APCEDI ALERT 10F #13, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY CAUSES WIDESPREAD DAMAGE ON PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU; THREATENS SOUTHERN COOKS

Powerful Category 3 Cyclone Percy has caused widespread, heavy property damage on both Pukapuka (population 600) and Nassau (population 70) with the majority of houses on both islands being damaged, many severely. APCEDI continues to be in contact with Chief Inspector John Tini in the Cooks Emergency Center based in Rarotonga. He reported that they were able to re-establish communication with Pukapuka about 5:00 PM local time. While the damage is widespread, there are no injuries, and everyone is reported safe and well.

In Nassau the 70 residents were evacuated to the 2 main churches (Catholic and Cooks Islands Christian) which are serving as Cyclone Shelters. Chief Inspector Tini also reported that Ham Radio contact continues with the island, and they are likewise reporting widespread damage but everyone is safe and well.

It is a great testament to the Cook Islands and their preparedness systems that they have weathered 4 cyclones in as many weeks without 1 serious injury or casualty.

Chief Inspector Tini notes that the Royal New Zealand Air Force Hercules had landed at Rarotonga at about 4:00 PM local time this afternoon, and they were discussing the priorities for the plane's next mission.

Percy has now begun its long anticipated turn and is moving southeast at 8-10 kt. Percy is still forecast to make a more southerly turn sometime in the next 12 hours. Now that the turn has begun, the situation for Rakahanga and Manihiki Island to the east of Pukapuka is improved. Manihiki Island was the location of the 1997 tragedy with Cyclone Martin where 19 people died. Authorities on both Rakahanga and Manihiki should be continue on alert. To the southeast on the island of Suwarrow, the two caretakers, who were the only people on the island, have been evacuated to Rarotonga since Cyclone Meena, and so no people are currently on the island.

Cyclone Percy is about 75 miles eastsoutheast of Pukapuka and about 65 miles southsouthwest of Nassau. Percy has peaked in intensity, but is still a major Category 3 strength Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. FMS, JTWC and NOAA are all forecasting a gradual weakening trend as it moved south some.

The Fiji Meteorological Service has now raised a Tropical Cyclone Alert for the Southern Cooks. So authorities in the Southern Cooks starting with Palmerston Atoll should now begin to take preparedness measures as the storm's progress warrants. Authorities in Niue and American Samoa should likewise continue on alert should a more unexpected southwesterly change occur later tonight.

Yesterday, the cyclone passed to the northeast of Swain's Island (population 5-20). All efforts to contact Swain's continue to be unsuccessful, but Dawn Alailima, Commander of the American Samoa Emergency Operations Command is reporting that a DC-130 plane from Honolulu will overfly the island tomorrow morning and undertake a food and medical drop. So APCEDI will report on the outcome of this trip. Hopefully the brave Swain Islanders will be found hale and hearty if not a bit wet and hungry.

Situation on Swain's Island, American Samoa
Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #9, 2005.

The day before, Percy caused widespread damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday. Mr Tino Vitale, General Manager of Telecommunications for Tokelau in Nukunonu reports that a boat will leave for Fakaofo tomorrow with supplies. The Doctor will be on the boat to attend to the serious leg injury reported earlier from the atoll.

Situation on Tokelau's 3 Atolls
Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005.

Authorities in American Samoa continue to maintain advisories and watches, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south or west. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Cook Islands, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

NORTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA, NASSAU AND SUWARROW.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS.

SOUTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MANU'A
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MANU'A

TOKELAU
STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

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NORTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number ELEVEN for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE PERCY issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 28/0638 UTC 2005 UTC.
Correction to location...

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA, NASSAU AND SUWARROW.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [945 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0 DEGREES SOUTH 165.4 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 74 MILES SOUTHSOUTHEAST OF PUKAPUKA OR ABOUT 152 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUWARROW AT AT 280600 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 120 KNOTS AND WEAKENING GRADUALLY. PERCY IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTH.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE AROUND 117 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUKAPUKA OR 123 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUWARROW BY 281200 UTC AND ABOUT 148 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUKAPUKA OR ABOUT 114 MILES WEST OF SUWARROW BY 281800 UTC.

FOR PUKAPUKA, NASSAU, SUWARROW AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS : DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 50 TO 65 KNOTS. WINDS OVER PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU EASING GRADUALLY. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS AT TIMES. FURTHER RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Northern Cook Islands ON TC PERCY will be issued at 280900 UTC or earlier.
______

SOUTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWO for Southern Cooks ON TC PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 28/0336 UTC 2005 UTC.
Correction to next issue time...

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [945HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 165.4W OR ABOUT 405 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALMERSTON AT 280300 UTC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 120 KNOTS AND WEAKENING GRADUALLY. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 08 KNOTS AND TURNING FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTH.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE MAY BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OR STRONGER OVER PALMERSTON ISLAND AND POSSIBLY OTHER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

FOR PALMERSTON ISLAND: SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS FROM TOMORROW. FINE APART FROM A FEW SHOWERS. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH. MODERATE SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS: SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING FRESH AND GUSTY. FINE APART FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE SWELL.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Southern Cook Islands will be issued around 280900 UTC or earlier.

Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 knots or 178-209 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large tress blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering of floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 10F #12, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY CONTINUES TO BATTER PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU ISLANDS IN NORTHERN COOKS; SOUTHERN COOKS PUT ON ALERT

Powerful Category 3/4 Cyclone Percy is making a near direct hit on the two westernmost of the Northern Cook Islands, Pukapuka (population 600) and Nassau (population 70). APCEDI has again contacted Chief Inspector John Tini in the Cooks Emergency Center based in Rarotonga. He reported that they have lost contact with Pukapuka since 8:00 AM local time. All 600 residents on Pukapuka have been evacuated to the Pukapuka School. As of 8:00 AM local time in Cooks, winds on Pukapuka were sustained at 55 kt with gusts up to 75 kt. Already 3 houses in Pukapuka have sustained serious damage.

In Nassau all 70 residents have also been evacuated to the 2 main churches (Catholic and Cooks Islands Christian) which are serving as Cyclone Shelters. Chief Inspector Tini also reported that Ham Radio contact was established with Nassau at 1:20 PM local time, and that at that time winds had died down to 15 kts. It is unclear whether this was because of the passage of the eye feature. Very heavy rain and hurricane force winds had done much damage to roofs on Nassau's houses according to the report.

Given the near direct hit of the storm's centre on Pukapuka and Nassau, authorities should expect widespread moderate to severe property damage on both islands. If communications are not restored with Pukapuka within a reasonable time later today after the storm's passage, then an aircraft should be sent immediately to assess the situation.

Chief Inspector Tini notes that a Royal New Zealand Airforce Plane was due to land at Rarotonga at about 4:00 PM local time this afternoon, and this might be used to assess damage in the Northern Cooks.

Percy continues to move eastsoutheast at 10 kt. Percy is still forecast to make a southern turn sometime in the next 12 hours. The timing of the turn is now critical for the Rakahanga and Manihiki Island to the east of Pukapuka. Manihiki Island was the location of the 1997 tragedy with Cyclone Martin where 19 people died. Authorities on both Rakahanga and Manihiki should be on alert and immediately rush cyclone preparedness plans to completion if the storm continues east. To the southeast on the island of Suwarrow, the two caretakers, who were the only people on the island, have been evacuated to Rarotonga since Cyclone Meena, and so no people are currently on the island.

Cyclone Percy is about 25 miles southsoutheast of Pukapuka and about 30 miles southwest of Nassau. Percy is still a major Category 3/4 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and according to the to JTWC and NOAA will continue to maintain strength although the FMS is calling for some weakening.

Most forecasts and models continue to show a southerly turn imminently, which would take the storm toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 3/4 cyclone. The Fiji Meteorological Service has now raised a Tropical Cyclone Alert for the Southern Cooks. So authorities in the Southern Cooks should be ready to undertake preparedness activities at short notice as the storm's progress warrants. Authorities in Niue and American Samoa should likewise continue on alert should a more unexpected south or westerly change occur later in the day.

Yesterday, the cyclone passed to the northeast of Swain's Island (population 5-20). All efforts to contact Swain's continue to be unsuccessful, and APCEDI would urge the US Government to undertake a flyover immediately or contact the New Zealand Government to do this in their course of dealing with Tokelau and Northern Cooks. Swains has been out of contact for over a week, and it is quite likely that the people there may need assistance as regular food drops have not been able to occur for several weeks.

Situation on Swain's Island, American Samoa
Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #9, 2005.

The day before, Percy caused widespread damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday.

Situation on Tokelau's 3 Atolls
Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005.

Authorities in American Samoa continue to maintain advisories and watches, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south or west. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Cook Islands, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

NORTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS.

SOUTHERN COOKS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANU'A
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANU'A

TOKELAU
STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

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NORTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number NINE for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE PERCY issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 27/2350 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [940 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1 DEGREES SOUTH 165.7 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHSOUTHEAST OF PUKAPUKA AT 272200 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 125 KNOTS AND WEAKENING. PERCY IS MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE AROUND 70 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUKAPUKA OR 145 MILES NORTHWEST OF SUWARROW BY BY 280900 UTC.

FOR PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 70 TO 80 KNOTS GUSTING 110 KNOTS CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING LATER TODAY AS THE CYCLONE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM PUKAPUKA AND
NASSAU. HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. PHENOMENAL SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS.

FOR SUWARROW:
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GRADUALLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE 30 TO 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS TONIGHT. RAIN BECOMING FREQUENT TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING
VERY ROUGH. DAMAGING HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELL DEVELOPING. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

FOR REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS AT TIMES. SOME RAIN WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Northern Cook Islands will be issued at 280300 UTC or earlier.
_______

SOUTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number ONE for Southern Cooks ON TC PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 28/0008 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [940HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1S 165.7W OR ABOUT 440 MILES NORTHNORTHWEST OF PALMERSTON AT 272200 UTC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS
WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 125 KNOTS AND WEAKENING. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS, BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH LATER.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE MAY BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER PALMERSTON ISLAND AND POSSIBLY OTHER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

FOR PALMERSTON ISLAND: SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY FRESHENING TODAY AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS LATER TOMORROW. FINE APART FROM A FEW SHOWERS, CLOUD INCREASING TOMORROW. MODERATE
SEAS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST SWELL.

FOR THE REMAINING ISLANDS OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS: MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS FRESHENING TOMORROW. FINE APART FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST SWELL.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Southern Cook Islands will be issued around 280300 UTC or earlier.
_____

Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 10F #11, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY POUNDS PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU ISLANDS IN NORTHERN COOKS

Powerful Category 3/4 Cyclone Percy is threatening to make a direct hit on the two westernmost of the Northern Cook Islands, Pukapuka (population 600) and Nassau (population 70). The centre of the storm is just to the west of Pukupuka as this report is being written.

APCEDI has contacted Chief Inspector John Tini in the Cooks Emergency Center based in Rarotonga. He reported that all 600 residents on Pukapuka have been evacuated to the Pukapuka School. In Nassau all 70 residents have also been evacuated to the cyclone shelter. As of 8:00 AM local time in Cooks, winds on Pukapuka were sustained at 55 kt with gusts up to 75 kt. Already 3 houses in Pukapuka have sustained serious damage.

Should a direct or near direct hit of the storm's centre on Pukapuka and possibly Nassau occur, authorities should expect widespread moderate to severe property damage on both islands.

Percy continues to move east at 5-10 kt. It was forecast to make a southern turn last night, but this has still not materialised, and in fact the course last night was even more toward the east than yesterday's eastsoutheast movement. However, it has started to slow down, which could indicate a turn more toward the south shortly. The timing of the turn is now critical for the Rakahanga and Manihiki Island to the east of Pukapuka. Manihiki Island was the location of the 1997 tragedy with Cyclone Martin where 19 people died. Authorities on both Rakahanga and Manihiki should be on alert and immediately rush cyclone preparedness plans to completion if the storm continues east. To the southeast on the island of Suwarrow, the two caretakers, who were the only people on the island, have been evacuated to Rarotonga since Cyclone Meena, and so no people are currently on the island.

Cyclone Percy is currently moving east at 10 kt and is maintaining its current strength. It is about 25 miles west of Pukapuka. Percy is now a major Category 3/4 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and according to the to JTWC and NOAA will continue to maintain strength although the FMS is calling for some weakening.

Most forecasts and models continue to show a southerly turn imminently, which would take the storm toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 3/4 cyclone. So authorities in the Southern Cooks should be ready to undertake preparedness activities at short notice as the storm's progress warrants. Authorities in Niue and American Samoa should likewise continue on alert should a more unexpected southwesterly change occur later in the day.

Yesterday, the cyclone passed to the northeast of Swain's Island (population 5-20). All efforts to contact Swain's have still be unsuccessful. The day before, Percy caused widespread damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday. The Fiji Meteorological Service is now issuing gale and high wind warnings for Northern Cooks.

Situation on Tokelau's 3 Atolls
Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005.

Situation on Swain's Island, American Samoa
Dawn Alailima, the American Samoa Emergency Operations Commander, reports that all communications continue to be down with Swain's Island, and that all efforts to re-establish communication have failed. She confirms that there are 3 families on the island, but other reports state that the exact number of people range from 5-20. The delegate for Swains Island in the American Samoan legislature, Alex Jennings, who is based in Pago Pago has expressed grave concerns to EOC about the situation on Swains and has asked for a flyover, food drop and medical supplies drop. He says that the Swains have not had any supplies for 2-3 weeks and has been isolated since Olaf's passage 2 weeks ago. The EOC has asked FEMA and the Coast Guard for help, but has expressed interest in New Zealand officials to assist with a flyover if any planes are going to Tokelau. New Zealand/Tokelau and USA/American Samoan officials might consider a joint operation for dealing with Swain's Island.

Authorities in American Samoa continue to maintain advisories and watches, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south or west. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Cook Islands, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

NORTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REMAINING ISLANDS IN THE NORTHERN COOKS.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW.

TOKELAU
STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANU'A
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANU'A

SAMOA
ALL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED

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NORTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE PERCY issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 27/1754 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REMAINING ISLANDS IN THE NORTHERN COOKS.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [925 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0 DEGREES SOUTH 166.8 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF PUKAPUKA AT 271500 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
100 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 145 KNOTS. PERCY IS MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE AROUND 40 MILES SOUTHSOUTHEAST OF PUKAPUKA BY 280000 UTC 0R 100 MILES WEST OF SUWARROW BY 281500 UTC .

FOR PUKAPUKA:
DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS 45 TO 55 KNOTS GUSTING 70 KNOTS. WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS, WINDS LIKELY INCREASING TO DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE 65 TO 75 KNOTS GUSTING 100 KNOTS, IF CYCLONE CONTINUES ON ITS
CURRENT EASTWARD TRACK. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS.

FOR SUWARROW:
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE 30 TO 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 DURING TONIGHT. RAIN BECOMING FREQUENT WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING VERY ROUGH. DAMAGING HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELL DEVELOPING. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS.

FOR REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS AT TIMES. SOME RAIN WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Northern Cook Islands will be issued at 272100 UTC or earlier.
___

Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 10F #10, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY BEARS DOWN ON PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU ISLANDS IN NORTHERN COOKS

Cyclone Percy continues to head eastsoutheast and is starting to bear down on the two westernmost of the Northern Cook Islands, Pukapuka (population 600) and Nassau (population 70). Percy is forecast to make a southern turn imminently, but unless this occurs in the next 4-6 hours, both islands could get a near direct hit by this major Category 4 storm. Therefore, the timing of the southern turn is now critical for both islands. Authorities on both islands should immediately rush cyclone preparedness plans to completion, and authorities on the other islands in the Northern Cooks should be ready to do the same tomorrow if required.

APCEDI has contacted Deputy Commissioner Maara Tetava in the Cooks Emergency Center based in Rarotonga. They are in contact with both Pukapuka and Nassau. He says that Emergency Centres have been activated on all Northern Cook Islands. He said that all low-lying areas of Pukapuka have been evacuated. Winds are starting to pick up there and are now at 15-20 kt sustained. The storm surge at high tide at 9:00 PM this evening has come in 100-150 metres. Winds and tides at Nassau are also picking up, but not as great as on Pukapuka. Authorities on both islands will be on alert all night as the situation develops.

Cyclone Percy is now moving eastsoutheast at 11-12 kt and is intensifying. It is about 140 miles (225 km) west of Pukapuka. Percy is now approaching Category 4 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and according to the to JTWC and NOAA forecasts is likely to continue to strengthen in the next 12-24 hours.

Most forecasts and models show a southerly turn in the next 4-12 hours, which would take the storm between Niue and the Southern Cooks, similar to Olaf's path, as a Category 4 cyclone. So authorities in both Niue and Southern Cooks should be ready to undertake preparedness activities at short notice as the storm's progress warrants.

Earlier in the day the cyclone passed to the northeast of Swain's Island (population 5-20). All efforts to contact Swain's have still be unsuccessful. Yesterday, Percy caused widespread damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday. The Fiji Meteorological Service is now issuing gale and high wind warnings for Northern Cooks.

Situation on Tokelau's 3 Atolls
Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005.

Situation on Swain's Island, American Samoa
Dawn Alailima, the American Samoa Emergency Operations Commander, reports that all communications continue to be down with Swain's Island, and that all efforts to re-establish communication have failed. She confirms that there are 3 families on the island, but other reports state that the exact number of people range from 5-20. The delegate for Swains Island in the American Samoan legislature, Alex Jennings, who is based in Pago Pago has expressed grave concerns to EOC about the situation on Swains and has asked for a flyover, food drop and medical supplies drop. He says that the Swains have not had any supplies for 2-3 weeks and has been isolated since Olaf's passage 2 weeks ago. The EOC has asked FEMA and the Coast Guard for help, but has expressed interest in New Zealand officials to assist with a flyover if any planes are going to Tokelau. New Zealand/Tokelau and USA/American Samoan officials might consider a joint operation for dealing with Swain's Island.

Authorities in American Samoa continue to maintain advisories and watches, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south or west. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Cook Islands, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

NORTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REMAINING ISLANDS IN THE NORTHERN COOKS.

TOKELAU
STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

SAMOA
GALE WATCH IS NOW CANCELLED FOR ALL OF SAMOA
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COASTAL AREAS
FLOOD ADVISORY : Flood advisory is now enforced for low lying areas that vulnerable to floods due to heavy rain.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS
A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANU'A
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANU'A

---
NORTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number FOUR for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE PERCY issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 27/0859 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REMAINING ISLANDS IN
THE NORTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [925 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1 DEGREES SOUTH 168.2 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES WEST OF PUKAPUKA AT 270700 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 145 KNOTS. PERCY IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE AROUND 70 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PUKAPUKA BY 271800 UTC.

FOR PUKAPUKA:
NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE 30 TO 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE, 45 TO 50 KNOTS GUSTING 65 KNOTS, WITHIN 6 HOURS IF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ON ITS CURRENT TRACK. RAIN BECOMING MORE FREQUENT WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS RISING TO HIGH OR VERY HIGH. HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

FOR REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS AT TIMES. SOME RAIN WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Northern Cook Islands will be issued at 271200 UTC or earlier.
_______

AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

WTZS81 NSTU 270802 COR
HLSZS1
ASZ001>003-271100-

CORRECT TO INCLUDE PM

HURRICANE PERCY LOCAL STATEMENT 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
902 PM SST SAT FEB 26 2005...CORRECTION

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS
A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANU'A
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANU'A

A STORM WATCH MEANS STORM FORCE WINDS OF 55 TO 70 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS

A GALE WARNING MEANS GALE FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 54 MPH IS OCCURRING OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS

...STORM INFORMATION...
HURRICANE PERCY WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9 SOUTH 168.8 WEST OR 220 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF MANU'A AT 7 PM SST SATURDAY. HURRICANE PERCY WAS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH IN THE PAST 3 HOURS. AT THIS MOVEMENT...HURRICANE PERCY WILL BE NEAR 12.5 SOUTH 167.6 WEST OR ABOUT 140 NM NORTHEAST OF MANU'A AT 1 PM SST SUNDAY. AT 1 AM SST MONDAY HURRICANE PERCY WILL BE LOCATED NEAR 13.7 SOUTH 167.2 WEST OR 130 NM EAST TO NORTHEAST OF MANU'A. HURRICANE PERCY CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 130 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 155 MPH. RADIOSONDE OBSERVATION AT 270000Z OR 1 PM SST SATURDAY SHOWS LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 500 MB...AND WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC PATTERN ALOFT EAST OF HURRICANE PERCY...IT CONCERNS THE IMPACT AND MOVEMENT OF HURRICANE PERCY IN THE VICINITY OF TUTUILA AND MANU'A ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS OF SWAINS SHOULD REMAIN IN SECURE SHELTERS.

RESIDENTS OF TUTUILA MA MANUA SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PREPARE FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SURF TO OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. STAY TUNED TO A LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION STATION OR LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST ADVISORY ON HURRICANE PERCY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF IMPACTS...
ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AND SOME COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG ALL SHORES OF SWAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. PERSONS ARE ADVISED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE AFFECTED SHORELINES UNTIL THE SURF SUBSIDES. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR SWAINS ISLAND...
WINDS DIMINISHING TO WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS DIMINISHING NEAR 25 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA...
SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 35 TO 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS SUNDAY.

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
THERE IS CONTINUOUS RAINFALL OVER SWAINS FROM HURRICANE PERCY IN THE PAST HOURS. SHOWERY BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH PERCY ARE MOVING ACROSS MANU'A ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 12 AM SUNDAY.

$$
CMB
_____

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 10F #9, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY TAKES AIM ON NORTHERN COOKS; CAUSES WIDESPREAD DAMAGE ON TOKELAU; SWAIN'S ISLAND ISOLATED

Cyclone Percy is now moving away from Swain's Island (population 5-20) toward the Northern Cooks after causing widespread damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday. The Fiji Meteorological Service is now issuing gale and high wind warnings for Northern Cooks.

Situation on Tokelau's 3 Atolls
Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005.

Situation on Swain's Island, American Samoa
Dawn Alailima, the American Samoa Emergency Operations Commander, reports that all communications continue to be down with Swain's Island, and that all efforts to re-establish communication have failed. She confirms that there are 3 families on the island, but other reports state that the exact number of people range from 5-20. The delegate for Swains Island in the American Samoan legislature, Alex Jennings, who is based in Pago Pago has expressed grave concerns to EOC about the situation on Swains and has asked for a flyover, food drop and medical supplies drop. He says that the Swains have not had any supplies for 2-3 weeks and has been isolated since Olaf's passage 2 weeks ago. The EOC has asked FEMA and the Coast Guard for help, but has expressed interest in New Zealand officials to assist with a flyover if any planes are going to Tokelau. New Zealand/Tokelau and USA/American Samoan officials might consider a joint operation for dealing with Swain's Island.

Cyclone Percy is now moving eastsoutheast at 12 kt and is intensifying. It is about 100 miles (160 km) east of Swain's Island and 200 miles (320 km) west of Pukapuka in the Northern Cooks. Percy is still a strong Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and according to the to JTWC and NOAA forecasts is likely to strengthen to a Category 4 storm in the next 12-24 hours.

On its current forecast course, Percy will continue southeast toward the Northern Cooks but is forecast to make a southerly turn in the next 12-36 hours, which would take the storm between Niue and the Cooks, similar to Olaf's path, as a Category 4 cyclone. So authorities in both Niue and Cooks should be ready to undertake preparedness activities at short notice as the storm's progress warrants.

Authorities in the Northern Cooks, should be on alert as a delay in the southerly turn could result in increased threat to Pukapuka and other westernmost islands. Authorities on Pukapuka should start to ready preparedness measures in line with the level of the approaching storm.

Authorities in the rest of Samoa and American Samoa continue to maintain advisories and watches, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south or west. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

All authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Cook Islands, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

NORTHERN COOKS
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REMAINING ISLANDS IN THE NORTHERN COOKS.

TOKELAU
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING PREVIOULSY IN FORCE FOR FAKAOFO IN NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE TOKELAU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

SAMOA
GALE WATCH REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SAMOA.
FLOOD ADVISORY : Flood advisory is now enforced for low lying areas that vulnerable to floods due to heavy rain.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HURRICANE WARNING FOR SWAINS ISLAND IS CANCELLED.
A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS ISLAND.
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS ISLAND.
A STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA.
A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA.

---
NORTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWO for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE PERCY issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 27/0304 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REMAINING ISLANDS IN
THE NORTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [925 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9 DEGREES SOUTH 169.2 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF PUKAPUKA AT 270200 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 145 KNOTS. PERCY IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS AND INTENSIFYING.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE AROUND 150 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUKAPUKA BY 271200 UTC.

FOR PUKAPUKA:
NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. WINDS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE 35 TO 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. RAIN BECOMING MORE FREQUENT WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

FOR REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS AT TIMES. SOME RAIN WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Northern Cook Islands will be issued at 270600 UTC or earlier.
-------

TOKELAU ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
Special Weather Bulletin Number FIFTEEN for the Tokelau Islands ON TC PERCY issued from RSMC NADI Feb 26/2347 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR FAKAOFO IN NOW CANCELLED.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE TOKELAU.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [925 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 10 DECIMAL 7 SOUTH 169 DECIMAL 8 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAKAOFO AT 262300 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 140 KNOTS. PERCY IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND INTENSIFYING.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS TODAY.

