warning for Suwarrow (population 1-2 caretakes), Manihiki (population 470) and Rakahanga (population 130).

All residents of the Northern Cooks, Southern Cooks and French Polynesia should monitor this cyclone carefully. Residents in the affected islands of the Northern Cooks should rush cyclone completion to a finish and follow all Government advice. Considerable beach erosion and high seas were experienced in some areas of the Cooks last week with Cyclone Oli, so there could be cumulative effects.

Residents and authorities in French Polynesia should be particularly vigilant as the storm could pass near to or over the western part of the territory. Severe damage has already occurred in many western and southern parts of the islands, and not everybody may now have the ability to receive warnings. The many residents of isolated islands and atolls who refused to evacuate for Cyclone Oli should think twice before refusing again given the potential impact of the cumulative effects and the fact the responders may be overloaded from the effects of two storms.

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWO for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE PAT ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 08/0240 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW,MANIHIKI AND RAKAHANGA. A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT CENTRE [995HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 11 DECIMAL 7 SOUTH 161 DECIMAL 4 WEST OR ABOUT 080 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANIHIKI AT 080000 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED TO 40 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 55 KNOTS. PAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARDS LATER.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER MANIHIKI AND RAKAHANGA BUT EXPECTED TO AFFECT SUWARROW IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR SUWARROW, MANIHIKI AND RAKAHANGA:
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 35 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 40 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER SUWARROW. FURTHER PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS, 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS.PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SWELLS.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 080830 UTC OR EARLIER.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Pat.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/CI 12P Oli #6-2010: Cyclone Oli Wrap-up Post

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and Meteo France have discontinued all guidance for Cyclone Oli, which is now spinning down in the Southern Pacific Ocean away from all populated land areas.

A new cyclonic storm Pat has formed today in the same area of the Northern Cooks Islands where Cyclone Oli formed. APCEDI will cover Cyclone Pat in separate reports.

Cyclone Oli caused extensive and widespread damage to French Polynesia especially to the Leeward Islands (Îles Sous-le-vent) and the Australes Group. French Polynesia’s President, Gaston Tong Sang, declared a state of natural calamity over the weekend. The French army has mobilised to help affected areas.

One person was confirmed dead on the Austral Island of Tubuai. Tubuai (population 2,200) bore the full brunt of the storm, and half of the homes on the island have been severely damaged or destroyed. 600 residents remain in shelters. All phone and power supplies on Tubuai were also knocked out. A ship is on-route to Tubuai with relief supplies.

At least 20 other injuries were reported across the islands.

Widespread moderate to severe damage is being reported across much of the Leeward Islands (Îles Sous-le-vent). Bora Bora (population 5,000) has sustained widespread moderate to severe damage with 9 people injured, 279 homes damaged and 6 homes destroyed. Many evacuations took place across low-lying and vulnerable areas of the Leeward Islands (Îles Sous-le-vent).

At the height of the storm, some 5,000-6,000 persons were evacuated from vulnerable areas.

Widespread minor to localised moderate damage is being reported from the Windward Islands (Îles du Vent) although the shift in course of Cyclone Oli toward the south-southeast spared the islands from the type of more severe damage that has occurred to the west in the Leeward Islands (Îles Sous-le-vent) and south in the Australes Group.

This will be the last report on Cyclone Oli APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Oli.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.