FOR TOKELAU:
EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

This will be the final Special Weather Bulletin for the Tokelau Islands. The next Bulletin will be the Routine Weather Bulletin to be issued at 270230 UTC.
______

AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

WTZS81 NSTU 270200
HLSZS1
ASZ001>003-270500-

HURRICANE PERCY LOCAL STATEMENT 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
300 PM SST SAT FEB 26 2005

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING FOR SWAINS ISLAND IS CANCELLED.
A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS ISLAND.
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS ISLAND.
A STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA.
A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
HURRICANE PERCY WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8 SOUTH 169.6 WEST OR 90 NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF SWAINS ISLAND...AND ABOUT 210 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF MANUA AT 1PM SST SATURDAY. HURRICANE PERCY WAS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 13 MPH IN THE PAST 3 HOURS. AT THIS MOVEMENT...HURRICANE PERCY WILL BE NEAR 12.4 SOUTH 167.9 WEST OR ABOUT 140 NM NORTHEAST OF MANUA AT 7 AM SST SUNDAY. AT 7 PM SST SUNDAY HURRICANE PERCY WILL BE LOCATED NEAR 13.5 SOUTH 167.3 WEST OR 120 NM NORTHEAST OF MANUA. HURRICANE PERCY CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 110 WITH GUSTS TO 130 MPH.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF SWAINS SHOULD REMAIN INDOORS.

ALL RESIDENTS OF TUTUILA MA MANUA SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PREPARE FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SURF TO OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON HURRICANE PERCY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF IMPACTS...
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AT SWAINS ISLAND AS VERY DESTRUCTIVE SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET WILL GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS AND DAMAGING SURF.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR SWAINS ISLAND...
WINDS OF 35 TO 55 MPH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 MPH SUNDAY.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA...
SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING.

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE THE LIKELY HOOD OF FLOODING TODAY IN SWAINS ISLAND.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 6 PM SATURDAY.

$$
_____
APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 11F #1, 2005: Tropical Depression 11F Forms in French Polynesia

Tropical Depression 11F has formed in French Polynesia between the southeast part of the Tuamotu Group and the northwest part of the Gambier Group. It is not expected to become a cyclone within the next 12-24 hours, but authorities in French Polynesia are beginning to issue advisory notes on the system. Authorities should keep any eye on this system as it may compound the problems resulting from several weeks of heavy rains across the islands this month.

ADVICE FROM THE FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11F [998HPA] LOCATED NEAR 21S 139W AT 262100UTC BASED ON GOES 9 VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SYSTEM POORLY ORGANISED WITH MAJOR CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF LLCC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. SYSTEM MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. TD 11F REMAINS WEST OF A 250 HPA RIDGE AXIS AND EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITH MODERATE WINDS ALOFT. MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MAINTAIN A EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK BUT DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT TREND OF DEVELOPMENT. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

ADVICE FROM THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES VIA TAHITIPRESSE

PREVISIONS ETABLIES PAR METEO FRANCE LE SAMEDI 26 FÉVRIER 2005 à 05H00 locales.

PREVISIONS PAR ARCHIPEL VALABLES JUSQU’A DIMANCHE SOIR :

ATTENTION:
1) L’ avis de phénomène exceptionnel numéro 4 concernant des fortes précipitations et des vents forts sur l’est et le sud-est Tuamotu et les Gambier est en cours.
2) Par ailleurs, une houle longue de Sud-ouest de 2m à 2m50 voire 3m intéresse la Société et le sud de l’archipel des Tuamotu. Elle provoque une montée des eaux dans les lagons exposés et de forts courants près des passes. Cette houle commencera à s’amortir en cours de journée.

TUAMOTU ET GAMBIER:
Un temps pluvieux avec des grains se maintient sur les régions de Pukapuka, Fakahina, Tatakoto, Reao, et de Tematangi, à Moruroa, Tureia jusqu’aux Gambier. Les précipitations sont localement de forte intensité et parfois orageux et devraient s’atténuer à partir de la nuit prochaine. Les averses et grains persisteront encore dimanche sur les régions de Reao, Moruroa et Gambier. Sur le Nord de l’archipel de Mataiva à Takaroa jusqu’à Napuka, le ciel est le plus souvent nuageux durant le deux jours avec des averses et grains isolés.. Ailleurs le ciel reste largement ensoleillé.

Vers les Gambier vent d’Est à Nord-est modéré, tournant dimanche au secteur Nord. De Hereheretue à Tematangi et Moruroa vent de Sud-est modéré, s’établissant dimanche au secteur Ouest à Nord-ouest. Ailleurs, vent de Nord à Nord-ouest modéré temporairement assez fort avec des rafales atteignant 70/90km/heure dans les zones perturbées, fléchissant dimanche 50/70Km/heure.

Mer agitée en général, localement forte dans les zones perturbées. Houle de secteur Nord 1m50 sur le nord et centre de l’archipel. Houle longue de Sud-ouest 2m à 2m50 voire 3m sur le sud de l’archipel.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY BATTERS SWAINS ISLAND; CAUSES WIDESPREAD DAMAGE TO TOKELAU

Cyclone Percy is now pounding Swain's Island (population 7) after causing widespread property damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday.

Mr Tino Vitale, General Manager of Telecommunications for Tokelau in Nukunonu reports on the preliminary damage as follows:

Situation on Nukunonu
The height of the storm surge occurred at 8:00 PM local time corresponding with high tide. The storm surge resulted in at least 5 houses on Nukunonu being washed away (3 in Motuhaga and 2 in Fale) and damage to many other houses. Residents living in the immediate coastal area fled inland or were evacuated to stronger houses during this time. During the evacuation, 2 people, one mother and a young man were caught by waves and washed out, but both were rescued. Everyone on Nokonunu is reported safe and well. Matiti School, the only school on Nukunonu has been large destroyed, but the hospital is alright. The bridge between Motuhaga and Fale is heavily eroded on the sides and covered with power and telecommunications lines and other debris. Vehicles can not go across but it can be walked across. Many trees, electrical lines and telephone lines are down and debris is widespread across all three atolls. Many boats have been washed onshore.

Situation on Fakaofo
There has been one serious injury to a man while trying to clear debris yesterday. This is a deep laceration to his leg. There is no doctor on the atoll, so authorities are evaluating the situation to try to get the man some medical help. The storm surge has washed away 2 houses and damaged many others. Many trees, electrical lines and telephone lines are down and debris is widespread across all three atolls. Many boats have been washed onshore.

Situation on Atafu
Communications with Atafu are still limited to satellite telephone, and communication has been irregular. Earlier reports from Atafu noted that the storm surge had been very bad especially on the western side of the atoll. The sea wall has been breached in some places and telecommunications and power are still down. The latest report confirms that although there was property damage from the storm surge, there were no injuries, and that everyone continues safe and well.

Yesterday's Parliamentary Session had been suspended early so people can get home as the Percy begins to bear down. The Wellington-based administrator of Tokelau, Neil Walter, is currently on the Nukunono Atoll for the session and he reported earlier today to Radio New Zealand that the islands are now prepared. He has been keeping Wellington advised of the situation as it has developed.

Situation on Swain's Island, American Samoa
Ben Sili, the American Samoa Emergency Operations Commander, reports that all communications have been down with Swain's Island for some hours, and that they are trying to re-establish communication. He confirms that there is only about 7 people currently on the island. It can be expected that damage here is similar to that on Tokelau given the proximity of the storm.

Cyclone Percy is now moving southeast at 13 kt and is about 50 miles (85 km) northeast of Swain's Island. Percy has maintained overall strength overnight after some weakening yesterday. Percy is still a strong Category 2/3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and according to the to JTWC and NOAA forecasts is still likely to strengthen to a Category 3/4 storm in the next 12-24 hours.

On its current forecast course, Percy will continue to batter Swain's Island with hurricane force winds for about 4-6 hours before pulling away. Authorities in the rest of Samoa and American Samoa continue to maintain advisories and watches, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Once Percy pulls away from Swain's Island, it is forecast to pass between Niue and the Cooks similar to Olaf's path as a Category 3/4 cyclone. So authorities in both Niue and Cooks should be ready to undertake preparedness activities at short notice.

All authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Cook Islands, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

TOKELAU
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FAKAOFO.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ATAFU AND NUKUNONU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

SAMOA
GALE WATCH REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SAMOA.
FLOOD ADVISORY : Flood advisory is now enforced for low lying areas that vulnerable to floods due to heavy rain.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS ISLAND.
A STORM WATCH IN NOW IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA.

---
TOKELAU ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number FOURTEEN for the Tokelau Islands ON TC PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 26/2025 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FAKAOFO.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ATAFU AND NUKUNONU.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [940 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 10 DECIMAL 5 SOUTH 170 DECIMAL 8 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTHSOUTHEAST OF FAKAOFO AT 261800 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 125 KNOTS. PERCY IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND INTENSIFYING.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAKAOFO AND ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NUKUNONU BY 270000 UTC.

FOR FAKAOFO:
EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS, GRADUALLY EASING. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS.

FOR ATAFU AND NUKUNONU :
EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING 45 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS LIKELY.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TOKELAU WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 262330 UTC OR EARLIER.

---

AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

WTZS81 NSTU 262000
HLSZS1
ASZ001>003-262300-

HURRICANE PERCY LOCAL STATEMENT 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
9 AM SST SAT FEB 26 2005

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWAIN ISLAND

A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR HIGHER WILL DEVELOP WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE WARNING AREA

A STORM WATCH MEANS STORM FORCE WINDS OF 55 TO 70 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6 SOUTH 170.4 WEST OR 50 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHEAST OF SWAINS ISLAND AND ABOUT 240 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHEAST OF TUTUILA AT 8 AM SST SATURDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. AT THIS MOVEMENT...TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL BE NEAR 11.2 SOUTH 169.6 WEST OR ABOUT 70 NM EAST OF SWAINS ISLAND OR 180 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF MANUA AT 1 PM SST SATURDAY AND WILL BE NEAR 12.5 SOUTH 168.0 WEST OR 130 NM NORTHEAST OF MANUA AT 1 AM SUNDAY AND BE NEAR 14.0 SOUTH 167.7 WEST OR 90 NM EAST OF MANUA AT 1 PM SUNDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY AFTER AN EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT YESTERDAY...HAS STAYED MORE OR LESS IN THE SAME INTENSITY IN THE LAST 12 HOURS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 120 MPH NEAR THE CENTER

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF SWAINS ISLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING. ALL RESIDENTS OF TUTUILA AND MANUA SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PREPARE FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SURF TO OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF IMPACTS...
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AT SWAINS ISLAND AS VERY DESTRUCTIVE SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET WILL GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS AND DAMAGING SURF OF UP TO 30 FEET TODAY FOR SWAINS ISLAND.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR SWAINS ISLAND...
WINDS INCREASING TO 30 TO 45 MPH THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 50 TO 75 MPH LATER TODAY. WINDS DIMINISHING TO 30 TO 45 MPH TONIGHT.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA...
EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 MPH TONIGHT AND TO 35 TO 55 MPH SUNDAY..

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE THE LIKELY HOOD OF FLOODING TODAY IN SWAINS ISLAND.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 12 PM SATURDAY.

$$
_____
APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 10F #7, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY BEARS DOWN ON SWAINS ISLAND; STORM SURGE BATTERS TOKELAU

Cyclone Percy has been pounding Tokelau's atolls, Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500) this afternoon and evening causing widespread property damage to houses and structures along the immediate coast. Mr Tino Vitale, General Manager of Telecommunications in Nukunonu reports that the high storm surge at 8:00 PM local time corresponded with a high tide, and this resulted in at least 3 houses on Nukunonu and 2 on Fakaofo being washed away. Residents living in the immediate coastal area have fled inland or were evacuated to stronger houses. During the evacuation, 2 people, one mother and a young man were caught by waves and washed out, but both were rescued. Everyone on all three atolls are still reported safe and well. Many trees, electrical lines and telephone lines are down and debris is widespread across all three atolls.

Communications with Atafu are still limited to satellite telephone, but authorities report that the storm is dying down this evening. Earlier reports from Atafu noted that the storm surge had been very bad especially on the western side of the atoll. The sea wall has been breached in some places and telecommunications went down this morning. The latest report this evening confirms that although there was property damage from the storm surge, there were no injuries, and that everyone continues safe and well.

Today's Parliamentary Session has been suspended early so people can get home as the Percy begins to bear down. The Wellington-based administrator of Tokelau, Neil Walter, is currently on the Nukunono Atoll for the session and he reported earlier today to Radio New Zealand that the islands are now prepared.

Cyclone Percy is now moving southeast at 12 kt and is about 70 miles (115 km) westsouthwest of Nukunonu . The Fiji Meteorological Service has now dropped the Storms Warnings for Nukunonu and Fakaofo but maintains a Gale Warning for all Tokelau. Percy has showed some signs of weakening in the last 3 hours, but is still a strong Category 2/3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and according to the to JTWC and NOAA forecasts is still likely to strengthen to a Category 3/4 storm by the time it passes over Swains Island in 6-12 hours. Authorities on all 3 Tokelau Atolls, Atafu, Nukunonu and Fakaofo should maintain cyclone preparedness measures until the cyclone passes out of the area in 12-24 hours.

On its current forecast course, Percy will pass 40-60 miles south of Nukunono and 45-65 miles southwest of Fakaofo. This course will spare all three atolls from a direct hit, but the forecast passage is still close enough to cause considerable damage to coastal areas from both wind and storm surge. Damaging gale-force winds as well as strong storm surge will continue to effect the islands for the next 12 hours.

The American Samoan island of Swains Island (population less than 40) is next in line, and a Hurricane Warning has been raised there. Authorities there should rush to completion all cyclone preparedness measures in line with a Category 3/4 Cyclone. On the current forecast course Swains Island will receive a direct or near direct hit, and the latest NOAA forecast calls for very destructive winds and dangerous flooding to begin later tonight into tomorrow morning. This is now a very dangerous situation for Swains Island. Authorities in the rest of Samoa and American Samoa have also raised advisories and watches, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Once Percy moves across Tokelau and Swains Island, it is forecast to pass between Niue and the Cooks similar to Olaf's path. So authorities in both Niue and Cooks should be ready to undertake preparedness activities at short notice.

All authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Cook Islands, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

TOKELAU
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A STORM WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR NUKUNONU AND FAKAOFO IS NOW CANCELLED.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TOKELAU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

SAMOA
GALE WATCH REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SAMOA.
FLOOD ADVISORY : Flood advisory is now enforced for low lying areas that vulnerable to floods due to heavy rain.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS ISLAND.
A STORM WATCH IN NOW IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA.

---
TOKELAU ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number TEN for the Tokelau Islands ON TC PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 26/0831 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A STORM WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR NUKUNONU AND FAKAOFO IS NOW CANCELLED.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TOKELAU.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [955 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8 DEGREES SOUTH 172.9 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 68 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NUKUNONU AT 260600 UTC. PERCY IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF NUKUNONU AND 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FAKAOFO BY 261200 UTC AND ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF FAKAOFO OR ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NUKUNONU AT 261800 UTC.

FOR TOKELAU:
EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS AND UP TO 65 KNOTS ABOUT FAKAOFO AND NUKUNONU. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TOKELAU WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 261230 UTC OR EARLIER.

____

AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

WTZS81 NSTU 260800
HLSZS1
ASZ001>003-261100-

HURRICANE PERCY LOCAL STATEMENT 06
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
9 PM SST FRI FEB 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWAIN ISLAND

A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR HIGHER WILL DEVELOP WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE WARNING AREA

A STORM WATCH MEANS STORM FORCE WINDS OF 55 TO 70 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9 SOUTH 172.6 WEST OR 120 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF SWAINS ISLAND AND ABOUT 290 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF TUTUILA AT 8 PM SST FRIDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 14 MILES AN HOUR IN THE PAST 3 HOURS. AT THIS MOVEMENT...TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL LOCATE NEAR 11.0 SOUTH 168.4 WEST OR ABOUT 170 NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF SWAINS AT 1 AM SST SUNDAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF SWAINS ISLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING THAT SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. ALL SAFETY PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BEFORE NIGHTFALL. ALL RESIDENTS OF TUTUILA AND MANUA SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PREPARE FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SURF TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF IMPACTS...
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AT SWAINS ISLAND AS VERY DESTRUCTIVE SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET WILL GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS AND DAMAGING SURF OF UP TO 30 FEET TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR
SWAINS ISLAND.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR SWAINS ISLAND...
WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 45 MPH TONIGHT...WITH A RAPID INCREASE TO 55 TO 75 MPH OVERNIGHT.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA...
EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 35 TO 55 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT.

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER SWAINS ISLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...INCREASING THE LIKELY HOOD OF FLOODING SATURDAY.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 12 AM SATURDAY.

$$
---
APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 10F #6, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY BEGINS TO BATTER TOKELAU

Cyclone Percy has been pounding Tokelau's westernmost Atafu Atoll (population 500-600). Mr Tino Vitale, General Manager of Telecommunications in Nukunonu reports that the storm surge has been very bad especially on the western side of the atoll. The sea wall has been breached in some places and telecommunications went down this morning. Communication is being maintained by satellite phone. The latest report last hour said that although there was property damage from the storm surge, there were no injuries, and that everyone was safe and well. A community cyclone shelter had been established, but most people were riding out the storm in their homes which are largely cyclone-proof.

Mr Vitale noted that the sea around Nukunonu (population 400-450) was very rough and the storm surge was already building. Today's Parliamentary Session has been suspended early so people can get home as the Percy begins to bear down. The Wellington-based administrator of Tokelau, Neil Walter, is currently on the Nukunono Atoll for the session and he reported to Radio New Zealand that the islands are now prepared.

Cyclone Percy continues moving eastsoutheastward just to the southwest of Tokelau's three atolls: Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500) . The Fiji Meteorological Service is maintaining a Gale Warning for Atafu and Storm Warnings for Nukunono and Fakaofo. Percy is now a strong Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and according to the new JTWC and NOAA forecasts could strengthen into a Category 3/4 by the time it passes through Tokelau and Swains Island in 6-18 hours.

Percy is now 90 miles (145 km) westsouthwest of Atafu and 120 miles (195 km) west of Nukunonu moving eastsoutheast at 12 knots. Authorities on all 3 Tokelau Atolls, Atafu, Nukunonu and Fakaofo should maintain cyclone preparedness measures in line with a Category 3/4 Cyclone until the cyclone passes out of the area in 12-24 hours.

All atolls are now getting heavy squalls and major storm surge, and conditions will continue to deteriorate throughout the afternoon and evening from west to east. On its current forecast course, Percy will pass 65-85 miles south of Atafu and 30-60 miles south of Nukunono and 45-65 miles southwest of Fakaofo. This course would spare all three atolls from a direct hit by the eyewall, but the forecast passage is still close enough to cause considerable damage to coastal areas from both wind and storm surge. Any minor deviation from this forecast course to the east or north could still lead to a direct hit for Nukunono and Fakaofo. Damaging gale-force and storm-force winds as well as strong storm surge will continue to effect the islands for the next 12-24 hours.

The American Samoan island of Swains Island (population 40) is next in line, and Hurricane Warnings have been raised there over night. Authorities there should rush to completion all cyclone preparedness measures in line with a Category 3/4 Cyclone. Authorities in the rest of Samoa and American Samoa have also raised advisories and watches, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Percy formed very rapidly, and more rapid intensification continues to be forecast in the next 12-24 hours as the storm moves across Tokelau and Swains Island after which it looks like it will pass between Niue and the Cooks similar to Olaf's path. So authorities in both Niue and Cooks should be ready to undertake preparedness activities at short notice.

All authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Cook Islands, Niue and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

TOKELAU
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NUKUNONO AND FAKAOFO.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ATAFU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

SAMOA
GALE WATCH REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SAMOA

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS ISLAND
A STORM WATCH IN NOW IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

---
TOKELAU ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number EIGHT for the Tokelau Islands ON TC PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 26/0221 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NUKUNONO AND FAKAOFO.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ATAFU.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [950 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.3 DEGREES SOUTH 173.9 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES WEST OF NUKUNONU AT 260000 UTC. PERCY IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS AND INTENSIFYING.

ON ITS FOREECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH OF ATAFU OR ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NUKUNONU BY 260900 UTC AND ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FAKAOFO OR ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTHSOUTHEAST OF NUKUNONU AT 261500 UTC.

FOR NUKUNONO AND FAKAOFO :
EXPECT WINDS INCREASING DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR ATAFU :
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TOKELAU WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 260530 UTC OR EARLIER.
----

AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

WTZS81 NSTU 260200
HLSZS1
ASZ001>003-260500-

HURRICANE PERCY LOCAL STATEMENT 04
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
3 PM SST FRI FEB 25 2005

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWAIN ISLAND

A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR HIGHER WILL DEVELOP WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE WARNING AREA

A STORM WATCH MEANS STORM FORCE WINDS OF 55 TO 70 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY (950 MB) WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.2 SOUTH 173.8 WEST OR 210NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF SWAINS ISLAND OR 360 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF TUTUILA AT 1 PM SST FRIDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY REPORTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 115 MPH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AT THIS TRACK AND MOVEMENT...TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL LOCATE NEAR 11.0 SOUTH 169.5 WEST OR ABOUT 80 NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF SWAINS AT 7 PM SST SATURDAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF SWAINS ISLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING THAT SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. ALL SAFETY PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BEFORE NIGHTFALL. ALL RESIDENTS OF TUTUILA AND MANUA SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PREPARE FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SURF TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF IMPACTS...
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AT SWAINS ISLAND AS VERY DESTRUCTIVE SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET WILL GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS AND DAMAGING SURF OF UP TO 30 FEET TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR SWAINS ISLAND.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR SWAINS ISLAND...
WINDS INCREASING TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND 35 TO 50 MPH OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING TO 70 TO 90 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 120 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA...
EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT.

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER SWAINS ISLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...INCREASING THE LIKELY HOOD OF FLOODING SATURDAY.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 6 PM FRIDAY.

$$
___

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 10F #5, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY CONTINUES BEARING DOWN ON TOKELAU AND SWAINS ISLAND, AMERICAN SAMOA

Cyclone Percy continues moving eastsoutheastward toward Tokelau's three atolls: Atafu (population 500), Nukunonu (population 400) and Fakaofo (population 500) . The Fiji Meteorological Service is maintaining a Gale Warning for Atafu and Storm Warnings for Nukunono and Fakaofo. Percy is now a strong Category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and according to the new JTWC and NOAA forecasts could strengthen into a Category 3/4 by the time it passes through Tokelau and Swains Island in 6-18 hours.

Percy is now 100 miles (160 km) westsouthwest of Atafu and 135 miles (220 km) west of Nukunono moving eastsoutheast at 15 knots. Authorities on all 3 Tokelau Atolls, Atafu, Nukunonu and Fakaofo should rush to completion all cyclone preparedness measures in line with a Category 3/4 Cyclone. The Wellington-based administrator of Tokelau, Neil Walter, who is currently on the Nukunono Atoll has reported that the islands are now prepared.

All atolls have already started to get squalls, and conditions will continue to deteriorate throughout the morning and afternoon. On its current forecast course, Percy will pass 60-80 miles south of Atafu and 40-60 miles south of Nukunono and 50-70 miles southwest of Fakaofo. This course would spare all three atolls from a direct hit by the eyewall but the forecast passage is still close enough to cause considerable damage to coastal areas. Any minor deviation from this forecast course to the east or north could still lead to a direct hit for Nukunono and Fakaofo. Damaging gale-force and storm-force winds will continue to effect the islands for the next 12-24 hours.

The American Samoan island of Swains Island (population 40) is next in line, and Hurricane Warnings have been raised there over night. Authorities there should rush to completion all cyclone preparedness measures in line with a Category 3/4 Cyclone. Authorities in the rest of Samoa and American Samoa have also raised advisories and watches, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Percy formed very rapidly, and more rapid intensification continues to be forecast in the next 12-24 hours as the storm approaches Tokelau and American Samoa after which it looks like it will take aim on the Cooks.

All authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Cook Islands, Niue and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

TOKELAU
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NUKUNONO AND FAKAOFO.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ATAFU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

SAMOA
GALE WATCH REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SAMOA

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS ISLAND
A STORM WATCH IN NOW IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

---
TOKELAU ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE


Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN for the Tokelau Islands ON TC PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 25/2319 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NUKUNONU AND FAKAOFO.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ATAFU.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [960 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.3 DEGREES SOUTH 174.2 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES WEST OF NUKUNONU AT 252300 UTC. PERCY IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND INTENSIFYING.

ON ITS FOREECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH OF ATAFU OR ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NUKUNONO BY 260600 UTC AND ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FAKAOFO OR ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF NUKUNONU AT 261200 UTC.

FOR NUKUNONU AND FAKAOFO :
EXPECT DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR ATAFU :
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TOKELAU WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 260230 UTC OR EARLIER.

AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

HURRICANE WARNING
Swains Island (American Samoa)

WTZS81 NSTU 252300
HLSZS1
ASZ001>003-260200-

HURRICANE PERCY LOCAL STATEMENT 03
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
12 PM SST FRI FEB 25 2005

HURRICANE WARNING AND STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA...

AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWAIN ISLAND

A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR
HIGHER WILL DEVELOP WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE WARNING AREA

A STORM WATCH MEANS STORM FORCE WINDS OF 55 TO 70 MPH WILL DEVELOP
IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

STORM INFORMATION...
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WAS LOCATED AT 8.9 SOUTH 174.9 WEST OR 260 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF SWAINS ISLAND OR 380 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF TUTUILA AT 11 AM SST FRIDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 954 MB WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 100 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 140 MPH CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 MPH IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AT THIS TRACK AND MOVEMENT...TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL BE NEAR 11.0 SOUTH 171.8 WEST OR 50 NAUTICAL MILES WEST OF SWAINS ISLAND AT 1 PM SST SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WINDS TO 140 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 170 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF SWAINS ISLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING THAT SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. EVACUATION OF COASTAL AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORES IS RECOMMENDED BEFORE NIGHTFALL. ALL SAFETY PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED TODAY LIKE BOARDING UP HOUSES AND PUTTING UP STORM SHUTTERS FOR SWAINS ISLAND. ALL RESIDENTS OF TUTUILA AND MANUA SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PREPARE FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SURF TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY..

STORM SURGE AND SURF IMPACTS...
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AT SWAINS ISLAND AS VERY DESTRUCTIVE SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET WILL GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS AND DAMAGING SURF OF UP TO 30 FT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR SWAINS ISLAND.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR SWAINS ISLAND...
WINDS INCREASING TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND 35 TO 50 MPH TONIGHT WITH WIND RAPIDLY INCREASING TO 70 TO 90 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 120 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA...
EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 35 TO 55 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT..

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER SWAINS ISLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY INCREASING THE LIKELY HOOD OF FLOODING SATURDAY.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM FRIDAY.

$$
___

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 10F #4, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY BEARS DOWN ON TOKELAU AND SWAINS ISLAND, AMERICAN SAMOA

Cyclone Percy continues moving eastsoutheastward toward Tokelau's three atolls: Atafu (population 500), Nukunonu (population 400) and Fakaofo (population 500) . The Fiji Meteorological Service has now issued a Gale Warning for Atafu and Storm Warnings for Nukunono and Fakaofo. Percy is now a Category 1 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, but could strengthen into a Category 2/3 by the time in passes over Tokelau in 12-24 hours.

Percy is now 175 miles (485 km) west of Atafu and 210 miles (340 km) West of Nukunono moving eastsoutheast at 12 knots. Authorities on all 3 Tokelau Atolls, Atafu, Nukunonu and Fakaofo should rush to completion all cyclone preparedness measures in line with a Category 2/3 Cyclone. Atafu has already started to get squalls and conditions will deteriorate as throughout the morning. On its current course, Percy will pass 50-70 miles south of Atafu sparing a direct hit but still capable of causing damaging gales. A direct or near direct hits by Percy is still possible for Tokelau's two other atolls Nukunono and Fakaofo later today.

The American Samoan island of Swains Island (population 40) is next in line, and Hurricane Warnings have been raised there over night. Authorities in the rest of Samoa and American Samoa have also raised advisories and watches, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Percy has formed very rapidly, and more rapid intensification is still possible in the next 12-24 hours as the storm approaches Tokelau and American Samoa after which it looks like it will take aim on the Cooks.

All authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Cook Islands, Niue and French Polynesia should monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

TOKELAU
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NUKUNONO AND FAKAOFO.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ATAFU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

SAMOA
GALE WATCH REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SAMOA
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SAMOA WATERS

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS ISLAND
A STORM WATCH IN NOW IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

---
TOKELAU ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number FIVE for the Tokelau Islands on TC PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 25/1715 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NUKUNONO AND FAKAOFO.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ATAFU.

Tropical Cyclone PERCY [970HPA] centre was located near 8.9 South 175.5 West or about 175 miles west of Atafu or about 210 miles west of Nukunono at 251700 UTC. Cyclone is moving east-southeast at 12 knots and intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds close to the centre estimated at 65 knots increasing to 80 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 63 knots within 30 miles of centre, over 47 knots within 50 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre
in sectors from northwest through north to east to south and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere.

On its projected track, the cyclone is expected to lie about 74 miles south-southwest of Atafu or about 79 miles west-southwest of Nukunono by 260500 UTC and about 50 miles south-southwest of Atafu or 65 miles south-southeast of Nukunono at 261700 UTC.

For Nukunono and Fakaofo :
Expect winds increasing to destructive storm force with average speeds of 50 to 60 knots with momentary gusts from 70 to 85 knots from this evening. Frequent heavy rain with squally thunderstorms. High to very high seas. Damaging heavy swells. Flooding including flooding of low-lying coastal areas expected.

For Atafu :
Damaging gale force winds with average speeds of 35 to 45 knots with momentary gusts from 50 to 65 knots from later this morning. Frequent heavy rain with squally thunderstorms. High seas. Damaging heavy swells. Flooding including flooding of low-lying coastal areas expected.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Tokelau Islands will be issued around 252000 UTC.
-----

AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

HURRICANE WARNING
Swains Island (American Samoa)

ASZ001>003-252000- BULLETIN
...IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY...LOCAL STATEMENT 01
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
6 AM SST FRI FEB 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF
AMERICAN SAMOA.

WATCHES/WARNINGS...
...A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SWAIN ISLAND...

...A STORM WATCH IN NOW IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA...

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR HIGHER WILL DEVELOP WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE WARNING AREA.. A STORM WATCH MEANS STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WAS LOCATED AT 8.8 SOUTH 175.6 WEST OR 300 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF SWAINS ISLAND OR 420 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF TUTUILA AT 4 AM SST (SAMOA STANDARD TIME) FRIDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 976 MB AND MAXIMUM WINDS OF 70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 85 MPH CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 MPH IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AT THIS TRACK AND MOVEMENT...TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL BE NEAR10.2 SOUTH 173.5 WEST OR 150 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF SWAINS ISLAND AT 1:00 AM SATURDAY AND AT 11.3 SOUTH 171.2 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES WEST OF SWAINS AT 1:00 PM SATURDAY AND WILL HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 140 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON..

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF SWAINS ISLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING THAT SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. EVACUATION OF COASTAL ALONG NORTH SHORES IS RECOMMENDED BEFORE NIGHTFALL. ALL SAFETY PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED TODAY LIKE TAPING WINDOWS...BOARDING UP HOUSES AND
PUTTING UP STORM SHUTTERS. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY..

...STORM SURGE AND SURF IMPACTS...
THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS VERY DESTRUCTIVE SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET WILL GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS AND DAMAGING SURF OF UP TO 30 FT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR SWAINS ISLAND.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR SWAINS ISLAND...
WINDS INCREASING TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TO 35 TO 50 MPH TONIGHT WITH WIND RAPIDLY INCREASING TO 70 TO 90 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 120 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA...
EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 35 TO 55 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT.

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER SWAINS ISLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY INCREASING THE LIKELY HOOD OF FLOODING SATURDAY.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM FRIDAY.

AKAPO
___

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 10F #3, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY BEARS DOWN ON TOKELAU

Cyclone Percy continues moving eastsoutheastward toward Tokelau's three atolls. The Fiji Meteorological Service has now issued a Cyclone Warning and Gale Warning for Tokelau. Percy is approaching Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, but could strengthen into a Category 2/3 by the time in passes over Tokelau in 12-24 hours.

Percy is now 300 miles (485 km) west of Atafu. Authorities on all 3 Tokelau Atolls, Atafu (population 500), Nukunonu (population 400) and Fakaofo (population 500) should now immediately implement cyclone preparedness measures in line with a Category 2/3 Cyclone . These measures should be rushed to completion as soon as possible. As noted in the warning below, the storm will approach the westernmost atoll of Atafu tomorrow morning. Direct or near direct hits by Percy are possible for all Tokelau islands on the current track.

Authorities in Samoa and American Samoa have also started raising watches and alerts, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south.

Percy has formed very rapidly, and more rapid intensification is still possible in the next 12-36 hours as the storm approaches Tokelau. After Tokelau, Percy on its current course would directly threaten Swains Island of American Samoa and then the Northern Cooks.

All authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Cook Islands, Niue and French Polynesia should monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

TOKELAU
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

SAMOA
GALE WATCH IS NOW IN FORCE FOR SAMOA
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SAMOA WATERS

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND SOUTH SHORES

---
TOKELAU ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWO for the Tokelau Islands
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 25/0802 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU

Tropical Cyclone PERCY [985HPA] centre was located near 8.6 South 177.7 West or about 300 miles to the west of Atafu at 250600 UTC. Cyclone is moving east-southeast 12 knots and intensifying rapidly. Expect sustained winds of 50 knots close to the centre, increasing to 60 knots in the next 6 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 50 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in sectors from northwest through north to east to south and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere.

On its forecast track, the cyclone is expected to lie about 100 miles west-southwest of Atafu or 125 miles west of Nukunono by 260600 UTC. The cyclone may bring damaging gale force winds or stronger over Tokelau in the next 24 hours.

For Tokelau :
Expect northwest winds 15 knots, gradually increasing to 25 to 30 knots and gusting to 40 knots early tomorrow. Damaging gale force winds 30 to 35 knots gusting to 55 knots may develop by tomorrow evening as the Cyclone passes to the southwest of Tokelau. Some rain, heavy at times with squally thunderstorms. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate to heavy northwest swells.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Tokelau Islands will be issued at 251400 UTC.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 10F #2, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY FORMS; TAKES AIM ON TOKELAU

Tropical Depression 10F has developed into Cyclone Percy in the seas between Tuvalu and Tokelau. The Fiji Meteorological Service has issued a Cyclone Alert for Tokelau. Percy is still a minimal cyclone, but authorities on all 3 Tokelau Atolls, Atafu (population 500), Nukunonu (population 400) and Fakaofo (population 500) should now immediately implement cyclone preparedness measures in line with a Category 1/2 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. These measures should be rushed to completion as soon as possible. As noted in the warning below, the storm will approach the westernmost atoll of Atafu tomorrow morning. Direct or near direct hits by Percy are possible for all Tokelau islands on the current track.

Percy has formed very rapidly, and more rapid intensification is still possible in the next 12-36 hours as the storm approaches Tokelau. After Tokelau, Percy on its current course would directly threaten Swains Island of American Samoa and then the Northern Cooks.

All authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Cook Islands, Niue and French Polynesia should monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

TOKELAU
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

AMERICAN SAMOA
HIGH SURF ADVISORY
---
TOKELAU ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number ONE for the Tokelau Islands
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 25/0133 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

Tropical Cyclone PERCY [995HPA] centre was located near 8.5 South 178.4 West or about 460 miles to the west of Atafu at 250000 utc. Cyclone is intensifying and moving east-southeast 14 knots and expected to gradually turn east later.
Close to its centre, the cyclone is estimated to have winds of 35 knots with momentary gusts to 55 knots.

On its forecast track, the cyclone is expected to lie about 40 miles west of Atafu by 260600 utc and may bring damaging gale force winds or stronger over Tokelau in the next 36 hours.

For Tokelau :
Expect northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Some rain, heavy at times with squally thunderstorms. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate to heavy northwest swells.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Tokelau Islands will be issued at 250800 UTC.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 10F #1, 2005: CYCLONE FORMING EAST OF TUVALU

Tropical Depression 10F has rapidly strengthened overnight east of Tuvalu and is now the subject of a Cyclone Formation Alert by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. This is roughly the same are where Cyclone Olaf formed, so authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Cook Islands, Niue and French Polynesia should all monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

-------
Joint Typhoon Warning Center Cyclone Formation Alert

WTPS21 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/242051ZFEB2005//RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.6S3 179.9E6 TO 10.2S3 175.5W8 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 241800Z5 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.0S8 179.6W3. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4S3 179.0W7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0S8 179.6W3, APPROXIMATELY 525 NM NORTHWEST OF WESTERN SAMOA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) INDICATED IN A 241752Z1 QUIKSCAT PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW UPGRADED TO GOOD.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 252100Z0.//

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #22, 2005: PRESIDENT DECLARES AMERICAN SAMOA MAJOR DISASTER AREA

President Bush has declared American Samoa a Major Disaster Area as assessments now confirm that many of the villages on the Manu'a Islands have been completely destroyed. The following article from the Honolulu Star-Bulletin gives a good overview. It well illustrates how fortunate the main Samoan Islands were that Olaf jogged around them instead of giving them a direct hit.

DISASTER DECLARED IN AMERICAN SAMOA

The most urgent need is for fresh water in Manua villages hit by Hurricane Olaf

Associated Press
from Honolulu Star-Bulletin

PAGO PAGO, American Samoa » President Bush has declared American Samoa a major disaster area following Hurricane Olaf, which wiped out nearly all the homes in at least one village in the Manua Islands, a government official said yesterday.

Leiataua B.V. Alailima, regional advisor for the Territorial Office of Homeland Security, announced the president's decision.

He said Gov. Togiola Tulafono had requested the declaration for all seven islands of American Samoa.

Details of the declaration, including how much of the island territory it covers, had not yet been received by the governor's office, but it was expected to make low-interest loans and other assistance available to storm victims.

Two fishermen caught in the storm remained missing, but there were no reports of deaths on any of the islands.

Tulafono, who toured the ravaged Manua Islands, was told early yesterday morning by the regional director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency that Bush had approved his request, Alailima said.

While the main island of Tutuila suffered minor damage, the Manua Islands were hit harder.

Heavy damage in Manua occurred in some villages on the island of Ta'u, said Alailima, adding that local and federal authorities were conducting a preliminary damage assessment.

"Almost every house in Fitiuta is destroyed," said Howard Malpepei, a high school teacher in Manua. He said electricity was being restored slowly, with crews flown in from the main island of Tutuila. "Trees were snapped in half and some uprooted," he said.

Manua High School also sustained damage and flooding.

Tulafono directed all government employees on Manua back to work to help in the recovery.

Schools in Manua remained closed yesterday.

The most urgent need was to provide clean water to the island of Ta'u, where there was no electricity to pump water from underground wells and the 100,000-gallon water tank was nearly depleted, Tulafono said.

Polynesian Airlines, owned by the government of neighboring Samoa, filed an emergency application with the U.S. Department of Transportation yesterday to operate flights to Manua temporarily during recovery efforts.

American Samoan officials made the request so they could charter flights to take in emergency relief supplies and personnel and carry out any necessary medical evacuations.

Olaf had gusts of up to 190 mph and sent waves 30 to 40 feet high onto the shores of Ta'u, Ofu and Olosega, the National Weather Service said. The main island of Tutuila had two landslides.

After battering American Samoa on Wednesday, the storm headed southeast and slid past the Cook Islands into open ocean in the South Pacific.

Meanwhile, off the northern coast of Samoa, New Zealand and U.S. search planes continued to hunt for two crewmen from a sunken fishing boat, drifting in open ocean for the past three days.

So far, the planes have located six fishing vessels originally reported missing and four survivors from a Samoan-owned boat that sank, the New Zealand Rescue Coordination Center reported.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #21, 2005: CYCLONE OLAF EXITS INTO SOUTHERN OCEAN

Cyclone Olaf has finally moved into the Southern Ocean after giving Rarotonga and Palmerston a glancing blow. Storm surge on Rarotonga caused some damage to residences and a some resorts on the west coast. Alerts and warnings are now coming down or being down-graded throughout much of the Pacific as Olaf departs, but some are still in place as follows:

Warnings for the Southern Cooks as follows:

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number FOURTEEN for Southern Cooks ON TC OLAF
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 18/1734 UTC 2005 UTC.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS IS NOW CANCELLED.

A STRONG WIND WARNING AND A DAMAGING HEAVY SWELL WARNING REMAIN IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [940HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6S 161.1W OR ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTHSOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA AND ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA AT 181700 UTC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS, DECREASING TO 80 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. OLAF IS MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTH.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO CAUSE GALES OVER RAROTONGA, MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS OVER OPEN SEAS, STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OVER LAND, GRADUALLY EASING TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ABOUT PALMERSTON. ELSEWHERE, RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS, EASING TONIGHT. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

This will be the final Special Weather Bulletin for the Southern Cook Islands and the next issue will be the routine bulletin at 182345UTC.
____

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA, NASSAU, SUWARROW, RAKAHANGA AND MANIHIKI.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING AND A DAMAGING HEAVY SWELL WARNING REMAIN IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS

NIUE
DAMAGING SWELL WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR EASTERN COASTAL AREAS OF NIUE.

SAMOA:
Small craft advisory remains in effect for the northern open waters.

AMERICAN SAMOA:
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS.

This will be the last APCEDI alert on this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #20, 2005: CYCLONE OLAF GIVING SOUTHERN COOKS GLANCING BLOW

Cyclone Olaf continues to move west of the Southern Cooks. Olaf is situated about 215 miles (345 km) west of Rarotonga and is moving southeast at 15 kt. Olaf has peaked in intensity but continues as a major Category 4 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS MUST CONTINUE TO BE VIGILANT AND MONITOR OLAF VERY CLOSELY

The forecast is for Olaf to continue southeast as a Category 3/4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale west of the Southern Cooks for the next 12 hours. After that, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Olaf has the storm passing out into the Southern Ocean away from any inhabited islands.

However, the Southern Cooks should continue to be vigilant for a further 12 hours, as Gale Warning are in effect and even a modest deviation to this track eastward would increase the threat to the Southern Cooks While the forecasts are continuing to look encouraging, Olaf remains a strong and destructive storm and care should be taken until it leaves the area. The Cooks have already been directly hit by Cyclone Nancy and Cyclone Meena in the last two weeks, so coastal areas are particularly vulnerable. Since many businesses and homes are boarded up and taken preparedness for Cyclone Nancy, there is merit to leaving relevant preparedness measures in place for the next 12 hours until Olaf has moved well away into the Southern Ocean.

Warnings for the Southern Cooks as follows:

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number NINE for Southern Cooks ON TC OLAF
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 18/0448 UTC 2005 UTC.
CORRECTION TO LOCATION VECTOR WITH REF TO RAROTONGA...

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON, RAROTONGA, MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [920HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 163.5W OR 145 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PALMERSTON OR ABOUT 215 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA AT 180300 UTC. POSITION FAIR. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 150 KNOTS, EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 100 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 145 KNOTS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. OLAF IS MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND GRADUALLY TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH.

ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA OR ABOUT 255 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA AT 181500 UTC AND ABOUT 320 MILES OF RAROTONGA AT 190300 UTC.

FOR PALMERSTON: DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS 40 TO 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR RAROTONGA, MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS FROM LATER THIS EVENING. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 45 KNOTS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS LIKELY.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Southern Cook Islands will be issued around 180600 UTC or earlier.
____

The following is a full and current list of Watches and Warnings that continue to cover a wide area of the South Pacific:

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WATERS ABOUT PUKAPUKA, NASSAU AND SUWARROW.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON, RAROTONGA, MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS.

NIUE
A DAMAGING SWELL WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR EASTERN COASTAL AREAS OF NIUE.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS INFORCE FOR ALL NIUE.

SAMOA:
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS INFORCE FOR ALL OF SAMOA DUE TO FRESH AND GUSTY WINDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS INFORCE FOR ALL SAMOA.

AMERICAN SAMOA:
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
A HIGH SURF WARNING IS IN EFFECT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS INFORCE FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA.

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS.

TONGA
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA WATERS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TUVALU WATERS.


APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #19, 2005: SUPER CYCLONE OLAF PASSING BETWEEN NIUE AND SOUTHERN COOKS

Cyclone Olaf continues to move between Niue and the Southern Cooks. Olaf is situated about 460 km east of Niue and is moving southeast at 10-12 kt. Olaf has peaked in intensity but continues as a major Category 4 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

THE COOK ISLANDS AND NIUE MUST CONTINUE TO BE VIGILANT AND MONITOR OLAF VERY CLOSELY

The forecast is for Olaf to continue southeast as a Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale for the next 12 hours. After that, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Olaf has the storm passing 300-350 km west of the Southern Cooks as a strong Category 4 storm in the next 12-24 hours.

This continues to be an optimal track as minimal damage would result to either Niue or the Southern Cooks although seas would be very rough and high wind warnings or even gale warnings would be in effect.

However, both Niue and the Southern Cooks should continue to be vigilant for a further 24 hours, as even a modest deviation to this track eastward would increase the threat to the Southern Cooks or a deviation westward would heighten the risk for Niue. While the forecasts are continuing to look encouraging, Olaf remains a strong and destructive storm and care should be taken until it leaves the area. The Cooks have already been directly hit by Cyclone Nancy and Cyclone Meena in the last two weeks, so coastal areas are particularly vulnerable. Since many businesses and homes are boarded up and taken preparedness for Cyclone Nancy, there is merit to leaving relevant preparedness measures in place for the next 24 hours until Olaf has moved well away into the Southern Ocean.

Warnings for Niue and the Southern Cooks as follows:

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number SIX for Southern Cooks ON TC OLAF
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 17/1754 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON, RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [915HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3S 165.8W OR 150 MILES WEST OF PALMERSTON AT 171600 UTC. POSITION GOOD. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 155 KNOTS, DECREASING TO 90 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 125 KNOTS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. OLAF IS MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS, CLOSER TO THE WESTERN ISLANDS OF THE
SOUTHERN COOKS.

ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTRED NEAR 20.0S 164.0W OR ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PALMERSTON OR ABOUT 250 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA AT 180000 UTC.

FOR PALMERSTON: NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS, GRADUALLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS 35 TO 40 KNOTS GUSTING 55 KNOTS DURING THE MORNING. RAIN WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS, BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING. ROUGH SEAS, INCREASING TO VERY ROUGH. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. POSSIBLE SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA: NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS, GRADUALLY INCREASING DURING THE MORNING. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS 35 TO 40 KNOTS GUSTING 50 KNOTS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING TO RAIN LATER TODAY, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS, INCREASING TO VERY ROUGH LATER TODAY. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. POSSIBLE SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING
COASTAL AREAS LATER TODAY.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 45 KNOTS LATER TODAY. SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS.
HEAVY SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Southern Cook Islands will be issued around 172100 UTC or earlier.

----
NIUE ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL NIUE AND NIUE WATERS.
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR NIUE IS NOW CANCELLED.
____

The following is a full and current list of Watches and Warnings that continue to cover a wide area of the South Pacific:

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WATERS ABOUT PUKAPUKA, NASSAU AND SUWARROW.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON, RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS.

NIUE
STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL NIUE AND NIUE WATERS.

SAMOA:
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS INFORCE FOR ALL OF SAMOA DUE TO FRESH AND GUSTY WINDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS INFORCE FOR ALL SAMOA.

AMERICAN SAMOA:
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
A HIGH SURF WARNING IS IN EFFECT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS INFORCE FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA.

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS.

TONGA
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA WATERS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TUVALU WATERS.


APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #18, 2005: SUPER CYCLONE OLAF ALERTS AND WARNINGS UPGRADED FOR NIUE AND SOUTHERN COOKS

Super-Cyclone Olaf continues moving away from American Samoa in the direction of the Southern Cook Islands. Olaf is situated about 130 miles (115 km) southeast of the Manu'a Group, American Samoa and is moving southeast at 14 kt. Olaf has peaked in intensity but continues as a major Category 5 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

THE COOK ISLANDS AND NIUE MUST CONTINUE TO BE VIGILANT AND MONITOR OLAF VERY CLOSELY

The forecast is for Olaf to continue southeast as a Category 5 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale for the next 12 hours. After that Olaf is forecast to be approaching the Southern Cooks as a strong Category 4/5 storm in 24-36 hours. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center's Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Olaf has the storm tracking between Niue and the Southern Cooks passing about 175-225 miles west of Rarotonga. This is an optimal track because if this path were to be maintained, minimal damage would result to either Niue or the Southern Cooks although seas would be very rough and high wind warnings or even gale warnings would be in effect.

However, even a modest deviation to this track eastward would increase the threat to the Southern Cooks or a deviation more south or westward would heighten the risk for Niue. Nancy remains a strong, extratropical storm to the south which could further complicate forecasting. The Cooks have already been directly hit by Cyclone Nancy and Cyclone Meena in the last two weeks, so coastal areas are particularly vulnerable. Since many businesses and homes are boarded up and taken preparedness for Cyclone Nancy, there is merit to leaving relevant preparedness measures in place for the next 24-48 until the path of Olaf is better known, and more informed decisions can be made.

Warnings have now been upgraded for both Niue and the Southern Cooks as follows:

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number ONE for Southern Cooks ON TC OLAF
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 17/0257 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT AND STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR
THE REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [920HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 168.1W AT 170000 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS, DECREASING TO 100 KNOTS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE WESTERN ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHERN COOKS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR PALMERSTON: NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS, GRADUALLY INCREASING TONIGHT. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS 35 TO 40 KNOTS GUSTING 50 KNOTS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING DURING TOMORROW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING TO RAIN TOMORROW, HEAVY AT TIMES. ROUGH SEAS INCREASING TO VERY ROUGH DURING TOMORROW. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS: NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS, GRADUALLY INCREASING DURING TOMORROW. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS 35 TO 40 KNOTS GUSTING 50 KNOTS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TOMORROW NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING TO RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES TOMORROW. ROUGH SEAS INCREASING TO VERY ROUGH TOMORROW. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Southern Cook Islands will be issued around 170600 UTC.

----
NIUE ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number ONE for Niue ON TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 17/0414 UTC 2005 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Warning

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [920HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 167.5W AT 170300 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS, DECREASING TO 100 KNOTS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE EAST OF NIUE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 45 to 55 KILOMETRES PER HOUR GUSTING 85 KILOMETRES PER HOUR, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS 65 TO 75 KILOMETRES PER HOUR GUSTING 100 KILOMETRES PER HOUR DURING TOMORROW. SOME SHOWERS TODAY, RAIN DEVELOPING WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. ROUGH SEAS, BECOMING VERY ROUGH TOMORROW. HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for Niue will be issued around 170700 UTC or earlier.
____

The following is a full and current list of Watches and Warnings that continue to cover a wide area of the South Pacific:

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WATERS ABOUT PUKAPUKA, NASSAU AND SUWARROW.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT AND STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS.

NIUE
A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

SAMOA:
WIND ADVISORY: WIND ADVISORY REMAINS INFORCE FOR ALL OF SAMOA DUE TO FRESH AND GUSTY WINDS.
FLOOD ADVISORY:FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS INFORCE FOR ALL LOW LYING AREA.

AMERICAN SAMOA:
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
A HIGH SURF WARNING IS IN EFFECT
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MANU'A

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS.

TONGA
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA WATERS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TUVALU WATERS.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these tropical systems.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #17, 2005: SUPER CYCLONE OLAF MOVES AWAY FROM AMERICAN SAMOA; SOUTHERN COOKS AND NIUE ON ALERT

Super-Cyclone Olaf has made a direct hit on American Samoa's Manu'a Islands early this morning and is now moving away from American Samoa in the direction of the Southern Cook Islands. Olaf is situated 100 miles (160 km) southeast of the Manu's group and is moving southeast at 9 kt. Olaf looks like it has peaked in intensity. (For information on the situation on the Manu'a Group see APCEDI Report #16). Assessments and clean-up will start later this afternoon on the Manu'a Group and will get into full swing into tomorrow as the winds abate. Flights in and out of Samoa and the Cook Islands have resumed today.

The Australian Broadcast Corporation (ABC) has also reported about 3 fishing boats which have gone missing in the northern waters of American Samoa. These boats had a combined crew of 18 men.

The Cook Islands and Niue must now be very vigilant and monitor Olaf very closely.

The forecast is for Olaf to continue southeast as a Category 5 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale for the next 12 hours. After that Olaf is forecast to be approaching the Southern Cooks as a strong Category 4/5 storm in 24-48 hours. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center's Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Olaf has the storm tracking between Niue and the Southern Cooks passing about 175-225 miles west of Rarotonga. This is an optimal track because if this path were to be maintained, minimal damage would result to either Niue or the Southern Cooks although seas would be very rough and high wind warnings or even gale warnings would be in effect.

However, even a modest deviation to this track eastward could increase the threat to the Southern Cooks or a deviation more southward could heighten the risk for Niue. The Cooks have already been directly hit by Cyclone Nancy and Cyclone Meena in the last two weeks, so coastal areas are particularly vulnerable. Since many businesses and homes are boarded up and taken preparedness for Cyclone Nancy, there is merit to leaving relevant preparedness measures in place for the next 24-48 until the path of Olaf is better known, and more informed decisions can be made.

AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

WTZS81 NSTU 170100
HLSZS1
ASZ001>003-170400-

BULLETIN
...IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF...LOCAL STATEMENT 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
2 PM SST WED FEB 16 2005

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
...A STORM WARNING FOR MANU'A IS CANCELLED...
...A GALE WARNING FOR MANU'A...

...WIND INFORMATION...
GALE FORCE WINDS...39 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER MANUA ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD BE SECURED AND TAKEN INDOORS. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND GLASS DOORS WHEN WINDS GET STRONG AND GUSTY. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON HURRICANE OLAF.

...STORM INFORMATION...
HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TUTUILA AND ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANUA...AT ABOUT 1 PM WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE OLAF WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH IN THE PAST 3 HOURS.

...TIDE IMPACTS...
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 FEET TODAY...PRODUCING SURF HEIGHTS OF 20 TO 25 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER SETS THROUGH THURSDAY. COASTAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS ON ALL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE AS THEY ARE BEING INUNDATED BY DESTRUCTIVE SURF AND WAVES. ALL SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD STAY IN PORT.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 PM WEDNESDAY.
$$

Watches and warnings continue over a wide area of the South Pacific covering 8 countries as follows:

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WATERS ABOUT PUKAPUKA, NASSAU AND SUWARROW.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR ALL SOUTHERN COOKS

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR ALL NIUE AND NIUE WATERS.

SAMOA:
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL OF SAMOA DUE TO FRESH AND GUSTY WINDS
FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SAMOA

AMERICAN SAMOA:
...A GALE WARNING FOR MANU'A

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS.

TONGA
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA WATERS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TUVALU WATERS.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.
----

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these tropical systems.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #16, 2005: SUPER CYCLONE OLAF MAKES DIRECT HIT ON MANU'A ISLANDS-TAKES AIM ON COOKS

Super-Cyclone Olaf has made a direct hit on American Samoa's Manu'a Islands. Olaf is situated 15 miles (25 km) southeast of Manu'a Group, moving southeast at 14 kt.

APCEDI talked to Philo Jennings of the American Samoa Department of Education who is monitoring the situation on the Manu'a Group for the Government. He had just spoken with the Principle of Manu'a School who said the eye had past directly over Ta'u in last few hours. The 1,300 residents of the 3 Manu'a Islands, Ta'u, Ofu and Olosega have weathered the storm in shelters on each island. In Tau, the 845 residents continue to ride out the storm in the main high school and on Ofu and Olosega the 230 residents of both islands are sheltering in the main churches. The Principal has reported that all residents are safe and well, but that it is likely that the property damage from the storm is very severe. Waves were already coming well over the coastal road when the men were forced to retreat to the shelters and large amounts of debris have been flying about outside the school. A reconnaissance plane will leave for the island later this afternoon, and it will land if the airstrip is still functional and clear of debris.

For Samoa, to the west, this was a very lucky break. The two main islands of Samoa, Savai'i and Upolu have had a most fortuitous escape due to the sudden eastern turn of Olaf yesterday morning. Reports are now coming in of widespread light damage such as trees and powerlines down in some area, but nothing like would have happened with a direct hit from Olaf.

Likewise the main island of Tutuila on American Samoa largely escaped severe damage although there are many reports of widespread light to locally moderate damage especially from the east side of the island. The 70 evacuation shelters will begin allowing people to go home at about noon local time.

After Samoa, Olaf is forecast to head toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 5 Cyclone. The Cooks have already been directly hit by Cyclone Nancy and Cyclone Meena in the last two weeks. Niue may also get a glancing blow from the storm. This continues to be a critically dangerous situation for the Manu'a Group in American Samoa for the next 4-6 hours until Olaf pulls away. The Cook Islands and Niue must now be very vigilant and monitor this storm very closely.

AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

...A HURRICANE WARNING FOR MANUA CONTINUES...

...A STORM WARNING FOR TUTUILA AND AUNUU CONTINUES...

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA...AUNUU AND MANUA...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF MANUA SHOULD REMAIN INDOORS. THE DANGEROUS HURRICANE OLAF IS MOVING DIRECTLY OVER MANUA NOW AND THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. PLEASE BE ADVISED THAT AS THE EYE OF HURRICANE OLAF MOVES OVER THE ISLANDS...FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE EXPERIENCED BY THE MANUA ISLANDS...BUT PLEASE BE WARNED THAT THIS WILL NOT LAST AS THE BACK SIDE OF THE EYE WALL WILL AGAIN BRING DEVASTATING WINDS FROM THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION. ALL RESIDENTS OF MANUA MUST CONTINUE TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON HURRICANE OLAF.

...STORM INFORMATION...
HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED AT 14.0 SOUTH 169.4 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF TAU AT 4 AM WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE OLAF IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE WITH WINDS OF 160 MPH AND GUSTS TO 190 NEAR THE CENTER. HURRICANE OLAF IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE MANUA ISLANDS AND WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 MPH.

...STORM SURGE AND TIDE IMPACTS...
STORM SURGE AND VERY HIGH SEAS WILL PRODUCE DESTRUCTIVE WAVES OF 30 TO 40 FEET ON ALL SHORES OF MANUA. COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG LOW LYING AREAS OF ALL ISLANDS BEING INUNDATED BY THESE DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. ALL SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD STAY IN PORT.

...WIND INFORMATION...
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 100 TO 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL DEVASTATE ALL OF THE MANUA ISLANDS. WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL AFFECT TUTUILA AND AUNUU.

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE OLAF ARE CONTINUOUSLY MOVING OVER TUTUILA...AUNUU AND MANUA THIS MORNING....CAUSING WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND
OVERFLOW OF STREAMS. LANDSLIDES WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING HEAVY DOWNPOUR. HURRICANE OLAF HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDE THAT WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM WEDNESDAY.

AKAPO
$$
-----
Watches and warnings continue over a wide area of the South Pacific covering 7 countries as follows:

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR ALL NORTHERN COOK WATERS.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR ALL SOUTHERN COOK WATERS.

SAMOA:
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS INFORCE FOR ALL OF SAMOA DUE TO FRESH AND GUSTY WINDS
FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SAMOA

AMERICAN SAMOA:
A HURRICANE WARNING FOR MANUA CONTINUES
A STORM WARNING FOR TUTUILA AND AUNUU CONTINUES...
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA...AUNUU AND MANUA

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS.

TONGA
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA WATERS.

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE WATERS.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.
----

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these tropical systems.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #15, 2005: SUPER CYCLONE OLAF BEARING DOWN ON AMERICAN SAMOA- NANCY EXITS FROM COOKS

Super-Cyclone Olaf is situated 95 miles (150 km) northeast of Apia, Samoa, moving largely east at 13 kt. Olaf is currently causing intermittent heavy squalls across much of Samoa and American Samoa at this time. The two main islands of Samoa, Savai'i and Upolu have had a most fortuitous escape due to the sudden eastern turn of Olaf this morning. Now American Samoa waits to see when Olaf will again turn to the southeast. Forecast models have Olaf moving north of Tutuila and its main city of Pago Pago, but starting to turn more southeast over or very near the Manu'a Group early tomorrow morning. This continues to be a critically dangerous situation for American Samoa. Niue and the Cook Islands must now watch OIaf very carefully to see which direction it will take once it passes American Samoa.

Cyclone Nancy is now greatly weakened and is moving south away from the Cook Islands. Nancy caused widespread light to locally moderate property damage on Aitutake, Rarotonga, Mitiaro, Atiu, Mauke and Mangaia.

Watches and warnings continue over a wide area of the South Pacific covering a record 8 countries as follows:

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR ALL NORTHERN COOK WATERS.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, ATIU, MITIARO, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

SAMOA:
HURRICANE WARNING FOR SAVAI'I IS NOW DOWNGRADED TO STORM FORCE WARNING
HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR UPOLU

AMERICAN SAMOA:
A HURRICANE WARNING FOR TUTUILA, AUNUU AND MANUA
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL AREAS

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS.

TONGA
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA WATERS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE WATERS.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.
----
SUPER-CYCLONE OLAF
Super-Cyclone Olaf slowed down considerable last night as it was approaching Savai'i and then took a largely eastward turn. This adverted the storm from going directly over the two main islands of Savai'i and Upolu. It is now 100 miles (160 km) north of Pago Pago in American Samoa. Olaf is now a very large Category 5 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale capable of very severe damage to any island receiving a direct or near direct hit. Forecast models are calling for a turn more to southeast in the next 6-12 hours. The timing of this turn now becomes critical for American Samoa particularly for the Manu'a Group to the east of Tutuila. If the turn occurs in the next 4-6 hours it could bring the storm very close or over the Manu'a Group.

APCEDI has spoken with American Samoa Disaster authorities and they have outlined the following situation:

Situation on Tutuila (55,000 population): Over 70 shelters have been opened across the island and over 1000 people have been evacuated from low-lying coastal and flood-prone areas. The Governor declared an Emergency situation there earlier in the afternoon. The airport was shut down at 5:00 PM local time yesterday and all flights have been cancelled or rerouted. All schools have been closed as well as most public and private operations. Radio reports have been warning all residents for the past 72 hours, and most coastal businesses and homes have largely boarded up, and everyone is awaiting the arrival of the storm.

Situation on the Manu'a Group (1,300 population): The Manu'a Group is composed of 3 islands; Tau (845 population); Ofu (230 population) and Olosega (230 population). On the main island of Tau most residents have been evacuated to the high school which is up in the hill away from the coast. On Ofu and Olosega, most residents have been evacuated to the main churches on the island.

Therefore in total over 2000 people have been evacuated in preparation for the storm.

After Samoa, Olaf is forecast to head toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 5 Cyclone. This area will have already been affected by Cyclone Nancy plus the effects from Cyclone Meena earlier in the month. Niue may also get a glancing blow from the storm. This continues to be a critically dangerous situation for Samoa and American Samoa, and the Cooks and Niue must now be very vigilant.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Olaf.

SAMOA ALERT FROM SAMOA METEOROLOGY DIVISION

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER TWENTY SEVEN (27) FOR SAMOA ISSUED BY SAMOA METEOROLOGY SERVICES AT 160730Z OR 8:30 P.M. 15th FEBRUARY 2005.


…… HURRICANE WARNING FOR SAVAI'I IS NOW DOWNGRADED TO STORM FORCE WARNING….

…….. HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR UPOLU……

OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8 SOUTH 170.9 WEST OR 79 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHEAST OF APIA AND 82 MILES NORTHEAST OF ALEIPATA AT 160600Z OR 7:00 P.M THIS EVENING. TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF REMAINS IN ITS CURRENT STRENGTH AND IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 12 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 MPH NEAR THE CENTRE WITH GUSTS OF 150 MPH AT TIMES.

IF OLAF CONTINUES ON ITS PROJECTED TRACK IT WILL RELOCATE TO ABOUT 111 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF APIA AND 101 MILES NORTHEAST OF ALEIPATA AT 161200Z OR 1:A.M.WEDNESDAY.

FOR SAMOA: FOR SAVAI'I: GALE FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 55 MPH GUSTING TO 60 MPH AT TIMES. WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN THE NEXT 6 TO12 HOURS.

FOR UPOLU: GALE FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 55 MPH, EXPECTED STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE OF 55 TO 70 MPH GUSTING UP TO 150 MPH ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF UPOLU TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND OVERFLOWING RIVERS TONIGHT.

ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH SIGNIFICANT SWELLS DEVELOPING. COASTAL STORM SURGE EXPECTED OF ABOUT 15-20 FEET AFFECTING LOW LYING NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 11:30 P.M.

AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

WTZS81 NSTU 160800
HLSZS1
ASZ001>003-161100-

BULLETIN
...IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF...LOCAL STATEMENT 17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
9 PM SST TUE FEB 15 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE OLAF HEADING TOWARD AMERICAN SAMOA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
...A HURRICANE WARNING FOR TUTUILA...AUNUU AND MANUA...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...

...STORM INFORMATION...
HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED AT 12.8 SOUTH 170.9 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH TO NORTHWEST OF TUTUILA AT 8 PM SST TUESDAY. HURRICANE OLAF CONSISTED WINDS OF 160 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE CENTER WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH IN THE LAST 3 HOURS...AND IT WILL MAINTAIN THIS TRACK IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THIS TRACK WILL PLACE HURRICANE OLAF WITHIN 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF TUTUILA AT 2 AM WEDNESDAY AND NEAR MANUA 7 AM WEDNESDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND TIDE IMPACTS...
THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS VERY DESTRUCTIVE SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET WILL GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS AND FEROCIOUS SURF OF 40 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER SETS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COASTAL FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORES IS IMMINENT. ALL SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD STAY IN PORT.

...WIND INFORMATION...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS TO 80 TO 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS COULD AFFECT TUTUILA TONIGHT WITH WINDS OF 100 TO 140 MILES OVER MANUA WEDNESDAY.

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE OLAF ARE CONTINUOUSLY MOVING OVER TUTUILA...AUNUU AND MANUA TONIGHT....CAUSING WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND OVERFLOW OF STREAMS. LANDSLIDES WILL OCCUR DURING HEAVY DOWNPOUR. HURRICANE OLAF HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDE THAT WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA MUST TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE OLAF.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 12 AM WEDNESDAY.

____

CYCLONE NANCY
Cyclone Nancy continues to weaken and is now a weak Category 1 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It is now moving south away from the Cook Islands.

APCEDI has been in touch with the Cyclone Centres on Aitutake and Rarotonga this morning and can report the following:

There have been no reports of injuries or casualties.

Situation on Aitutake (2000 population): People have left shelters and returned home. Clean-up and Assessments are now starting and will continue into tomorrow. The east side of the island has borne the brunt of the storm with many trees down, major tidal surge, some roof damage. Aitutake Lagoon Resort and Spa located just off shore on Akitua Island generally have serious damage from wind and tidal surge.

Situation on Rarotonga (12,000 population): The eastern side of the island has sustained the most damage so far with many trees blocking the main road, power down to much of the east side. At Matavera on the east side damage is bad with many homes damaged and the Cook Islands Church and the SDA Church have lost their rooves. Avarua has been relatively untouched this time. About 100 people were in shelters for much of the morning but have now gone home. Conditions still squally. Assessments will begin later today and tomorrow.

Situation on Mitiaro (230 population) Widespread low-level damage. 3 main houses destroyed. Trees down and all roads blocked. Storm moving away. People have left the shelter. Clean-up and Assessments are now starting and will continue into tomorrow.

Situation on Atiu (620 population)Widespread low-level damage. 4 main houses destroyed. Over 80 large trees down and all roads blocked. Storm moving away. People have left the shelter. Clean-up and Assessments are now starting and will continue into tomorrow.

Situation on Mauke (470 population)Widespread low-level damage. 4 main houses destroyed. Over 80 large trees down and all roads blocked. Storm moving away. Seas very rough. People have left the shelter. Clean-up and Assessments are now starting and will continue into tomorrow.

Situation on Mangaia (1000 population) Mangaia, the southernmost island is still be affected by squally winds and heavy rains this evening. Many trees down. Over 100 people were still in the 5 shelters this evening. Assessments and clean-up will likely start tomorrow.

Cyclone Nancy is now moving away from the Cooks. However, authorities in the Cooks must remain very vigilant to the threat of Cyclone Olaf which is now north of American Samoa. Once it passes through American Samoa, it will move toward the Southern Cooks and could approach in 24-48 hours. Thus authorities should in fact be prepared for a quick double hit by both storms in a short period. This continues to have the potential to be a very dangerous situation for the Southern Cooks.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Nancy.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number EIGHTEEN for Southern Cooks ON TC NANCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 16/0607 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, MANGAIA AND NEARBY
SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, ATIU,
MITIARO, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [965hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3S 159.7W OR ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTH OF RAROTONGA AND ABOUT 100 MILES WESTSOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA AT 160500 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHSOUTHWEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, DECREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE, AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA OR ABOUT 151 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA AT 161100UTC AND ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA OR ABOUT 200 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA AT 161700UTC.

FOR RAROTONGA, MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS GRADUALLY EASING. PERIODS OF RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY EASING. HIGH SEAS ABATING. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS EASING. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS STILL POSSIBLE.

FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, ATIU, MITIARO, MAUKE, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 45 KNOTS, GRADUALLY EASING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS EASING. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS STILLPOSSIBLE.

FOR PALMERSTON: MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. BRIEF SHOWERS. MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Southern Cook Islands will
be issued at 160900 UTC or earlier.
____

NIUE
Authorities in Niue should monitor the situation closely. Cyclone Olaf is just north of Samoa and heading southeast. It is currently forecasted to pass well to the northeast of Niue, but a slight shift to the west could bring Niue into target. It is likely that watches and warnings will be upgraded for Niue in 24-36 hours.

TOKELAU
Authorities in Tokelau should monitor the situation closely. The forecast path of Olaf brings it fairly far south of the main island groups, and with the current southeastward trend, Olaf is now moving away from the islands. Very rough seas will remain for some time.

TONGA
The Northern Islands Group of the Niuas could expect to feel the outer effects of Cyclone Olaf, once it passes through Samoa.

TUVALU and WALLIS AND FUTUNA
Authorities in Tuvalu and Wallis and Futuna are seeing the cyclones moving away from their island groups, but should be vigilant in case of a significant reversal in direction. Seas will be quite rough in much of this area.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
Depending on how the systems cross through the Cook Islands, either could pose a potential threat to the Austral Group and other southern islands of French Polynesia in 48-72 hours.

Good satellite image for both systems together.

Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Hurricane Mitch of 1998 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity over the western Caribbean. Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is one of the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclones of record.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these tropical systems.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #14, 2005: DUAL CYCLONES NANCY AND OLAF CONTINUE BATTERING SOUTHERN COOKS, SAMOA AND AMERICAN SAMOA

Super-Cyclone Olaf is continues to be situated north of Savai'i, the westernmost, major island of Samoa. It is currently causing intermittent heavy squalls across much of Samoa and American Samoa. Olaf has slowed considerably in the last 12 hours, and but it appears to be maintaining its overall southeastward movement. It will continue to track north of Savai'i and Upolu, Samoa's two main islands for the next 2-4 hours in the direction of Tutuila, the main island of American Samoa.

Cyclone Nancy has caused damage on Aitutake, Rarotonga, Mitiaro, Atiu, Mauke and Mangaia and continues to batter the southernmost islands of the Southern Cooks. This continues to be a critically dangerous situation for Samoa and American Samoa. Niue and the Cook Islands must now watch OIaf very carefully to see which direction it will take once it passes American Samoa.

Watches and warnings continue over a wide area of the South Pacific covering a record 8 countries as follows:

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR ALL NORTHERN COOK WATERS.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR MANUAE, ATIU,MITIARO, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI.

SAMOA:
HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL OF SAMOA
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT

AMERICAN SAMOA:
A HURRICANE WARNING FOR AMERICAN SAMOA REMAINS IN EFFECT

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS.

TONGA
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA WATERS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE WATERS.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.
----

SUPER-CYCLONE OLAF
Super-Cyclone Olaf slowed down considerable last night as it was approaching Savai'i and has continued a slower motion this morning and afternoon, but seems to be picking up speed again this afternoon and moving east to southeast at 13 kt. It is now located about 170 miles (275 kms) northwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa or 120 miles (195 kms) northwest of Apia, Samoa. Olaf's intensity models vary at this point, but overall it is forecast to maintain strength and maintain a southeast track toward Samoa and American Samoa. It is now a very strong Category 4 Super Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and is forecast to be a Category 4/5 Cyclone in 6-12 hours by the time it is predicted to move near or over America Samoa.

At this forecast track and intensity, Olaf would pass just north of Apia and then near to or over Pago Pago as a Category 4/5 Cyclone later today or early tomorrow. The speed at which Olaf passes through the Samoa Groups will also be critical as any slow down in speed would result in increased rainfall that could cause significant flash flooding of rivers and creeks on the larger, mountainous islands of Savai'i, Upolu and Tutuila. Also north and northeast facing coasts of the larger islands will be highly vulnerable to major tidal surges over the next 4-10 hours.

All concerns and authorities in Samoa and American Samoa should have finalised preparation activities consistent with a Category 4/5 Super Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. After Samoa, Olaf is forecast to head toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 4 Cyclone. This area will have already been affected by Cyclone Nancy plus the effects from Cyclone Meena earlier in the month. Niue may also get a glancing blow from the storm. This continues to be a critically dangerous situation for Samoa and American Samoa, and the Cooks and Niue must now be very vigilant.

Authorities in Samoa and American Samoa worked all day yesterday to rush preparedness operations to a finish. Both Governments and NDMOs have had a number of special meetings yesterday to prepare for the oncoming situation. The Government in Samoa has declared a State of Emergency. All airports in both countries shut down at 5:00 PM local time yesterday due to the approaching cyclone and all flights have been cancelled or rerouted. All schools have been closed as well as most public and private operations. Radio reports have been warning all residents for the past 48 hours, and most coastal businesses and homes have largely boarded up, and everyone is awaiting the arrival of the storm.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Olaf.

SAMOA ALERT FROM SAMOA METEOROLOGY DIVISION

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER TWENTY FIVE (25) FOR SAMOA ISSUED BY SAMOA METEOROLOGY SERVICES AT 160130Z OR 2:30 P.M. 15th FEBRUARY 2005.

…… HURRICANE WARNING IS REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL OF SAMOA ….

OLAF WAS RELOCATED NEAR 12.3 SOUTH 172.6 WEST OR 68 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF AVAO AND 105 MILES NORTHWEST OF APIA AT 152300Z OR 12:00 P.M THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF REMAINS IN ITS CURRENT STRENGTH AND ITS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 12 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 MPH NEAR THE CENTRE WITH GUSTS OF 150 MPH AT TIMES.

IF OLAF CONTINUES ON ITS PROJECTED TRACK IT WILL RELOCATED AT ABOUT 28 MILES EAST OF AVAO AND 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF APIA AT 160300Z OR 4:P.M.

FOR SAMOA: FOR SAVAI'I: GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 65 MPH WILL AFFECTS MOST OF SAVAII AND HURRICANCE FORCE WINDS OF 70 TO 120 GUSTING UP TO 150 MPH WILL AFFECT THE NORTHEAST AREAS OF SAVAII OR MOSTLY OF THE ITU O TANE IN THE NEXT SIX (6) TO 12 HOURS.

FOR UPOLU: GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 65 MPH ARE EXPECTING TO AFFECTS NORTHERN SIDE OF UPOLU FROM AFTERNOON WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 70 TO 120 GUSTING UP TO 150 MPH AFFECTS THE WHOLE ISLAND FROM TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND OVERFLOWING RIVERS IN THE EVENING.

ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH SIGNIFICANT SWELLS DEVELOPING AND COASTAL STORM SURGE EXPECTED OF ABOUT 15-20 FEET AFFECTING LOW LYING NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS.

AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

WTZS81 NSTU 152315
HLSZS1
ASZ001>003-160200-

BULLETIN
...IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF...LOCAL STATEMENT 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
3 PM SST TUE FEB 15 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE OLAF HEADING TOWARD AMERICAN SAMOA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
...A HURRICANE WARNING FOR AMERICAN SAMOA REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT...

...STORM INFORMATION...
HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED AT 12.3 SOUTH 172.2 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES NORTHWEST OF TUTUILA AT 2 PM SST TUESDAY. HURRICANE OLAF WITH WINDS OF 140 MPH AND GUSTS TO 170 MPH NEAR THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 MPH. IF HURRICANE OLAF MAINTAIN THIS TRACK WILL MOVE IT CLOSE TO TUTUILA TONIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND TIDE IMPACTS...
THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS VERY DESTRUCTIVE SEAS OF 15 TO 25 FEET WILL GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS AND DAMAGING SURF OF 30 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. COASTAL FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORES IS IMMINENT. ALL SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD STAY IN PORT.

...WIND INFORMATION...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL ISLANDS THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS UP TO 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS COULD AFFECT TUTUILA AND MANUA TUESDAY NIGHT AS HURRICANE OLAF MOVE CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS TONIGHT.

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OVER AMERICAN SAMOA TODAY...CAUSING WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND OVERFLOW OF STREAMS. LANDSLIDES WILL OCCUR DURING HEAVY DOWNPOUR. HURRICANE OLAF HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDE THAT WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA MUST TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE OLAF.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM TUESDAY.
____

CYCLONE NANCY
Cyclone Nancy continues to weaken and is now a weak Category 2 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. However, the weakening trend is very slow, and Nancy is forecast to remain a Category 1/2 Cyclone as it exits from the Cooks. It is now moving southwest at 14 kt. It currently lies about 65 miles (105 km) southeast of Rarotonga and 110 miles (170 km) west of Mangaia.

APCEDI has been in touch with the Cyclone Centres on Aitutake and Rarotonga this morning and can report the following:

There have been no reports of injuries or casualties.

Situation on Aitutake (2000 population): Cyclone is now moving away. People have left shelters and are returning home. Clean-up and Assessments are now starting and will continue into tomorrow. The east side of the island has borne the brunt of the storm with many trees down, major tidal surge, some roof damage. Aitutake Lagoon Resort and Spa located just off shore on Akitua Island generally have serious damage from wind and tidal surge.

Situation on Rarotonga (12,000 population): The eastern side of the island has sustained the most damage so far with many trees blocking the main road, power down to much of the east side. At Matavera on the east side damage is bad with many homes damaged and the Cook Islands Church and the SDA Church have lost their rooves. Avarua has been relatively untouched this time. About 100 people were in shelters for much of the morning but are now starting to go home. Conditions still squally. Assessments will begin later today and tomorrow.

Situation on Mitiaro (230 population) Widespread low-level damage. 3 main houses destroyed. Trees down and all roads blocked. Storm moving away. People have left the shelter. Clean-up and Assessments are now starting and will continue into tomorrow.

Situation on Atiu (620 population)Widespread low-level damage. 4 main houses destroyed. Over 80 large trees down and all roads blocked. Storm moving away. People have left the shelter. Clean-up and Assessments are now starting and will continue into tomorrow.

Situation on Mauke (470 population)Widespread low-level damage. 4 main houses destroyed. Over 80 large trees down and all roads blocked. Storm moving away. Seas very rough. People have left the shelter. Clean-up and Assessments are now starting and will continue into tomorrow.

Situation on Mangaia (1000 population) Mangaia is still be affected by high winds and heavy rains. Many trees down. Most people who live along the coast have gone to shelters or moved to inland houses. Assessments will likely start tomorrow.

Cyclone Nancy is now moving away from the Cooks. However, authorities in the Cooks should remain very much aware that Cyclone Olaf is forecast to be following on the heels of Cyclone Nancy as a another major cyclone, in about 24-48 hours. Thus authorities should in fact be prepared for a quick double hit by both storms in a 24-72 hour period. This continues to have the potential to be a very dangerous situation for the Southern Cooks.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Nancy.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number FIFTEEN for Southern Cooks ON TC NANCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 15/2128 UTC 2005 UTC.

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR MANUAE, ATIU, MITIARO, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [970hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8S 158.9W OR ABOUT 57 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF RAROTONGA AND ABOUT 85 MILES NORTHWEST OF MANGAIA AT 152100 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 14 KNOTS. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, DECREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE, AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 90 MILES WESTSOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA OR ABOUT 83 MILES SOUTHSOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA AT 160900UTC AND ABOUT 121 MILES SOUTH OF RAROTONGA OR ABOUT 136 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA AT 161500UTC AND ABOUT.

FOR MANGAIA, RAROTONGA, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: WINDS INCREASING TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 50 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 70 KNOTS, EASING LATER TODAY. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS, EASING LATER TODAY. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR MANUAE, ATIU, MITIARO, MAUKE, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 TO 55 KNOTS GRADUALLY EASING. PERIODS OF RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY EASING. VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS STILL EXPECTED.

FOR AITUTAKI: SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 45 KNOTS, GRADUALLY EASING. SOME SHOWERS EASING LATER TODAY. VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS STILL LIKELY.

FOR PALMERSTON: MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. BRIEF SHOWERS. MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Southern Cook Islands will be issued at 160000 UTC or earlier.
____

NIUE
Authorities in Niue should monitor the situation closely. Cyclone Olaf is just north of Samoa and heading southeast. It is currently forecasted to pass well to the northeast of Niue, but a slight shift to the west could bring Niue into target. It is likely that watches and warnings will be upgraded for Niue in 24-36 hours.

TOKELAU
Authorities in Tokelau should monitor the situation closely. The forecast path of Olaf brings it fairly far south of the main island groups, and with the current southeastward trend, Olaf is now moving away from the islands. Very rough seas will remain for some time.

TONGA
The Northern Islands Group of the Niuas could expect to feel the outer effects of Cyclone Olaf, once it passes through Samoa.

TUVALU and WALLIS AND FUTUNA
Authorities in Tuvalu and Wallis and Futuna are seeing the cyclones moving away from their island groups, but should be vigilant in case of a significant reversal in direction. Seas will be quite rough in much of this area.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
Depending on how the systems cross through the Cook Islands, either could pose a potential threat to the Austral Group and other southern islands of French Polynesia in 48-72 hours.

Good satellite image for both systems together.

Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these tropical systems.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #13, 2005: DUAL CYCLONES NANCY AND OLAF BATTERING SOUTHERN COOKS, SAMOA AND AMERICAN SAMOA

Super-Cyclone Olaf is impacting on Savai'i, the westernmost, major island of Samoa. It will continue to track across the rest of Samoa and American Samoa throughout today. Cyclone Nancy has caused damage on Aitutake, Rarotonga, Mitiaro, Atiu and Mauke and continues to batter the Southern Cooks. This continues to be a critically dangerous situation for Samoa, American Samoa and the Southern Cooks. Watches and warnings continue over a wide area of the South Pacific covering a record 8 countries as follows:

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR ALL NORTHERN COOK WATERS.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MANUAE, ATIU, MITIARO, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, MANGAIA, NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI.
THE STRONG WIND WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON IS NOW CANCELLED.

SAMOA:
HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL OF SAMOA

AMERICAN SAMOA:
A HURRICANE WARNING FOR AMERICAN SAMOA REMAINS IN EFFECT

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS.

TONGA
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA WATERS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE WATERS.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

----
CYCLONE NANCY
Cyclone Nancy has weakened to a strong Category 2 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale overnight perhaps due to continuing interaction with more powerful Olaf to the northwest. However, the weakening trend is very slow, and Nancy is forecast to remain a strong Category 2 Cyclone. It is now moving southwest at 15 kt. It currently lies about 65 miles (105 km) northeast of Rarotonga and 100 miles (160 km) northnorthwest of Mangaia.

APCEDI has been in touch with the Cyclone Centres on Aitutake and Rarotonga this morning and can report the following:

There have been no reports of injuries or casualties.

Situation on Aitutake (2000 population): All preparations have been completed. Tourists have been evacuated from resorts, and many have been taken to Rarotonga. Some tourists have decided to ride out the cyclone on Aitutake. Radio announcements have been going out all day for people to evacuate from low-lying and coastal areas. Six Safety Houses (cyclone shelters) have now been opened, and over 250 of the islands 2000 residents have sought safety in these. The Cyclone Centre has all municipal workers on standby, ready to assist when storm hits. The east side of the island has borne the brunt of the storm with many trees down, major tidal surge, some roof damage. Pearl Beach Hotel has serious damage from wind and tidal surge. Winds on the east side are now sustained at 10-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots, with intermittent rain. Clean-up will begin later today.

Situation on Rarotonga (12,000 population): All preparations have been completed. Six shelters are being opened, and but only about 10 people have come in, but more people may come in if the conditions begin to deteriorate later. The Cyclone Centre is fully operational and monitoring the situation very closely. Winds are starting to gust to 60-80 kt with intermittent heavy rain squalls. The eastern side of the island has sustained the most damage so far with many trees blocking the main road, power down to much of the east side.

Situation on Mitiaro (230 population) Widespread low-level damage. 3 main houses destroyed. Trees down and all roads blocked. Winds still gusting 60-90 kt. 1 Shelter is open with many persons being housed.

Situation on Atiu (620 population)Widespread low-level damage. 4 main houses destroyed. Over 80 large trees down and all roads blocked. Winds still gusting 60-80 kt. 1 Shelter is open with many persons being housed.

Situation on Mauke (470 population)Widespread low-level damage. 4 main houses destroyed. Over 80 large trees down and all roads blocked. Winds still gusting 60-70 kt. Seas very rough. 1 Shelter is open with many persons being housed.

Nancy is now moving more southwesterly. Continuation of this movement will likely bring the storm to about 50 miles (80 km) east of Rarotonga, which has already had significant damage from Cyclone Meena a few weeks ago. It is likely that the storm will continue as a strong Category 2 during this time.

All concerns in the Southern Cooks have completed cyclone preparedness measures. Special attention should continue be paid to the coastal zone where much damage has already occurred from Cyclone Meena and seawalls and other protective structures may be damaged or undermined. Authorities in the Cooks should be very much aware that Cyclone Olaf is forecast to be following on the heels of Cyclone Nancy as a another major cyclone, and there may be only 24-48 hours to recover or do any repairs. Thus authorities should in fact be prepared for a quick double hit by both storms in a 24-72 hour period. This is an unusual and very dangerous situation.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Nancy.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number FOURTEEN for Southern Cooks ON TC NANCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 15/1758 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, MANGAIA AND IS NOW IN
FORCE FOR MANUAE, ATIU, MITIARO, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [950hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 159.0W OR ABOUT 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF RAROTONGA AND ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHNORTHWEST OF MANGAIA AT 151700 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST
ABOUT 15 KNOTS. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, DECREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE, AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA OR ABOUT 65 MILES WEST OF MANGAIA AT 160300UTC AND ABOUT 80 MILES WESTSOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA OR ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHSOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA AT 160600UTC.

FOR MANUAE, ATIU, MITIARO, MAUKE, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: EXPECT DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 55 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS GRADUALLY EASING. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY EASING. VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR MANGAIA, RAROTONGA, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: WINDS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 50 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 70 KNOTS, EASING LATER TODAY. FREQUENT HEAVY
RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS, EASING LATER TODAY. SEAS BECOMING VERY HIGH. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR AITUTAKI: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 45 KNOTS, GRADUALLY EASING. SOME SHOWERS EASING LATER TODAY. VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS STILL EXPECTED.

FOR PALMERSTON: MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. BRIEF SHOWERS. MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Southern Cook Islands will be issued at 152100 UTC or earlier.
____

SUPER-CYCLONE OLAF
Super-Cyclone Olaf slowed down considerable last night as it was approaching Savai'i. For much of the early morning it was crawling east at 5 kt. However, in the last several hours it seems to have resumed its onslaught on Samoa and American Samoa. It is now tracking southeast at 10 kt toward Samoa about 205 miles (330 kms) northwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa or 135 miles (220 kms) northwest of Asau, Savai'i. Olaf is moving eastsoutheast at 13 kt. Olaf's intensity models vary at this point, but overall it is forecast to maintain strength and maintain a southeast track toward Samoa and American Samoa. It is now a very strong Category 4 Super Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and is forecast to be a Category 4/5 Cyclone in 6-12 hours by the time it is predicted to move near or over Samoa and America Samoa later today.

At this forecast track and intensity, Olaf would pass very near or over Apia as a Category 4/5 Cyclone on Tuesday late morning or afternoon. All concerns and authorities in Samoa and American Samoa should have finalised preparation activities consistent with a Category 4 Super Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. After Samoa, Olaf is forecast to head toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 3/4 Cyclone. This area will have already been affected by Cyclone Nancy plus the effects from Cyclone Meena earlier in the month. Niue may also get a glancing blow from the storm. This is a critically dangerous situation for Samoa, American Samoa and the Cooks.

Authorities in Samoa and American Samoa have worked all day yesterday to rush preparedness operations to a finish. Both Governments and NDMOs have had a number of special meetings yesterday to prepare for the oncoming situation. All airports in both countries shut down at 5:00 PM local time yesterday due to the approaching cyclone and all flights have been cancelled or rerouted. All schools have been closed as well as most public and private operations. Radio reports have been warning all residents for the past 48 hours, and most coastal businesses and homes have largely boarded up, and everyone is awaiting the arrival of the storm.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Olaf.

SAMOA ALERT FROM SAMOA METEOROLOGY DIVISION

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER TWENTY TWO (22) FOR SAMOA ISSUED BY SAMOA METEOROLOGY SERVICES AT 151630Z OR 5:30 A.M. 15th FEBRUARY 2005.

…… HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL OF SAMOA ….

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF WAS RELOCATED NEAR 12.0 SOUTH 174.1 WEST OR 118 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU AND 173 MILES NORTHWEST OF APIA AT 151500Z OR 4:00 A.M THIS MORNING. TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF REMAINS IN ITS CURRENT STRENGTH AND WAS MOVING WEST IN THE LAST TWO HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHEAST. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 MPH NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 150 MPH IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. OLAF WAS WEAKENING IN THE LAST THREE HOURS BUT IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 18 HOURS.

IF OLAF CONTINUES MOVING ON ITS CURRENT TRACK IT WILL RELOCATE TO 45 NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF ASAU AND ABOUT 27 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF APIA AT 160000Z OR 1:00 P.M THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR SAMOA: 
GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 70 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR SAVAII AND UPOLU WITHIN THE NEXT 3 T0 6 HOURS INCREASING TO HURRICANE FORCE OF 90 TO 120 WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS.

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND OVERFLOWING RIVERS IN THE AFTERNOON.

ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH VERY HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING AND AFFECTING LOW LYING NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS.

AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

WTZS81 NSTU 152000
HLSZS1
ASZ001>003-152300-

BULLETIN
...IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF...LOCAL STATEMENT 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
9 AM SST TUE FEB 15 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE OLAF HEADING TOWARD AMERICAN SAMOA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
...A HURRICANE WARNING FOR AMERICAN SAMOA REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...STORM INFORMATION...
HURRICANE OLAF REMAINS EXTREMELY STRONG WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 140 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 170 MPH NEAR THE CENTER. HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED AT 12.2 SOUTH 173.2 WEST OR ABOUT 200 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO AT 7 AM SST TUESDAY. HURRICANE OLAF WAS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ONLY 10 MPH IN THE LAST 6 HOURS AND IT APPEARS THAT IT IS NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. AT THISMOVEMENT...HURRICANE OLAF WILL BE NEAR TUTUILA TUESDAY EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND TIDE IMPACTS...
THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS VERY DESTRUCTIVE SEAS OF 25 TO 40 FEET WILL GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS AND DAMAGING SURF OF UP TO 50 FT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COASTAL FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORES IS IMMINENT. ALL SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD STAY IN PORT.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT ALL ISLANDS THIS MORNING INCREASING RAPIDLY THROUGHOUT TUESDAY WITH WINDS REACHING 140 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TUESDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS TUESDAY CAUSING WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND OVERFLOW OF STREAMS. LANDSLIDES WILL OCCUR DURING HEAVY DOWNPOUR.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA MUST TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE OLAF.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 12 PM TUESDAY.

NIUE
Authorities in Niue should monitor the situation closely. Cyclone Olaf is approaching from a direction similar to Cyclone Heta last year which devastated the island. It is currently forecasted to pass well to the northeast of Niue, but a slight shift could bring Niue into target. There is also a very small potential for Cyclone Nancy to double back to the southwest and near the island although this is currently not expected. It is likely that watches and warnings will be upgraded for Niue in 24-36 hours.

TOKELAU
Authorities in Tokelau should monitor the situation closely. The forecast path of Olaf brings it fairly far south of the main island groups, and with the current southeastward trend, Olaf is now moving away from the islands. Very rough seas will remain for some time.

TONGA
The Northern Islands Group of the Niuas could expect to feel the outer effects of Cyclone Olaf, once it passes through Samoa.

TUVALU and WALLIS AND FUTUNA
Authorities in Tuvalu and Wallis and Futuna are seeing the cyclones moving away from their island groups, but should be vigilant in case of a significant reversal in direction. Seas will be quite rough in much of this area.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
Depending on how the systems cross through the Cook Islands, either could pose a potential threat to the Austral Group and other southern islands of French Polynesia in 48-72 hours.

Good satellite image for both systems together.

Both Cyclones are major storms capable of very destructive damage to any area that receives a direct or near direct hit.

Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 knots or 178-209 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large tress blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering of floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required.

Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these tropical systems.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #12, 2005: DUAL CYCLONES NANCY AND OLAF START DESTRUCTIVE TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN COOKS, SAMOA AND AMERICAN SAMOA

Super-Cyclone Olaf is now beginning to impact on Savai'i, the westernmost, major island of Samoa. It will continue to track across the rest of Samoa and American Samoa throughout tomorrow. Cyclone Nancy has caused damage on Aitutake and is now affecting the island of Manuae, Takutea and Atiu in the Southern Cooks. This continues to be a critically dangerous situation for Samoa, American Samoa and the Southern Cooks. Watches and warnings continue over a wide area of the South Pacific covering 7 countries as follows:

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR ALL NORTHERN COOK WATERS.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MANUAE, ATIU, MITIARO, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, MANGAIA, NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI.
THE STRONG WIND WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON IS NOW CANCELLED.

SAMOA:
HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL OF SAMOA

AMERICAN SAMOA:
A HURRICANE WARNING FOR AMERICAN SAMOA REMAINS IN EFFECT

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE WATERS.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

----

CYCLONE NANCY
Cyclone Nancy has weakened to a major Category 3 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale perhaps due to continuing interaction with more powerful Olaf to the northwest. However, the weakening trend is very slow, and Nancy is forecast to remain a strong Category 3 Cyclone. It is moving southsoutheast at 20 kt. It currently lies about 70 miles (110 km) eastsoutheast of Aitutaki and 90 miles (145 km) west of Mauke.

APCEDI has been in touch with the Cyclone Centres on Aitutake and Rarotonga and can report the following:

Situation on Aitutake: All preparations have been completed. Tourists have been evacuated from resorts, and many have been taken to Rarotonga. Some tourists have decided to ride out the cyclone on Aitutake. Radio announcements have been going out all day for people to evacuate from low-lying and coastal areas. Six Safety Houses (cyclone shelters) have now been opened, and over 100 of the islands 2000 residents have sought safety in these. The Cyclone Centre has all municipal workers on standby, ready to assist when storm hits. Conditions on the east side of the island have deteriorated rapidly in the last 2-3 hours with many trees down, major tidal surge, some roof damage. Winds on the east side are now sustained at 50-60 knots with gusts to 70-80 knots, and very heavy rain is being reported.

Situation on Rarotonga: All preparations have been completed. Radio announcements have been going out all day across the Southern Cooks for people to evacuate from low-lying and coastal areas. Six shelters are being opened, and people are continuing to come into the shelters. The Cyclone Centre is fully operational and monitoring the situation very closely. Winds are starting to gusts with intermittent rain squalls.

Nancy is now moving more southerly. Continuation of this southerly movement will likely bring the storm to about 60 miles (95 km) east of Rarotonga, which has already had significant damage from Cyclone Meena a few weeks ago. Manuae, Takutea and Atiu will also be very close to the centre of the storm. It is likely that the storm will continue as a strong Category 3 during this time.

All concerns in the Southern Cooks have now largely completed cyclone preparedness measures. Special attention should continue be paid to the coastal zone where much damage has already occurred from Cyclone Meena and seawalls and other protective structures may be damaged or undermined. Authorities in the Cooks should be very much aware that Cyclone Olaf is forecast to be following on the heels of Cyclone Nancy as a another major cyclone, and there may be very little time between storms to recover or do any repairs. Thus authorities should in fact be prepared for a quick double hit by both storms in a 24-48 hour period starting late Monday or Tuesday. This is an unusual and very dangerous situation.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Nancy.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWELVE for Southern Cooks ON TC NANCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 15/1156 UTC 2005 UTC.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MANUAE, ATIU, MITIARO, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, MANGAIA, NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI.

THE STRONG WIND WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON IS NOW CANCELLED.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [950hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 158.6W OR ABOUT 70 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AITUTAKI AND ABOUT 90 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAUKE AT 151100 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ABOUT 20 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 95 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, DECREASING TO 85 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE, AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 65 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF RAROTONGA OR ABOUT 70 MILES NORTHWEST OF MANGAIA AT 152100UTC AND ABOUT 60 MILES WESTSOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA OR ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA AT 160600UTC.

FOR MANUAE, ATIU, MITIARO, MAUKE, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: EXPECT VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 95 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 135 KNOTS. WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM EARLY TOMORROW. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. PHENOMENAL SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR AITUTAKI: EXPECT DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS OF 55 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE EARLY TOMORROW. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED

FOR MANGAIA, RAROTONGA, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: WINDS INCREASING TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 70 TO 85 KNOTS FROM TOMORROW MORNING. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR PALMERSTON: WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. BRIEF SHOWERS. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Southern Cook Islands will be issued at 151500 UTC or earlier.

SUPER-CYCLONE OLAF
Super-Cyclone Olaf continues on its southeast track toward Samoa about 205 miles (330 kms) northwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa or 145 miles (230 kms) northwest of Asau, Savai'i. Olaf is moving eastsoutheast at 13 kt. Olaf is forecast to continue strengthening slightly and maintain a southeast track toward Samoa and American Samoa. It is now a very strong Category 4 Super Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and is forecast to be a Category 4/5 Super Cyclone in 6-18 hours by the time it is predicted to move near or over Samoa and America Samoa later tomorrow. After Samoa, Olaf is forecast to head toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 4/5 Cyclone.

At this forecast track and intensity, Olaf would pass very near or over Apia as a Category 4/5 Cyclone on Tuesday morning. All concerns and authorities in Samoa and American Samoa should now be finalising all preparations activities consistent with a Category 4/5 Super Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. After striking Samoa and American Samoa, Olaf is currently forecast to move toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 4/5 Cyclone. This area will have already been affected by Cyclone Nancy plus the effects from Cyclone Meena earlier in the month. This is a critically dangerous situation for Samoa, American Samoa and the Cooks.

Authorities in Samoa and American Samoa have been working all day to rush preparedness operations to a finish. Both Governments and NDMOs have had a number of special meetings today to prepare for the oncoming situation. The Apia Airport shut down at 5:00 PM local time due to the approaching cyclone and all flights have been cancelled or rerouted. All schools have been closed as well as most public and private operations. Radio reports have been warning all residents for the past 24 hours, and most coastal businesses and homes have spent all day boarding up.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Olaf.

SAMOA ALERT FROM SAMOA METEOROLOGY DIVISION
SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER TWENTY (20) FOR SAMOA ISSUED BY SAMOA METEOROLOGY SERVICES AT 151030Z OR 11:30 P.M TONIGHT. 14th FEBRUARY 2005.

…… HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL OF SAMOA ….

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF WAS RELOCATED NEAR 12.2 SOUTH 174.3 WEST OR 125 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU AND 177 MILES NORTHWEST OF APIA AT 150800Z OR 9:00 P.M THIS EVENING. TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF REMAINS IN ITS CURRENT STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 MPH NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 150 MPH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

IF OLAF CONTINUES MOVING ON ITS CURRENT TRACK IT WILL RELOCATE ABOUT 85 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU AND ABOUT 155 NAUTICAL MILES FROM APIA AT 151200Z OR 1:00 A.M TONIGHT. AT 160000Z OR 1:00 P.M TOMORROW AFTERNOON IT WILL ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH OF APIA. OLAF WAS MOVING AT 10 MPH IN THE LAST THREE HOURS AND EXPECTING TO INCREASE ITS SPEED EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

FOR SAMOA: GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OF 50 TO 70 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT SAVAII TONIGHT INCREASING TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 90 TO 120 MPH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. GALE TO STORM WINDS OF 50 TO 70 MPH AFFECT UPOLU FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND HURRICANE WINDS TOMORROW.

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND OVERFLOWING RIVERS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH VERY HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING AND AFFECTING LOW LYING NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT.

THE PUBLIC ARE ALSO ADVISED OF FLOODS FROM HEAVY FALLS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

WTZS81 NSTU 151100
HLSZS1
ASZ001>003-151400-

BULLETIN
...IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF...LOCAL STATEMENT 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
12 AM SST TUE FEB 14 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE OLAF HEADING TOWARD AMERICAN SAMOA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
...A HURRICANE WARNING FOR AMERICAN SAMOA REMAINS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE IN FORCE.

...STORM INFORMATION...
HURRICANE OLAF REMAINS EXTREMELY STRONG WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 150 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 170 MPH NEAR THE CENTER. HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED AT 12.0 SOUTH 174.3 WEST OR ABOUT 240 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO AT 11 PM SST MONDAY. HURRICANE OLAF WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH...BUT SEEMED TO STALLED IN THE PAST HALF HOUR...IF OLAF MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT MOVEMENT AND SPEED...IT WILL BE NEAR TUTUILA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA MUST TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE OLAF.

...STORM SURGE AND TIDE IMPACTS...
THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS VERY DESTRUCTIVE SEAS OF 25 TO 40 FEET WILL GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS AND DAMAGING SURF OF UP TO 60 FT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COASTAL FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORES IS IMMINENT. ALL SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD STAY IN PORT.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT ALL ISLANDS TONIGHT INCREASING RAPIDLY THROUGHOUT TUESDAY WITH WINDS REACHING 140 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TUESDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS TUESDAY CAUSING WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND OVERFLOW OF STREAMS. LANDSLIDES WILL OCCUR DURING HEAVY DOWNPOUR.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM TUESDAY.

NIUE
Authorities in Niue should monitor the situation closely. Cyclone Olaf is approaching from a direction similar to Cyclone Heta last year which devastated the island. It is currently forecasted to pass well to the northeast of Niue, but a slight shift could bring Niue into target. There is also a small potential for Cyclone Nancy to double back to the southwest and near the island although this is currently not expected. It is likely that watches and warnings will be upgraded for Niue in 24-36 hours.

TOKELAU
Authorities in Tokelau should monitor the situation closely. The forecast path of Olaf brings it fairly far south of the main island groups, and with the current southeastward trend, Olaf is now moving away from the islands. Very rough seas will remain for some time.

TONGA
The Northern Islands Group of the Niuas could expect to feel the outer effects of Cyclone Olaf, once it passes through Samoa.

TUVALU and WALLIS AND FUTUNA
Authorities in Tuvalu and Wallis and Futuna are seeing the cyclones moving away from their island groups, but should be vigilant in case of a significant reversal in direction. Seas will be quite rough in much of this area.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
Depending on how the systems cross through the Cook Islands, either could pose a potential threat to the Austral Group and other southern islands of French Polynesia in 48-72 hours.

Good satellite image for both systems together.

Both Cyclones are now major storms capable of very destructive damage to any area that receives a direct or near direct hit.

Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 knots or 178-209 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large tress blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering of floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required.

Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these tropical systems.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #11, 2005: DUAL CYCLONES NANCY AND OLAF POISED TO GIVE MAJOR HIT TO SOUTHERN COOKS, SAMOA AND AMERICAN SAMOA

Super-Cyclone Olaf is now within 12 hours of impacting Samoa and American Samoa and Cyclone Nancy is already causing coastal damage to Aitutake in the Southern Cooks. Olaf could possible intensify further while Nancy seems to have peaked for the moment. This continues to be a critically dangerous situation for Samoa, American Samoa and the Southern Cooks. Watches and warnings continue over a wide area of the South Pacific covering 7 countries as follows:

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR ALL NORTHERN COOK WATERS.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, ATIU, MITIARO, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA AND RAROTONGA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

SAMOA:
HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL OF SAMOA FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS

AMERICAN SAMOA:
A HURRICANE WARNING FOR AMERICAN SAMOA REMAINS IN EFFECT

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE WATERS.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

----
CYCLONE NANCY
Cyclone Nancy remains a major Category 3/4 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Latest reports have noted that Nancy seems to have peaked in intensity, and it may weaken slightly overnight. It is moving southsoutheast at 16 kt. It currently lies about 70 miles (110 km) northnortheast of Aitutaki and 207 miles (330 km) north of Rarotonga.

APCEDI has been in touch with the Cyclone Centres on Aitutake and Rarotonga and can report the following:

Situation on Aitutake: All preparations have been completed. Tourists have been evacuated from resorts, and many have been taken to Rarotonga. Some tourists have decided to ride out the cyclone on Aitutake. Radio announcements have been going out all day for people to evacuate from low-lying and coastal areas. Six Safety Houses (cyclone shelters) have now been opened, and over 100 of the islands 2000 residents have sought safety in these. The Cyclone Centre has all municipal workers on standby, ready to assist when storm hits. Conditions on the east side of the island have deteriorated rapidly in the last 2-3 hours with many trees down, major tidal surge, some roof damage. Winds on the east side are now sustained at 50-60 knots with gusts to 70-80 knots, and very heavy rain is being reported.

Situation on Rarotonga: All preparations have been completed. Radio announcements have been going out all day across the Southern Cooks for people to evacuate from low-lying and coastal areas. Six shelters are being opened, and people are continuing to come into the shelters. The Cyclone Centre is fully operational and monitoring the situation very closely. Winds are starting to gusts with intermittent rain squalls.

Nancy is now moving south. Continuation of this southerly movement will likely bring the storm over or very near Aitutake and Rarotonga both of which have had significant damage from Cyclone Meena. Manuae, Takutea and Atiu will also be very close to the centre of the storm. It is likely that the storm will continue to be s strong Category 3/4 during this time.

All concerns in the Southern Cooks have now largely completed cyclone preparedness measures. Special attention should continue be paid to the coastal zone where much damage has already occurred from Cyclone Meena and seawalls and other protective structures may be damaged or undermined. Authorities in the Cooks should be very much aware that Cyclone Olaf is forecast to be following on the heels of Cyclone Nancy as a another major cyclone, and there may be very little time between storms to recover or do any repairs. Thus authorities should in fact be prepared for a quick double hit by both storms in a 24-48 hour period starting late Monday or Tuesday. This is an unusual and very dangerous situation.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Nancy.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number TEN for Southern Cooks ON TC NANCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 15/0641 UTC 2005 UTC.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, ATIU,
MITIARO, MAUKE, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, MANGAIA AND NEARBY
SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [945hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8S 159.2W OR ABOUT 70 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF AITUTAKI AND ABOUT 207 MILES NORTH OF RAROTONGA AT 150600 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ABOUT 16 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SOUTH. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, DECREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE, AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 85 MILES NORTHEAST OF RAROTONGA OR 88 MILES WEST OF MAUKE AT 151800UTC AND ABOUT 48 MILES WEST OF MANGAIA OR ABOUT 73 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA AT 160600UTC.

FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, ATIU, MITIARO, MAUKE, MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: WINDS INCREASING TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 90 TO 100 KNOTS GUSTING 130 TO 145 KNOTS FROM THIS EVENING.FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. PHENOMENAL SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR MANGAIA AND RAROTONGA: WINDS INCREASING TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS GUSTING 70 TO 85 KNOTS FROM TOMORROW MORNING. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR PALMERSTON: SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS. SOME RAIN WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Southern Cook Islands will be issued at 150900 UTC
_____

SUPER-CYCLONE OLAF
Super-Cyclone Olaf continues on its southeast track toward Samoa about 276 miles (444 kms) northwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa or 210 miles (335 kms) northwest of Asau, Savai'i. Olaf is moving eastsoutheast at 13 kt. Olaf is forecast to continue strengthening slightly and maintain a southeast track toward Samoa and American Samoa. It is now a very strong Category 4 Super Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and is forecast to be a Category 4/5 Super Cyclone in 12-24 hours by the time it is predicted to move near or over Samoa and America Samoa later tomorrow. After Samoa, Olaf is forecast to head toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 4/5 Cyclone.

At this forecast track and intensity, Olaf would pass very near or over Apia as a Category 4/5 Cyclone on Tuesday morning. All concerns and authorities in Samoa and American Samoa should now be finalising all preparations activities consistent with a Category 4/5 Super Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. After striking Samoa and American Samoa, Olaf is currently forecast to move toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 4/5 Cyclone. This area will have already been affected by Cyclone Nancy plus the effects from Cyclone Meena earlier in the month. This is a critically dangerous situation for Samoa, American Samoa and the Cooks.

Authorities in Samoa and American Samoa have been working all day to rush preparedness operations to a finish. Both Governments and NDMOs have had a number of special meetings today to prepare for the oncoming situation. The Apia Airport shut down at 5:00 PM local time due to the approaching cyclone and all flights have been cancelled or rerouted. All schools have been closed as well as most public and private operations. Radio reports have been warning all residents for the past 24 hours, and most coastal businesses and homes have spent all day boarding up.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Olaf.

SAMOA ALERT FROM SAMOA METEOROLOGY DIVISION

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER EIGHTEEN (18) FOR SAMOA ISSUED BY SAMOA METEOROLOGY SERVICES AT 150430Z OR 5:30 THIS AFTERNOON. 14th FEBRUARY 2005.

…… HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL OF SAMOA FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS ……

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF WAS RELOCATED NEAR 11.4 SOUTH 174.8 WEST OR 172 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU AT 150300Z OR 4:00 P.M THIS EVENING. TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF REMAINS INTENSIFYING IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH, EXPECTING TO SLOWDOWN TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 140 MPH NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 145 MPH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

IT OLAF CONTINUES MOVING ON ITS CURRENT TRACK IT WILL RELOCATE TO OVER SAMOA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND RELOCATE TO 121 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHEAST OF APIA AT 1:00 A.M. WEDNESDAY 16th.

IF MOVEMENT IS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE DELAYED.

FOR SAMOA :

NORTHEAST GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT SAVAII FROM 7:00 AM TOMORROW INCREASING TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLIER. 

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND OVERFLOWING RIVERS. 

ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING AFFECTING LOW LYING NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS.

THE PUBLIC ARE ALSO ADVISED OF POSSIBLE FLOODS FROM HEAVY FALLS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

WTZS81 NSTU 150800
HLSZS1
ASZ001>003-151100-

BULLETIN
...IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF...LOCAL STATEMENT 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
9 PM SST MON FEB 14 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE OLAF HEADING TOWARD AMERICAN SAMOA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
...A HURRICANE WARNING FOR AMERICAN SAMOA REMAINS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE IN FORCE.

...STORM INFORMATION...
HURRICANE OLAF REMAINS EXTREMELY STRONG WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 150 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 170 MPH NEAR THE CENTER. HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED AT 12.0 SOUTH 174.5 WEST OR ABOUT 240 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO AT 7 PM SST MONDAY. HURRICANE OLAF IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH...IF OLAF MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT MOVEMENT AND SPEED...IT WILL BE NEAR TUTUILA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA MUST TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE OLAF.

...STORM SURGE AND TIDE IMPACTS...
THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS VERY DESTRUCTIVE SEAS OF 25 TO 40 FEET WILL GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS AND DAMAGING SURF OF UP TO 60 FT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COASTAL FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORES IS IMMINENT. ALL SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD STAY IN PORT.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT ALL ISLANDS TONIGHT INCREASING RAPIDLY THROUGHOUT TUESDAY WITH WINDS REACHING 140 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TUESDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS TUESDAY CAUSING WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND OVERFLOW OF STREAMS. LANDSLIDES WILL OCCUR DURING HEAVY DOWNPOUR.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 12 AM TUESDAY.

-----
NIUE
Authorities in Niue should monitor the situation closely. Cyclone Olaf is approaching from a direction similar to Cyclone Heta last year which devastated the island. It is currently forecasted to pass well to the northeast of Niue, but a slight shift could bring Niue into target. There is also a small potential for Cyclone Nancy to double back to the southwest and near the island although this is currently not expected. It is likely that watches and warnings will be upgraded for Niue in 24-36 hours.

TOKELAU
Authorities in Tokelau should monitor the situation closely. The forecast path of Olaf brings it fairly far south of the main island groups, and with the current southeastward trend, Olaf is now moving away from the islands. Very rough seas will remain for some time.

TONGA
The Northern Islands Group of the Niuas could expect to feel the outer effects of Cyclone Olaf, once it passes through Samoa.

TUVALU and WALLIS AND FUTUNA
Authorities in Tuvalu and Wallis and Futuna are seeing the cyclones moving away from their island groups, but should be vigilant in case of a significant reversal in direction. Seas will be quite rough in much of this area.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
Depending on how the systems cross through the Cook Islands, either could pose a potential threat to the Austral Group and other southern islands of French Polynesia in 48-72 hours.

Good satellite image for both systems together.

Both Cyclones are now major storms capable of very destructive damage to any area that receives a direct or near direct hit.

Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these tropical systems.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #10, 2005: Dual Cyclones Nancy and Olaf Continue to Pose CRITICAL SITUATION FOR COOKS, SAMOA AND AMERICAN SAMOA

Super-Cyclone Olaf continues to bear down on Samoa and American Samoa and Cyclone Nancy continues to bear down on the Southern Cooks. Olaf is still intensifying, however, Nancy seems to have peaked as a Category 4 storm. This continues to be a critically dangerous situation for Samoa, American Samoa and the Southern Cooks. Watches and warnings continue over a wide area of the South Pacific covering 7 countries as follows:

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR ALL NORTHERN COOK WATERS.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, ATIU, MITIARO, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA AND RAROTONGA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

SAMOA:
HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL OF SAMOA FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS

AMERICAN SAMOA:
GALE WARNING EFFECTIVE TODAY
A STORM WATCH FOR ALL ISLANDS EFFECTIVE TONIGHT
A HURRICANE WATCH EFFECTIVE TUESDAY

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE WATERS.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.
______

CYCLONE NANCY
Cyclone Nancy has strengthened into a major Category 4 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Latest reports have noted that Nancy seems to have peaked in intensity. It is moving south southeast at 14 kt. It currently lies about 105 miles (167 km) northnorthwest of Aitutaki and 247 miles (400 km) north of Rarotonga.

APCEDI has been in touch with the Cyclone Centres on Aitutake and Rarotonga and can report the following:

Situation on Aitutake: All preparations have been completed. Tourists have been evacuated from resorts, and many have been taken to Rarotonga. Some tourists have decided to ride out the cyclone on Aitutake. Radio announcements have been going out all day for people to evacuate from low-lying and coastal areas. Two shelters are being opened, but no numbers yet on people there. The Cyclone Centre has all municipal workers on standby, ready to assist when storm hits.

Situation on Rarotonga: All preparations have been completed. Radio announcements have been going out all day across the Southern Cooks for people to evacuate from low-lying and coastal areas. Eight shelters are being opened, and people are beginning to come into the shelters. The Cyclone Centre is fully operational and monitoring the situation very closely.

All concerns in the Southern Cooks have now largely completed Cyclone Preparedness Measures in line for a major Category 4 Cyclone . Special attention should continue be taken along the coastal zone where much damage has already occurred from Cyclone Meena and seawalls and other protective structures may be damaged or undermined. Authorities in the Cooks should be very much aware that Cyclone Olaf is forecast to be following on the heels of Cyclone Nancy as a another major cyclone, and there may be very little time between storms to recover or do any repairs. Thus authorities should in fact be prepared for a quick double hit by both storms in a 24-48 hour period starting late Monday or Tuesday. This is an unusual and increasingly very dangerous situation, but with the same careful planning shown during Cyclone Meena earlier this month, the Cooks can be ready.

The models continue to be divergent on which way Nancy will pass through the Cooks and how fast. Nancy has however finally started its long overdue southern turn. Continuation of this southern turn will likely bring the storm over or near Aitutake and Rarotonga both of which have had significant damage from Cyclone Meena. However, a more continued eastern component could bring the storm more over Manuae, Atiu, Mitiaro and Mauke. It is likely that the storm will be Category 3/4 during this time regardless of the ultimate direction. Palmerston Atoll (approximate population 50) to the northwest has had a fortuitous escape as the southern turn has come quite late leaving the storm well to the north and east of this low-lying atoll.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Nancy.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number NINE for Southern Cooks ON TC NANCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 15/0322 UTC 2005 UTC.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, ATIU, MITIARO, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA AND RAROTONGA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [940hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 159.6W OR ABOUT 105 MILES NORTH OF AITUTAKI AND ABOUT 247 MILES NORTH OF RAROTONGA AT 150300 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ABOUT 14 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SOUTH. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, DECREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE, AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 67 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AITUTAKI OR 118 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF RAROTONGA AT 151500 UTC AND ABOUT 58 MILES WEST OF MAUKE OR ABOUT 61 MILES SOUTHHEAST OF RAROTONGA AT 160300UTC.

FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, ATIU, MITIARO, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: WINDS INCREASING TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 100 KNOTS GUSTING 145 KNOTS FROM THIS EVENING. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. PHENOMENAL SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR MANGAIA AND RAROTONGA: WINDS INCREASING TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 60 KNOTS GUSTING 85 KNOTS FROM TOMORROW MORNING. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
SEAS BECOMING VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR PALMERSTON: SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS. SOME RAIN WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 150600UTC OR EARLIER.
_____

SUPER-CYCLONE OLAF
Super-Cyclone Olaf continues to make its southeast turn towards Samoa about 345 miles (555 kms) northwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa or 261 miles (420 kms) northwest of Asau, Savai'i. Olaf is moving eastsoutheast at 10 kt. Olaf is forecast to continue strengthening and maintain a southeast track toward Samoa and American Samoa. It is now a very strong Category 4 Super Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and is forecast to be a Category 4/5 Super Cyclone in 12-24 hours by the time it is predicted to move near or over Samoa and America Samoa. After Samoa, Olaf is forecast to head toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 4/5 Cyclone.

At this forecast track and intensity, Olaf would pass very near or over Apia as a Category 4/5 Cyclone on Tuesday morning. All concerns and authorities in Samoa and American Samoa should now be finalising all preparations activities consistent with a Category 4/5 Super Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. After striking Samoa and American Samoa, Olaf is currently forecast to move toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 4/5 Cyclone. This area will have already been affected by Cyclone Nancy plus the effects from Cyclone Meena earlier in the month. This is a critically dangerous situation for Samoa, American Samoa and the Cooks.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Olaf.

SAMOA ALERT FROM SAMOA METEOROLOGY DIVISION

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER EIGHTEEN (18) FOR SAMOA ISSUED BY SAMOA METEOROLOGY SERVICES AT 150530Z OR 2:30 THIS AFTERNOON. 14th FEBRUARY 2005.

…… HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL OF SAMOA FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS ……

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF WAS RELOCATED NEAR 10.5 SOUTH 175.5 WEST OR 227 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU AT 142300Z OR 11:00 A.M THIS MORNING. TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 12 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 150 MPH NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 170 MPH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

IF OLAF CONTINUES MOVING ON ITS CURRENT TRACK IT WILL RELOCATE TO ABOUT 12.7 SOUTH 173.4 WEST OR ABOUT 150 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU AT 150600Z OR 7:00 P.M TONIGHT. IT WILL RELOCATE TO ABOUT 14.2 SOUTH 171.9 WEST OR ABOUT 10 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF APIA AT 151700Z OR 6 A.M. TOMORROW MORNING. IF MOVEMENT IS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE DELAYED TO ABOUT MIDDAY.

FOR SAMOA: NORTHEAST GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECTS SAVAII FROM 7:00 PM TONIGHT INCREASING TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT OR EARLIER AND EXPECTING TO TURN NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASES TO 100 TO 120 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOMORROW.

NORTHEAST WINDS OF 35 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTING TO AFFECTS UPOLU FROM 10:00 PM TONIGHT OR EARLIER AND EXPECTING TO TURN NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASES TO 100 TO 120 MPH TOMORROW.

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOOD AT LOW LYING AREAS AND RIVERS FROM OVERFLOW. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING AND IT WILL AFFECTS LOW LYING NORTHERN FACE COASTAL AREA.

PUBLIC ARE ALSO ADVICE THAT POSSIBLE FLOODS FROM HEAVY FALLS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

-----
NIUE
Authorities in Niue should monitor the situation closely. Cyclone Olaf is approaching from a direction similar to Cyclone Heta last year which devastated the island. It is currently forecasted to pass well to the northeast of Niue, but a slight shift could bring Niue into target. There is also a small potential for Cyclone Nancy to double back to the southwest and near the island although this is currently not expected. It is likely that watches and warnings will be upgraded for Niue in 24-36 hours.

TOKELAU
Authorities in Tokelau should monitor the situation closely. The forecast path of Olaf brings it fairly far south of the main island groups, and with the current southeastward trend, Olaf is now moving away from the islands. Very rough seas will remain for some time.

TUVALU, FIJI and WALLIS AND FUTUNA
Authorities in Tuvalu, Fiji and Wallis and Futuna are seeing the cyclones moving away from their island groups, but should be vigilant in case of a significant reversal in direction. Seas will be quite rough in much of this area.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
Depending on how the systems cross through the Cook Islands, either could pose a potential threat to the Austral Group and other southern islands of French Polynesia in 48-72 hours.

Good satellite image for both systems together.

Both Cyclones are now major storms capable of very destructive damage to any area that receives a direct or near direct hit,

Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these tropical systems.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #9, 2005: Dual Cyclones Nancy and Olaf Still Intensifying;CRITICAL SITUATION FOR COOKS, SAMOA AND AMERICAN SAMOA

Dual Cyclones Nancy and Olaf continue to intensify. Nancy is bearing down on the Southern Cooks and Olaf is bearing down on Samoa and American Samoa. Olaf could reach Category 5 Super Cyclone status by the time it hits Samoa and American Samoa, and Nancy is forecast to be a strong Category 4 when it hits Cooks. Thus, this is a critically dangerous situation for Samoa, American Samoa and the Southern Cooks. Watches and warnings continue over a wide area of the South Pacific covering 7 countries as follows:

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR ALL NORTHERN COOK WATERS.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, ATIU, MITIARO, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT AND STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA.

SAMOA:
A STORM WATCH IS NOW IN FORCE FOR ALL AREAS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 48 HOURS
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS

AMERICAN SAMOA:
A GALE WARNING EFFECTIVE TODAY
A STORM WATCH FOR ALL ISLANDS EFFECTIVE TONIGHT
A HURRICANE WATCH EFFECTIVE TUESDAY

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.
______

CYCLONE NANCY
Cyclone Nancy has strengthened into a major Category 3 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and is forecast now to reach Category 4 status in the next 24-28 hours. It has picked up forward speed and is moving southeast at 15 kt. It currently lies about 220 miles (355 km) northeast of Palmerston Atoll in the Southern Cooks and 235 miles (380 km) northnorthwest of Aitutaki.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Nancy.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number SIX for Southern Cooks ON TC NANCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 14/1803 UTC 2005 UTC.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, AIU, MITIARO, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT AND STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [935hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 160.9W OR ABOUT 220 MILES NORTHEAST OF PALMERSTON OR ABOUT 235 MILES NORTHNORTHWEST OF AITUTAKI AT 141700 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTH. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 100 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 140 KNOTS.

ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF AITUTAKI OR 220 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAUKE AT 150500 UTC AND ABOUT 37 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 120 MILES NORTHNORTHEAST OF RAROTONGA AT 151700UTC.

FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, ATIU, MITIARO, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS, INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS 35 TO 40 KNOTS GUSTING 65 KNOTS THIS EVENING. WINDS POSSIBLY INCREASING FURTHER TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE, 70 KNOTS GUSTING 95 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. RAIN WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS, BECOMING HEAVY WITH FREQUENT SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. ROUGH SEAS RISING HIGH TO VERY HIGH TONIGHT. HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS DEVELOPING. SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS LIKELY EARLY TOMORROW.

FOR PALMERSTON: EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS, TURNING SOUTHERLY AND POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS, 30 TO 35 KNOTS GUSTING 50 KNOTS TONIGHT AS THE CYCLONE PASSES TO THE EAST OF PALMERSTON. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS, BECOMING MORE FREQUENT LATER TODAY. ROUGH SEAS RISING TO VERY ROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS DEVELOPING.

FOR RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING 35 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 45 KNOTS LATER TODAY. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OR STRONGER MAY DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW IF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ON A SOUTHWARD TRACK. RAIN BECOMING HEAVY WITH SCATTERED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. ROUGH SEAS RISING TO VERY ROUGH. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS DEVELOPING.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 152100UTC OR EARLIER.

All concerns in the Southern Cooks should be now be undertaking Cyclone Preparedness Measures in line for a major Category 4 Cyclone. This is a very dangerous situation for the Southern Cooks. Preparedness measures should now be completed on Palmerston and Aitutaki, and completed soon on Rarotonga and the all other islands. Special attention should be taken along the coastal zone where much damage has already occurred from Cyclone Meena and seawalls and other protective structures may be damaged or undermined. Authorities in the Cooks should be very much aware that Cyclone Olaf is forecast to be following on the heels of Cyclone Nancy as a another major cyclone, and there may be very little time between storms to recover or do any repairs. Thus authorities should in fact be prepared for a quick double hit by both storms in a 24-48 hour period starting late Monday or Tuesday. This is an unusual and increasingly very dangerous situation, but with the same careful planning shown during Cyclone Meena earlier this month, the Cooks can be ready.

The models continue to be divergent on which way Nancy will pass through the Cooks and how fast. Nancy has continued to have a more easterly component than originally forecast. A southerly turn is still predicted, but now if that should happen as forecast, it will bring the storm over or near Aitutake, Manuae, Takutea and Rarotonga. How each island or atoll fairs will depend on the timing of the forecasted southerly turn. Palmerston Atoll (approximate population 50) has had a fairly fortuitous escape as the southern turn has still not occurred. Now attention turns to Aitutake which is already damaged from Cyclone Meena, earlier this month. On the current forecast track these winds should be at a Category 1/2 level. However, should the southerly turn come in the next few hours, a more direct hit could occur causing winds to be at Category 3/4 levels. With most of the main Cook Islands lying to the south and southeast of Nancy, the exact path and the time of the predicted southern turn now becomes critical.
_____

CYCLONE OLAF
Cyclone Olaf is still located between Tuvalu and Tokelau, about 415 miles (665 kms) northwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa or 400 miles (640 kms) northwest of Asau, Savai'i. Olaf is moving eastsoutheast at 10 kt. Olaf is forecast to continue strengthening and turn southeast. It is now a Category 3/4 cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and is forecast to be a Category 4/5 Super Cyclone in 12-36 hours by the time it is predicted to move near or over Samoa and America Samoa. After Samoa, Olaf is forecast to head toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 4/5 Cyclone.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Olaf.

SAMOA ALERT FROM SAMOA METEOROLOGY DIVISION

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER FIFTEEN (15) FOR SAMOA ISSUED BY SAMOA METEOROLOGY SERVICES AT 141700Z OR 6:00 A.M. 14th FEBRUARY 2005.

……..A STORM WATCH IS IN FORCE FOR SAMOA FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS…..…

…….. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAMOA ………….

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.5 SOUTH 179.6 WEST OR 347 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU AT 141200Z OR 1:00 A.M THIS MORNING. TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND MOVE EAST AT 10 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHEAST. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 MPH NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 135 MPH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

IF OLAF CONTINUES MOVING ON ITS CURRENT TRACK IT WILL RELOCATE TO ABOUT 10.6 SOUTH 175.8WEST OR ABOUT 255 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU AT 150000Z OR 1:00 P.M THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL RELOCATE TO ABOUT 11.8 SOUTH 174.6 WEST OR 155 MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU AT 150900Z OR 10 P.M. TONIGHT.

FOR SAMOA :
NORTEAST WINDS OF 35 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT SAVAII FROM 7:00 PM TONIGHT OR EARLIER, AND ARE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 65 TO 80 MPH LATE AT NIGHT.  NORTHEAST WINDS OF 35 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT UPOLU   FROM 10:00 PM TONIGHT OR EARLIER AND ARE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 65 TO 80 MPH TOMORROW MORNING.  CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AT TIMES WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING WILL AFFECT LOW LYING NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS. THE PUBLIC ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT POSSIBLE FLOODS FROM HEAVY FALLS MAY OCCUR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

At this forecast track and intensity, Olaf would pass very near or over Apia as a Category 4/5 Cyclone on Tuesday morning. All concerns and authorities in Samoa and American Samoa should now be readying preparations consistent with a Category 4/5 Super Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Olaf continues to intensify and is now forecast to be a very destructive Super Cyclone. After striking Samoa and American Samoa, Olaf is currently forecast to move toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 4/5 Cyclone. This area will have already been affected by Cyclone Nancy plus the effects from Cyclone Meena earlier in the month. This is a critically dangerous situation for Samoa, American Samoa and the Cooks.

-----
NIUE
Authorities in Niue should monitor the situation closely. Cyclone Olaf is approaching from a direction similar to Cyclone Heta last year which devastated the island. It is currently forecasted to pass well to the northeast of Niue, but a slight shift could bring Niue into target. There is also a small potential for Cyclone Nancy to double back to the southwest and near the island although this is currently not expected. It is likely that watches and warnings will be upgraded for Niue in 24-36 hours.

TOKELAU
Authorities in Tokelau should monitor the situation closely. The forecast path of Olaf brings it fairly far south of the main island groups, but should Olaf's southerly turn come later than forecast, some of the southern groups could be directly affected.

TUVALU, FIJI and WALLIS AND FUTUNA
Authorities in Tuvalu, Fiji and Wallis and Futuna are seeing the cyclones moving away from their island groups, but should be vigilant in case of a significant reversal in direction. Seas will be quite rough in much of this area.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
Depending on how the system cross through the Cook Islands, either could pose a potential threat to the Austral Group and other southern islands of French Polynesia in 48-72 hours.

Good satellite image for both systems together.

Both Cyclones are now major storms capable of very destructive damage to any area that receives a direct or near direct hit,

Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these tropical systems.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

 

APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #8, 2005: Dual Cyclones Nancy and Olaf Intensify as They Bear Down on Cooks and Samoa

Dual Cyclones Nancy and Olaf continue to intensify. Nancy is bearing down on the Southern Cooks and Olaf is bearing down on Samoa and American Samoa. Both Nancy and Olaf are now major cyclones and are likely to reach Category 3/4 tomorrow, and thus this is a very dangerous situation for Samoa, American Samoa and the Southern Cooks. Watches and warnings continue over a wide area of the South Pacific covering 7 countries as follows:

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR PUKAPUKA, NASSAU AND SUWARROW.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.
A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT AND STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

SAMOA:
A STORM WATCH IS NOW IN FORCE FOR ALL AREAS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS

AMERICAN SAMOA:
A GALE WARNING EFFECTIVE MONDAY FOR ALL AREAS
A STORM WATCH EFFECTIVE MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS
A HURRICANE WATCH EFFECTIVE TUESDAY FOR ALL AREAS

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.
______

CYCLONE NANCY
Cyclone Nancy has strengthened into a major Category 3 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and is forecast now to reach Category 4 status in the next 24-28 hours. It is moving southeast at 9 kt. It currently lies about 85 miles (135 km) southeast of Suwarrow, Northern Cooks and 230 miles (370 km) northnortheast of Palmerston Atoll in the Southern Cooks.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Nancy.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number FIVE for Southern Cooks ON TC NANCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 14/1205 UTC 2005 UTC.

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT AND STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [950hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 162.2W OR ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SUWARROW OR ABOUT 230 MILES NORTHNORTHEAST OF PALMERSTON AT 141200 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 9 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTH. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 95 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 135 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 110 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 150 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY IS INTENSIFYING. ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 190 MILES NORTHEAST OF PALMERSTON OR 205 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF AITUTAKI AT 150000 UTC AND ABOUT 110 MILES NORTHWEST OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 136 MILES EASTNORTHEAST OF PALMERSTON AT 151200UTC.

FOR PALMERSTON: EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS 35 TO 40 KNOTS GUSTING 65 KNOTS DEVELOPING DURING TODAY, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KNOTS GUSTING 70 KNOTS THIS EVENING. RAIN WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS, BECOMING HEAVY WITH FREQUENT SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. ROUGH SEAS RISING TO VERY ROUGH TOMORROW AND BECOMING VERY HIGH THIS EVENING. HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS DEVELOPING.

FOR AITUTAKI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS 35 TO 40 KNOTS GUSTING 65 KNOTS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. RAIN WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS, BECOMING HEAVY WITH FREQUENT SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. ROUGH SEAS RISING TO VERY ROUGH THIS EVENING. HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS DEVELOPING.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING 35 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 45 KNOTS LATER TODAY. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OR STRONGER MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW IF THE CYCLONE TAKES A SOUTHWARD TRACK. RAIN BECOMING HEAVY WITH SCATTERED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS DEVELOPING.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 141500UTC OR EARLIER.

All concerns in the Southern Cooks should be now be undertaking Cyclone Preparedness Measures in line for a major Category 3/4 Cyclone. This is a very dangerous situation for the Southern Cooks. Preparedness measures should now be rushed to completion on Palmerston and Aitutaki, and completed early tomorrow on Rarotonga and the other islands. Special attention should be taken along the coastal zone where much damage has already occurred from Cyclone Meena and seawalls and other protective structures may be damaged or undermined. Authorities in the Cooks should be very much aware that Cyclone Olaf is forecast to be following on the heels of Cyclone Nancy as a another major cyclone, and there may be very little time between storms to recover or do any repairs. Thus authorities should in fact be prepared for a quick double hit by both storms in a 24-48 hour period starting late Monday or Tuesday. This is an unusual and increasingly very dangerous situation, but with the same careful planning shown during Cyclone Meena earlier this month, the Cooks can be ready.

The models are divergent on which way Nancy will pass through the Cooks and how fast. Some show a more easterly trend and some a more southerly. How each island or atoll fairs will depend on the timing of the forecasted southerly turn. In any case, Palmerston Atoll (approximate population 50) will be the first area to experience hurricane-force winds. On the current forecast track these winds should be at a Category 1/2 level. However, should the southerly turn come in the next few hours, a more direct hit could occur causing winds to be at Category 3/4 levels. However, a quick turn to the south now would lessen the chances of a direct hit on Aitutake, Rarotonga and the other groups to the southeast. Hopefully, Nancy will continue to pick up forward speed and pass quickly out of the area, before Cyclone Olaf heads down more slowly. This would give areas of the Southern Cooks affected by Cyclone Nancy 24-36 hours to recover before Olaf's onslaught.
_____

CYCLONE OLAF
Cyclone Olaf is still located between Tuvalu and Tokelau, about 550 miles (885 kms) northwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa or 460 miles (740 kms) northwest of Asau, Savai'i. Olaf is moving east at 5 kt. Olaf is forecast to continue strengthening and turn southeast. It is now a Category 2 cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and is forecast to be a Category 3/4 in 24-48 hours by the time it is predicted to move near or over Samoa and America Samoa. After Samoa, Olaf is forecast to head toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 4 Cyclone.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Olaf.

SAMOA ALERT FROM SAMOA METEOROLOGY DIVISION

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER FOURTEEN (14) FOR SAMOA ISSUED BY SAMOA METEOROLOGY SERVICES AT 141100Z OR 12:00 A.M. 14th FEBRUARY 2005.

……. A STORM WATCH IS NOW IN FORCE FOR SAMOA FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS…..
…….. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAMOA ………

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF WAS RELOCATED NEAR 9.3 SOUTH 177.7 WEST OR 383 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU AT 140600Z OR 6:30 P.M THIS EVENING. TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND MOVE EAST AT 10 MPH AND EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHEAST. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 95 MPH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

IF OLAF CONTINUES MOVING ON ITS CURRENT TRACK IT WILL LOCATE ABOUT 12.8 SOUTH 173.8WEST OR ABOUT 72 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU AT 151800Z OR 7:AM TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR SAMOA : EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH INCREASING FROM 30 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEAST TOMORROW. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT NORTHWEST SAVAII WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AT TIMES THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING TOMORROW.

At this forecast track and intensity, Olaf would pass very near or over Apia as a Category 3/4 Cyclone on Tuesday morning. All concerns and authorities in Samoa and American Samoa should now be readying preparations consistent with a Category 3/4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Olaf has the potential for more rapid growth and this should also be watched closely. After striking Samoa and American Samoa, Olaf is currently forecast to move toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 4 Cyclone. This area will have already been affected by Cyclone Nancy plus the effects from Cyclone Meena earlier in the month. This is a very dangerous situation for Samoa, American Samoa and the Cooks.

-----
NIUE
Authorities in Niue should monitor the situation closely. Cyclone Olaf is approaching from a direction similar to Cyclone Heta last year which devastated the island. It is currently forecasted to pass well to the northeast of Niue, but a slight shift could bring Niue into target. There is also a small potential for Cyclone Nancy to double back to the southwest and near the island although this is currently not expected. It is likely that watches and warnings will be upgraded for Niue in 24-36 hours.

TOKELAU
Authorities in Tokelau should monitor the situation closely. The forecast path of Olaf brings it fairly far south of the main island groups, but should Olaf's southerly turn come later than forecast, some of the southern groups could be directly affected.

TUVALU, FIJI and WALLIS AND FUTUNA
Authorities in Tuvalu, Fiji and Wallis and Futuna are seeing the cyclones moving away from their island groups, but should be vigilant in case of a significant reversal in direction. Seas will be quite rough in much of this area.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
Depending on how the system cross through the Cook Islands, either could pose a potential threat to the Austral Group and other southern islands of French Polynesia in 48-72 hours.

Good satellite image for both systems together.

Although both storms are still small, there is significant potential for damage over a wide area for islands in their path, if they strengthen significantly over the next 24-48 hours.

Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 knots or 178-209 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large tress blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering of floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required.

Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these tropical systems.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #7, 2005: Dual Cyclones Nancy and Olaf Intensify; Warnings Now Cover 7 Island Nations

Dual Cyclones Nancy and Olaf continue to intensify and have now caused watches and warnings to go up over a wide area of the South Pacific covering 7 countries and stretching from Tuvalu and Wallis and Futuna in the west to Cook Islands in the East as follows:

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR PUKAPUKA, NASSAU AND SUWARROW.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT AND STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

SAMOA:
GALE WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

AMERICAN SAMOA: TUTUILA AND AUNUU:
GALE WARNING, HIGH SURF ADVISORY, AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT
STORM WATCH FOR MONDAY
HURRICANE WATCH FOR TUESDAY

AMERICAN SAMOA:MANU'A:
GALE WARNING, HIGH SURF ADVISORY, AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT
STORM WATCH FOR MONDAY
HURRICANE WATCH FOR TUESDAY

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.
______

CYCLONE NANCY
Cyclone Nancy has strengthened more rapidly over the last 6 hours and is now approaching Category 2 status on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It is moving more rapidly to the eastsoutheast at 10 kt. It currently lies about 50 miles (80 km) southwest of Suwarrow, Northern Cooks and 235 miles (380 km) north of Palmerston Atoll in the Southern Cooks.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Nancy.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number THREE for Southern Cooks ON TC NANCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 14/0556 UTC 2005 UTC.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT AND STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [965hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 163.5W OR ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW OR ABOUT 235 MILES NORTH OF PALMERSTON AT 140500 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE SHORT TERM BUT EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTH. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 100 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 140 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY IS INTENSIFYING. ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 70 MILES NORTHNORTHEAST OF PALMERSTON OR ABOUT 215 MILES WESTNORTHWEST OF AITUTAKI AT 150000 UTC.

FOR PALMERSTON: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS 35 TO 40 KNOTS GUSTING 65 KNOTS DEVELOPING TOMORROW AS THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER. RAIN WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS, BECOMING HEAVY WITH FREQUENT SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. ROUGH SEAS RISING TO VERY ROUGH TOMORROW. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS DEVELOPING.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING 35 KNOTS, GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 45 KNOTS LATER TOMORROW. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OR STRONGER MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT IF THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST. RAIN WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAIN BECOMING HEAVY WITH SCATTERED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW NIGHT. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS DEVELOPING.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 140900UTC OR EARLIER.

All concerns in the Southern Cooks should be now be undertaking Cyclone Preparedness Measures in line for a Category 3 Cyclone. As the Cyclone is picking up speed all preparedness measures should now be rushed to completion on Palmerston and should be completed by early tomorrow in Aitutaki, Rarotonga and the other islands. Special attention should be taken along the coastal zone where much damage has already occurred from Cyclone Meena and seawalls and other protective structures may be damaged or undermined. Authorities in the Cooks should be very much aware that Cyclone Olaf is forecast to be following on the heels of Cyclone Nancy as a larger Category 2/3 storm, and there may be very little time between storms to do any repairs. Thus authorities should in fact be prepared for a quick double hit by both storms in a 24-48 hour period starting late Monday or Tuesday. This is an unusual and increasingly dangerous situation, but with the same careful planning shown during Cyclone Meena earlier this month, the Cooks can be ready.

The models are divergent on which way Nancy will pass through the Cooks and how fast. Some show a more easterly trend and some a more southerly. How each island or atoll fairs will depend on the timing of the forecasted southerly turn. In any case, Palmerston Atoll (approximate population 50) will be the first area to experience hurricane-force winds. On the current forecast track these winds should be at a Category 1 level. However, should the southerly turn come in the next few hours, a more direct hit could occur causing winds to be at Category 2/3 levels. However, a quick turn to the south now would lessen the chances of a direct hit on Aitutake, Rarotonga and the other groups to the southeast. Hopefully, Nancy will continue to pick up forward speed and pass quickly out of the area, before Cyclone Olaf heads down more slowly. This would give areas of the Souhern Cooks affected by Cyclone Nancy 24-36 hours to recover before Olaf's onslaught.

_____

CYCLONE OLAF
Cyclone Olaf continues to be slow moving between Tuvalu and Tokelau is about 550 miles (885 kms) northwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa or 460 miles (740 kms) northwest of Asau, Savai'i. It is forecast to continue strengthening and turn southeast. It is now a Category 1 cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and is forecast to be a Category 2/3 in 24-48 hours by the time it is predicted to move near or over Samoa and America Samoa. After Samoa, Olaf is forecast to head toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 3 Cyclone.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Olaf.

SAMOA ALERT FROM SAMOA METEOROLOGY DIVISION

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER THIRTEEN (13) FOR SAMOA ISSUED BY SAMOA METEOROLOGY SERVICES AT 140500Z OR 6:00 P.M. 13th FEBRUARY 2005.

…..A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAMOA………

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF WAS RELOCATED NEAR 9.3 SOUTH 177.9 WEST OR 400 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU AT 140030Z OR 1:30 P.M THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS AND MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 6 MPH AND EXPECTING TO INCREASE TO 15 MPH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

IF OLAF CONTINUE MOVING ON ITS CURRENT TRACK IT WILL LOCATE ABOUT 10.1 SOUTH 175.6WEST OR ABOUT 270 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU AT 141800Z OR 7:AM TOMORROW MORNING.

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 TO 65 MPH NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 80 MPH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. SUSTAIN WINDS OF ABOVE 40 MPH WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

WINDS OF 40 TO 55 MPH OR STRONGER ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECTS NORTHWEST OF SAVAII WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 36 HOURS, AND THE REST OF SAMOA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. FREQUENT RAIN WITH VERY FALLS AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING TOMORROW

FORECAST TRACK:

IF TC OLAF STAYS ON ITS PROJECTED TRACK IT WILL LOCATE:

ABOUT 67 MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU OR 114 NORTHWEST OF APIA AT 1:00 AM TOMORROW NIGHT.

ABOUT 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF APIA OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF AVAO AT 7:00 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUE AT 12:00 A.M TONIGHT

At this forecast track and intensity, Olaf would pass very near or right over Apia as a Category 3 Cyclone on Tuesday morning. All concerns and authorities in Samoa and American Samoa should now be readying preparations consistent with a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Olaf has the potential for more rapid growth and this should also be watched closely. After striking Samoa and American Samoa, Olaf is currently forecast to move toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 3 Cyclone. This area will have already been affected by Cyclone Nancy plus the effects from Cyclone Meena earlier in the month.

-----

NIUE
Authorities in Niue should monitor the situation closely. Cyclone Olaf is approaching from a direction similar to Cyclone Heta last year which devastated the island. It is currently forecasted to pass well to the northeast of Niue, but a slight shift could bring Niue into target. There is also a small potential for Cyclone Nancy to double back to the southwest and near the island although this is currently not expected. It is likely that watches and warnings will be upgraded for Niue in 24-36 hours.

TOKELAU
Authorities in Tokelau should monitor the situation closely. The forecast path of Olaf brings it fairly far south of the main island groups, but should Olaf's southerly turn come later than forecast, some of the southern groups could be directly affected.

TUVALU, FIJI and WALLIS AND FUTUNA
Authorities in Tuvalu, Fiji and Wallis and Futuna are seeing the cyclones moving away from their island groups, but should be vigilant in case of a significant reversal in direction. Seas will be quite rough in much of this area.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
Depending on how the system cross through the Cook Islands, either could pose a potential threat to the Austral Group and other southern islands of French Polynesia in 48-72 hours.

Good satellite image for both systems together.

Although both storms are still small, there is significant potential for damage over a wide area for islands in their path, if they strengthen significantly over the next 24-48 hours.

Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 knots or 178-209 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large tress blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering of floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these tropical systems.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #6, 2005: Dual Cyclones Nancy and Olaf Intensify; Cooks and Samoa in the Front Line

Dual Cyclones Olaf and Nancy continue to strengthen and pose a threat to a wide area of the Pacific. Watches and warnings have now been raised for the Cook Islands, Samoa, American Samoa. Niue, Tokelau and Tuvalu as follows:

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR PUKAPUKA, NASSAU AND SUWARROW.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW CURRENT FOR ALL SOUTHERN COOKS
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR ALL SOUTHERN COOKS

SAMOA:
GALE WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

AMERICAN SAMOA: TUTUILA AND AUNUU:
HIGH SURF ADVISORY, GALE WATCH AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT

AMERICAN SAMOA:MANU'A:
HIGH SURF ADVISORY, GALE WATCH AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

----

CYCLONE NANCY
Cyclone Nancy has strengthened more rapidly over the last 6 hours and is now approaching Category 1 status on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It is slowly moving to the southeast at 5 kt. It currently lies about 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Suwarrow, Northern Cooks and 160 miles (260 km) southsoutheast of PukaPuka, Northern Cooks and 485 miles (780 km) north of Palmerston Atoll in the Southern Cooks.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Nancy.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ALERT
FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number ONE for Southern Cooks ON TC NANCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 14/0003 UTC 2005 UTC.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [975hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 164.0W OR ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW OR ABOUT 485 MILES NORTH OF PALMERSTON AT 132100 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 60 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 80 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 110 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY IS INTENSIFYING. ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF PALMERSTON OR ABOUT 220 MILES NORTHWEST OF AITUTAKI AT 142100 UTC.

FOR PALMERSTON: EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS, GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS TOMORROW MORNING. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OR STRONGER DEVELOPING LATER TOMORROW AS THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAIN DEVELOPING TOMORROW MORNING, BECOMING HEAVY WITH FREQUENT SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW EVENING. MODERATE SEAS RISING ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH TOMORROW. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS DEVELOPING.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS: EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS, GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS LATER TOMORROW. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OR STRONGER MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW
NIGHT IF THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAIN DEVELOPING LATER TOMORROW, BECOMING HEAVY WITH SCATTERED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW NIGHT.MODERATE SEAS RISING TO ROUGH TOMORROW. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS DEVELOPING.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 140300UTC.

All concerns in the Southern Cooks should be now be undertaking Cyclone Preparedness Measures in line for a Category 2/3 Cyclone. Measures should be completed by early tomorrow morning in Palmerston and early tomorrow afternoon in Aitutaki, Rarotonga and the other islands. Special attention should be taken along the coastal zone where much damage has already occurred from Cyclone Meena and seawalls and other protective structures may be damaged or undermined. Authorities in the Cooks should be very much aware that Cyclone Olaf is forecast to be following on the heels of Cyclone Nancy as a larger Category 2/3 storm, and there may be very little time between storms to do any repairs. Thus authorities should in fact be prepared for a quick double hit by both storms in a 24-48 hour period starting late Monday or Tuesday. This is an unusual and increasingly dangerous situation, but with the same careful planning shown during Cyclone Meena earlier this month, the Cooks can be ready.

----

CYCLONE OLAF
Cyclone Olaf is between Tuvalu and Tokelau is about 550 miles (885 kms) northwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa or 460 miles (740 kms) northwest of Asau, Savai'i. It is slow moving and is forecast to strengthen. It is likewise approaching Category 1 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and could be a Category 2/3 in 24-48 hours by the time it is forecast to move near or over Samoa or America Samoa. After that it is forecast to head toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 2/3 Cyclone.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Olaf.

SAMOA ALERT
FROM SAMOA METEOROLOGY DIVISION

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER TWELVE (12) FOR SAMOA ISSUED BY SAMOA METEOROLOGY SERVICES AT 132300Z OR 12:00 P.M. 13th FEBRUARY 2005.

…..A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SAMOA………

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 08F WAS NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF AND LOCATED NEAR 9.4 SOUTH 178.0 WEST OR 400 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU AT 131800Z OR 7:00 A.M THIS MORNING. TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS AND MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 6 MPH AND EXPECTING TO INCREASE TO 10 MPH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. IF OLAF CONTINUE MOVING ON ITS CURRENT TRACK IT WILL LOCATE ABOUT 10.1 SOUTH 175.6WEST OR ABOUT 270 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU AT 141800Z OR 7:AM TOMORROW MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 TO 55 MPH NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 65 MPH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. SUSTAIN WINDS OF ABOVE 35 MPH WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. ELSEWHERE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH OR STRONGER ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECTS SAMOA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS FREQUENT RAIN WITH VERY FALLS AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING TOMORROW

FORECAST TRACK:

AT 150600Z OR 7:00 PM TOMORROW EVENING ABOUT 11.9 SOUTH 173.7 WEST OR 115 MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU AND 160 MILES NORTHWEST OF APIA.

AT 151800Z OR 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING 13.7 SOUTH 171.7 WEST OR 6 MILES NORTH OF APIA.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUE AT 6:00 P.M

All concerns and authorities in Samoa and American Samoa should now be readying preparations consistent with a Category 2/3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It is still unclear exactly where Olaf will pass but almost all models have it passing somewhere near or over the main islands in Samoa and America Samoa. Olaf has the potential for more rapid growth and this should also be watched closely.
_________

NIUE
Authorities in Niue should monitor the situation closely. Cyclone Olaf is approaching from a direction similar to Cyclone Heta last year which devastated the island. It is currently forecasted to pass well to the northeast of Niue, but a slight shift could bring Niue into target. There is also a small potential for Cyclone Nancy to double back to the southwest and near the island although this is currently not expected. It is likely that watches and warnings will be upgraded for Niue in 24-36 hours.

TOKELAU
Authorities in Tokelau should monitor the situation closely. The forecast path of Olaf brings it underneath the main island groups, but should Olaf's southern turn come later than forecast, some of the southern groups could be directly affected.

TUVALU, FIJI and WALLIS AND FUTUNA
Authorities in Tuvalu, Fiji and Wallis and Futuna are seeing the cyclones moving away from their island groups, but should be vigilant in case of a significant reversal in direction.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
Depending on how the system cross through the Cook Islands, either could pose a potential threat to the Austral Group and other southern islands of French Polynesia in 48-72 hours.

Good satellite image for both systems together.

Although both storms are still small, there is significant potential for damage over a wide area for islands in their path, if they strengthen significantly over the next 24-48 hours.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these tropical systems.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #5, 2005: Dual Cyclones Nancy and Olaf Threaten Wide Area of South Pacific

Overnight Tropical Depression 08F strengthened into Cyclone Olaf. Cyclone Olaf joins Cyclone Nancy in what is now a complex meteorological situation in the South Pacific which threatens a wide area. Current watches and warnings are as follows:

COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR PUKAPUKA, NASSAU AND SUWARROW.

SAMOA:
GALE WATCH FOR ALL AREAS.

AMERICAN SAMOA: TUTUILA AND AUNUU:
HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND GALE WATCH IN EFFECT

AMERICAN SAMOA:MANU'A:
HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND GALE WATCH IN EFFECT

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

CYCLONE NANCY
Cyclone Nancy continues to slowly strengthen and is slowly moving to the southeast at 3 kt. It currently lies about 440 m east of Pago Pago, American Samoa and about 70m west of Suwarrow, Northern Cooks and 150m southsoutheast of PukaPuka, Northern Cooks. It is still at Tropical Storm strength but is forecast to reach Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. in the next 36-48 hours as it approaches the Southern Cooks.

FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10140.txt

PART 1 : WARNING Storm Warning 044 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 13/1929 UTC 2005 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone NANCY centre [985 hPa] was located near 13 decimal 4 South 164 decimal 1 West at 131800 UTC. Position Fair. Repeat position 13.4S 164.1W at 131800 UTC. Cyclone moving towards the southeast at about 03 knots but expected to turn southwards. Expect sustained winds of 50 knots close to the centre increasing to 60 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 30 miles of centre. Expect winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in the sector from north through east to south and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. Forecast position near 14.3S 163.8W at 140600 UTC. and near 15.3S 163.3W at 141800 UTC.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Nancy.

CYCLONE OLAF
CYCLONE OLAF is between Tuvalu and Tokelau about 550 miles northwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa. It is slow moving and is forecast to strengthen somewhat more quickly than Cyclone Nancy. It is still at Tropical Storm strength but is forecast to be Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. in the next 24-48 hours when it is forecast to hit Samoa. After that it id forecast to head toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 2 Cyclone.

FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10140.txt

Tropical Cyclone OLAF centre [990 hPa] was relocated near 9 decimal 4 South 178 decimal 0 West at 131800 UTC. Position Fair. Repeat position 9.4S 178.0W at 131800 UTC. Cyclone currently slow moving but expected to move towards the east then southeast, accelerating gradually. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to centre increasing to 55 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Expect winds above 33 knots within 120 nautical miles of the centre in the northeast semicircle and within 60 nautical miles of centre elsewhere. Forecast position near 9.5S 177.0W at 140600 UTC. and near 10.1S 175.6W at 141800 UTC.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Olaf.

GENERAL ALERT: All Concerns and Authorities in Tuvalu, Fiji, Wallis and Futuna, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Niue, Cook Islands and French Polynesia should monitor these systems carefully. Authorities in Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa and the Southern Cooks should start making preparations in line with the approach of a Category 1-2 Cyclone. Authorities in the Southern Cooks should also be cognizant that due to the recent damage by Cyclone Meena, they are more susceptible to heightened damage even from a smaller system especially in the immediate coastal area.

The presence of 2 cyclones in relatively close proximity to each other makes forecast modelling for either system more difficult. Both storms are approaching the size and proximity whereby the Fujiwhara Effect may come into play. Therefore, very close attention should be paid to both cyclones, and local authorities should be prepared for unexpected shifts in direction of either system.

Good satellite image for both systems together.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these tropical systems.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #4, 2005: Two Tropical Systems cause Warnings and Watches over 5 Countries

Cyclone Nancy (09F) and Tropical Depression 08F are affecting a wide area of the South Pacific, and as a result 5 countries have issued a variety of warnings and watches as noted below:

COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR PUKAPUKA, NASSAU AND SUWARROW.

SAMOA:
GALE WATCH FOR ALL AREAS.

AMERICAN SAMOA: TUTUILA AND AUNUU:
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT, BUT GALE WATCH CANCELLED.

AMERICAN SAMOA:MANU'A:
HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND GALE WATCH IN EFFECT

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

All concerns in Tuvalu, Fiji, Wallis and Futuna, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Niue, Cook Islands and French Polynesia should monitor these systems carefully. The presence of 2 systems in relatively close proximity to each other makes forecasting modelling for either system more difficult. Therefore, close attention should be paid to both, and local authorities should be prepared for unexpected shifts in direction of either system.

Cyclone Nancy is about 100 miles (161 km) west of Suwarrow in the Northern Cooks and is moving southeast at 6 kt. It is forecast to track generally south. On the forecast course, this system would like stay west of the main Cook Islands, but east of American Samoa and Niue. All concerns in Samoa, American Samoa, Cook Islands, Niue and French Polynesia should monitor Cyclone Nancy carefully for any unexpected changes in direction especially given the presence of System 08F to the west.

Depression 08F continues slow moving between Tuvalu and Tokelau. Models are very divergent on the future growth and direction of this system especially given the presence of Cyclone Nancy to the east. All concerns in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji and Samoa should monitor this system closely.

FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/

CYCLONE NANCY

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A9 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 13/0151 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY 09F CENTRE [993hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 165.3W AT 130000 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 06 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9/10 EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

NANCY IS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A SMALL CDO PERSISTING PAST 12 HOURS. MAIN BAND TO EAST STRUGGLING TO WRAP AROUND CDO. DIURNAL EFFECTS AND SHEAR STILL PROMINENT. CONVECTIVE TOPS WARMED SLIGHTLY PAST FEW HOURS. CONVECTION WRAPS ABOUT 0.6 ON LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS. MET=3.5. PT=3.0. NANCY REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONE STILL LIES UNDER WEAK STEERING FIELD. CONSENSUS FORECASTS AN INITIAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TURN BEFORE TREKKING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND FUTURE SOUTHWARD TRACK.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC NEAR 13.5S 166.0W MOV SW 4KT WITH 40KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC NEAR 14.0S 166.0W MOV SW 3KT WITH 45KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC NEAR 14.5S 166.3W MOV SSW 3KT WITH 50KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC NEAR 15.4S 165.9W MOV SSW 3KT WITH 55KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NANCY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 130800 UTC.
______________________

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B5 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 13/0203 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F [1000HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 178.1W AT 130000 UTC. DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9 EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 24 HOURS. STILL DIFFICULT TO LOCATE LLCC UNDER THICK CIRRUS OUTFLOW. CONVECTION INCREASING IN ORGANISATION AND COOLING ABOUT THE CENTRAL AREA. BANDING TO NORTH DEVELOPING AND BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND A DEVELOPING CENTRE. 08F STILL INFLUENCED BY DIURNAL EFFECTS. CONVECTION WRAPS 0.2 ON LOG10 YIELDING A DVORAK OF T1.5/1.5/D0.0/24HRS. SST AROUND 30C. 08F REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. ENVIRONMENT SHEAR IS MINIMAL AND ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE FURTHER. STEERING OVER DEPRESSION IS WESTERLY, AGAINST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE [JMA/UK], FORECASTING A SOUTHWEST TRACK WHLST NOGAPS, SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE DIFFERING OPINIONS ON 08F. ALL THREE MODELS FAVOUR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON 08F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 130830 UTC.
________________________

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these tropical systems.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 09F #3, 2005: Cyclone Nancy Forms

Tropical Depression 09F has been upgraded by the Fiji Meteorological Service to Cyclone Nancy. Nancy is moving east at 5 knots toward the Northern Cooks. It is forecast to continue strengthening but should remain at Tropical Storm strength (less than Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale) for the next 24-48 hours.

Gale Watches and Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for Samoa and American Samoa. A High Surf Advisory is also in effect for Manu'a Waters and for south and southeast facing shores of Tutuila and Anuu Waters in American Samoa.

Tropical Depression 08F remains slowly moving between Tuvalu and Tokelau, and strong wind warnings have been raised for both Tuvalu and Tokelau. It also continues to slowly intensify.

Both the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the Fiji Meteorological Service are currently tracking both systems. Models are somewhat mixed over the trends of these systems given the complex interaction between them.

Concerns in Samoa, American Samoa, Tokelau, Cook Islands, Niue, Tuvalu, Fiji and Wallis and Futuna should monitor the progress of both tropical systems 09F and 08F over the next 24-48 hours. Authorities in the Cook Islands should pay close attention as several main islands have already sustained damage from Cyclone Meena and are thus currently more vulnerable even to a small system.

FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A8 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 12/2017 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY 09F CENTRE [995hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 165.8W AT 121800 UTC MOVING EAST ABOUT 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9/10 EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

A SMALL CDO IS DEVELOPING OVER LLCC. MAIN BAND TO EAST DEVELOPING AND BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND IT. CONVECTIVE TOPS COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION WRAPS 0.6 TO 0.7 ON LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. MET AND PT AGREE AT 3.0. NANCY REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND SOUTH AND DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. CYCLONE CAUGHT UNDER REGION OF WEAK STEERING, HOWEVER, CONSENSUS FORECASTS AN INITIAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TURN BEFORE TREKKING SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND FUTURE SOUTHWARD TRACK.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC NEAR 13.4S 165.8W MOV S 3KT WITH 40KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC NEAR 13.8S 166.5W MOV SSW 3KT WITH 45KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC NEAR 14.5S 166.3W MOV SSW 3KT WITH 50KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC NEAR 15.4S 165.6W MOV S 3KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NANCY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 130200 UTC.

FROM WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE, AMERICAN SAMOA
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/pr/samoa/

NARRATIVE SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND THE INDEPENDENT STATE OF SAMOA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS

2 PM SST FRI FEB 11 2005

SHORT TERM

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F IS LOCATED IN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST VICINITY OF TUTUILA AND MANUA THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF EMBEDDED CLOUDS LINKED TO T.D. 09F, AS WELL AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERY BANDS AND CUMULONIMBUS MOVING ACROSS MANUA WATERS AT 1330 PM LOCAL TIME. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE DOWNPLAYING THE EXPOSURE OF T.D. 09F THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER, AN INCREASE IN WINDS AREEXPECTED TO IMPACT LOCAL CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN ISLANDS BY SUNDAY, WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED EFFECT OVER MANUA AS THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM LIES WITHIN 40 TO 60 MILES EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF MANUA. ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. T.D. 09F WILL GENERATE SWELLS OF 5 TO 7 FEET BY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM

OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... IMPACT OF STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING STORM FROM AN EARLIER PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE DELAYING THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORM UNTIL TUESDAY DUE TO A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA. AS THE STORM INTENSIFY AND EXPAND IN SIZE, A SURFACE RIDGE OBSCURING THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORM WILL DISSIPATE. STORM GENERATED SWELLS OF 8 TO 12 FEET WILL GENERATE SURF OF 16 TO 24 FEET ALONG SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AREA OF ALL ISLANDS.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GALE WATCH AND SCA FOR AMERICAN SAMOA.

&&

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED AT 2 PM SST SATURDAY BY WSO PAGO PAGO OR SOONER IF CONDITION WARRANT.

CMB

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 09F #2, 2005: Gale Watches for Samoa and American Samoa

Tropical Depression 09F continues slow moving about 220 nm (407 km) eastnortheast of Pago Pago, American Samoa. Gale watches and small craft advisories have now been raised for both Samoa and American Samoa. Both the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the Fiji Meteorological Service are currently tracking the system. Models are somewhat mixed over the trend of system 09F given the complex interaction with the competing system 08F which has also formed to the west.

People in Samoa, American Samoa, Tokelau, Cook Islands and Niue should monitor the progress of both tropical systems 09F and 08F over the next 24-48 hours. Authorities in the Cook Islands should pay close attention as several main islands have already sustained damage from Cyclone Meena and are thus currently more vulnerable even to a small system.

FROM SAMOA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.meteorology.gov.ws/forecast.htm

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER FOUR (4) FOR SAMOA ISSUED BY SAMOA METEOROLOGY SERVICES AT 112300.UTC OR 12:00 P.M. FRIDAY 11th FEBRUARY 2005

..... A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SAMOA FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS…

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED 13.5 SOUTH 168.4 WEST OR ABOUT 194 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHEAST OF APIA AT 111800Z OR 7:00 AM THIS MORNING. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST AT 05 MPH AND EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS OR 30 TO 35 MPH CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

FOR SAMOA: Variable winds of 10 to 15 mph and may increase to 30 to 40 mph within the next 24 to 48 hours. Cloudy with isolated showers, becoming frequent tomorrow with isolated thunderstorms. Seas moderate but rough in open waters with high swell of 4 to 6 feet developing.

FROM WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE, AMERICAN SAMOA
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/pr/samoa/

NARRATIVE SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND THE INDEPENDENT STATE OF SAMOA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS

2 PM SST FRI FEB 11 2005

SHORT TERM

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F IS LOCATED IN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST VICINITY OF TUTUILA AND MANUA THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF EMBEDDED CLOUDS LINKED TO T.D. 09F, AS WELL AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERY BANDS AND CUMULONIMBUS MOVING ACROSS MANUA WATERS AT 1330 PM LOCAL TIME. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE DOWNPLAYING THE EXPOSURE OF T.D. 09F THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER, AN INCREASE IN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT LOCAL CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN ISLANDS BY SUNDAY, WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED EFFECT OVER MANUA AS THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM LIES WITHIN 40 TO 60 MILES EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF MANUA. ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. T.D. 09F WILL GENERATE SWELLS OF 5 TO 7 FEET BY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM

OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

IMPACT OF STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING STORM FROM AN EARLIER PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE DELAYING THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORM UNTIL TUESDAY DUE TO A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA. AS THE STORM INTENSIFY AND EXPAND IN SIZE, A SURFACE RIDGE OBSCURING THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORM WILL DISSIPATE. STORM GENERATED SWELLS OF 8 TO 12 FEET WILL GENERATE SURF OF 16 TO 24 FEET ALONG SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AREA OF ALL ISLANDS.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GALE WATCH AND SCA FOR AMERICAN SAMOA.

&&

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED AT 2 PM SST SATURDAY BY WSO PAGO PAGO OR SOONER IF CONDITION WARRANT.

CMB

FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A7 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 12/1349 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE [997hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 166.7W AT 121200 UTC MOVING EAST ABOUT 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS 30 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND WITHIN 50 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

A SMALL CDO HAS APPEARED JUST EAST OF THE LLCC RECENTLY. CONVECTION WRAPS 0.55 ON LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDING T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. DT, MET AND PT AGREE AT 2.5. 09F REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND THIS HAS RETARDED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM SOFAR. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO STEER 09F SOUTHWARDS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE STARTED TO DIFFER IN OPINION ABOUT 09F. BRACKNELL AND NOGAPS FAVOUR INTENSIFICATION OF DEPRESSION 08F LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF 09F. ECMWF, GFS AND GFDL SUPPORT 09F AT THE EXPENSE OF 08F.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON 09F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 122030 UTC.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT 09F #1, 2005: Weather Advisory for American Samoa and Cook Islands

Tropical Depression 09F has formed in the same area in which Cyclone Meena formed earlier in the month, approximately 180 NM eastnortheast of Pago Pago, American Samoa. Both the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the Fiji Meteorological Service are currently tracking the system. No special alerts have yet been issued as the depression is small and well away from any major islands. However, most models indicate a general strengthening trend in the next few days and a slow movement southward.

People in Samoa, American Samoa, Tokelau, Cook Islands and Niue should monitor the progress of the this system over the next 24-48 hours. Authorities in the Cook Islands should pay close attention as several main islands have already sustained damage from Cyclone Meena and are thus currently more vulnerable even to a small system.

FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A5 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 12/0157 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE [997hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 167.3W AT 120000 UTC MOVING EASTWARDS AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

THE LLCC IS SLIPPING UNDER THE CDO. SYSTEM ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH BANDING TO THE EAST, WRAPPING 0.6 ON LOG10 SPIRAL. DVORAK ASSESSMENT DT =3.0, MET=PT=2.5 GIVING T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. 09F REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS WEAKENING AND ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED. OUTFLOW BECOMING GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS ENHANCED BY CROSS-EQUATORIAL WIND FLOW TO THE NORTH AND BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. WESTERLY STEERING EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS 09F INTERACTS WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS.

FORECASTS:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 13.7S 166.9W MOV SE AT 05 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 13.9S 167.1W MOV S AT 03 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 14.3S 167.3W SSW 05 WITH 45 KT CLOSE TOCENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 15.1S 167.1W MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON 09F WILL BE ISSUED AT 120830 UTC.

FOR COOK ISLANDS
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10120.txt

Situation:
A ridge of high pressure pushes from the south directing east to southeast winds over the Southern Cooks .
A tropical depression 09F [1000 hPa] remains slow moving to the far west of Suwarrow in the Northern Cooks. Associated cloud and rain affect the group.

Forecast to midnight tomorrow for the Southern Cooks:
Moderate east to southeast winds.
Fine apart from a few brief showers.
Moderate seas. Moderate to heavy southerly swells.
Further outlook: Brief showers.

For Rarotonga:
Fine apart from a few brief showers.
Further outlook: Brief showers.

For the Northern Cooks:
East to northeast winds, fresh and gusty in squalls. Scattered rain with isolated squally thunderstorms.
Moderate seas, rough in squalls. Moderate swells. Further outlook:Scattered showers south and west of Penrhyn.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT 07F #15, 2005: News from Cook Islands and French Polynesia

Cyclone Meena is now 400 km south of Rapa Island in French Polynesia. Only minor damage has occurred on some of the islands of the Austral Group. Assessments are still underway in the Cooks, but damages are all in line with earlier APCEDI reports. Regular media websites from the Cooks, New Zealand and French Polynesia are continuing to cover the assessment and rehabilitation phase. Some samples below:

TahitiPresse (Agence Tahitienne de Presse): has issued the following news update:

Meena sur la région de Rapa

(Tahitipresse)  -  Meena, qui est désormais une dépression tropicale et non plus un cyclone, se trouvait, mardi matin, à 8 h, à environ 400 km dans le sud de l'île de Rapa, indique Météo-France. Plus au nord dans l'archipel des Australes, les îles de Tubuai et de Raivavae n'ont été que peu affectées par ces mauvaises conditions météorologiques.

Ainsi, selon les premières informations parvenues de Tubuai et Raivavae, seules quelques coupures de courant, une maison endommagée et des chutes d'arbre seraient à signaler sur ces deux îles.
Désormais, la dépression tropicale concerne uniquement l'île de Rapa, à l'extrême sud de la Polynésie française. Pour la journée de mardi, Météo-France prévoit pour cette île des rafales de vent pouvant aller jusqu'à 110 km/h.
Une forte houle, avec des creux de 5 à 7 m, est également atendue sur place.
TM

Tuatua Akakite has issued the following:

Damage caused by Meena. Damage caused by cyclone Meena last weekend include parts of roofs blown off schools and the main church in Aitutaki as well as the downing of trees in breadfruit, banana and coconut plantations. Mangaia's harbor was damaged. Public servants have been given two days off work to help with cleaning up. -February 8 2005

This will be the last APCEDI alert on this system unless otherwise warranted.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT 07F #14, 2005: Cyclone Meena Exits Cook Islands; Post-Storm Update

The eye of Cyclone Meena is about 150 miles ( 241 kms) southeast of Mangaia and the storm in now leaving Cook Island's Territory and entering the far southwest corner of French Polynesian Territory. The storm is moving rapidly southeast at 25 knots and should be well in the southern ocean away from all land areas in the next 8-12 hours perhaps giving a glancing blow to the southern island of Rapa in French Polynesia on the way out.

The Cooks have been largely spared a major disaster by Cyclone Meena having failed to make a direct hit on any island, although there is a lot of debris and fairly widespread moderate to occasionally severe flooding-related damage from tidal surge along the immediate coastal belt of Northeastern Rarotonga and Mangaia and to a lesser degree Aitutake. The coastal area of Avarua was particularly hard hit with several businesses being lost. Other islands in Southern Cooks more to the east of the path of Cyclone Meena such as Atiu, Mauke, Manuae and Takutea are reporting superficial damage with some coastal flooding, but nothing significant at this time.

All assessments from the outer islands will be finalised tomorrow and then the National Disaster Committee will meet to determine a national plan of action for the aftermath.

Situation on Rarotonga: Preliminary Information from the Rarotonga Hurricane Centre. No injuries. No casualties reported. Strong storm surge experienced. The well-known Trader Jacks Restaurant on the wharf at Avarua destroyed and only shell of the building standing. Other nearby businesses were also badly damaged or destroyed. Moderate damage to homes and businesses immediately on or near the shore from the eastern part of Avarua eastward along the northeast coast of the island. Government buildings on the east side of town such as the Ministry of Police and Health have damage from tidal surge. Many residences near the coast also have some storm surge damage. No significant damage to airport. Lots of debris along the coast and coastal roads. However, this was largely cleaned up during the afternoon. Power and phone service is still functional throughout most of the island with only isolated outages reported. Lots of damage to cooking sheds, trees and gardens especially in exposed coastal areas along the eastern coast. Damage considerably less inland away from the coast and the tidal surge. People have now left storm shelters and returned home.

Situation on Aitutake: Preliminary Information from the Aitutaki and Rarotonga Hurricane Centre. No injuries. No casualties reported. Large storm surge. 10 houses and 1 church along the coast with serious roof damage. Some damage to trees, gardens and cooking sheds throughout atoll. Lots of debris along the coast and coastal roads. One large tourist boat has gone missing and it is unclear as to whether it has been washed into the lagoon or out to sea. Otherwise only superficial damage to houses and major buildings. Electricity and phone lines have been maintained except for a few isolated areas. The 4 families in Storm Shelters have gone home.

Situation on Mangaia: Preliminary Information from the Mangaia Hurricane Centre. No injuries. No casualties reported. The storm surge was strong and in many areas came 100-150 metres inland. As the storm intensified in the morning, more families in the main village moved into Storm Shelters so the total by the afternoon was about 230 of the islands roughly 670 inhabitants. In the early evening, after the storm passed, most people returned to their homes, but some have stayed as the road is full of debris in many areas. The airstrip has received considerable damage from the tidal surge, and the Rarotonga Hurricane Centre expects that it will take some days to repair the airstrip. Assessments will be carried out early tomorrow morning

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map.

The best visible satellite photo can be found at the Cook Islands Meteorological Service during daylight hours.

FOR COOK ISLANDS
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10120.txt

Special Weather Bulletin Number THIRTY-ONE for Southern Cooks ON TC MEENA
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 07/0633 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALL ISLANDS IS NOW CANCELLED.

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, AITUTAKI, MANUAE, MITIARO, TAKUTEA, ATIU, MAUKE, MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [940hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0S 156.4W OR ABOUT 255 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA OR ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANGAIA AT 070500 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 25 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 90 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 130 KNOTS, DECREASING TO 75 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA IS WEAKENING. ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA OR ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANGAIA AT 071200 UTC.

FOR FOR RAROTONGA, MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: EXPECT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING 40 KNOTS, GRADUALLY EASING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, MITIARO, TAKUTEA, ATIU, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: EXPECTED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING 40 KNOTS, GRADUALLY EASING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR PALMERSTON: WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS, GRADUALLY EASING. FEW SHOWERS. ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS AND THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE ROUTINE BULLETIN AT 071530UTC.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

SPECIAL THANKS; At this point APCEDI would like to point out the preparedness operations of the Cook Islands Authorities before, during and after this storm were excellent not only in Rarotonga but in the outer islands. All disaster officials spoken to have been very helpful and very knowledgeable about the situation. The people and authorities of the Cook Islands should be very proud about the high degree of readiness and professionalism of their nationwide preparedness operations. This could likely serve as an ideal model for other island nations.

APCEDI would also like to thank the Fiji Meteorological Service. Their reporting through this storm has been outstanding and very timely. The FMS officials which APCEDI have dealt with during the storm have also been most helpful and informative. The improvements made to the Fiji Meteorological Service website have been excellent and will be very helpful in future storms.

APCEDI would also like to specially thank AusAID for funding this AFAP website. Since the start of Cyclone Meena, the site has received over 5,000 hits from the Cook Islands, the Pacific and around the world, and has now been linked by the BBC, USA Today and other major news websites around the globe. As with other AFAP cutting edge technologies like our Dengue Fever Program and Forest Garden Program , we thank AusAID for helping support this pioneering service for the Asia-Pacific Region. More information on AFAP's programs can be found on AFAP's Website.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT 07F #13, 2005: Cyclone Meena Weather Advisory for Australes Group, French Polynesia

With Cyclone Meena now moving south of the Cook Islands, the Southern parts of French Polynesia will feel some strong effects from the storm, although little damage is expected. Care should be taken for very rough seas and some intermittent squalls with heavy rain and gales in the area, however, especially for the southern outpost of Rapa. Meteo France has issued the following advisory for the Southern Australes Group;

From Meteo France via TahitiPresse (Agence Tahitienne de Presse):

AUSTRALES: Un temps pluvieux et instable persistera sur l’archipel durant ces deux jours avec des averses et des grains fréquents. Les précipitations sont localement de forte intensité et accompagnées d’orages. Une nette amélioration se fera sur les îles du nord dans la soirée de mardi. Sur les îles du nord, vent fort de secteur Nord-ouest avec des rafales atteignant 100 à 120km/h.Sur Rapa, Vent de secteur Nord-ouest modéré à assez fort avec des rafales à 80/100Km/Heure sous les grains, se renforçant en devenant fort dans la nuit de lundi à mardi.Mer forte, devant très forte à grosse vers les îles du nord à partir de ce soir puis à Rapa dans la nuit de lundi à mardi, avec des creux de 5 à 7 mètres.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/



posted by APCEDI Team at 4:02 PM

APCEDI ALERT 07F #12, 2005: Cyclone Meena Preliminary Damage Information

The eye of Cyclone Meena is about 60 miles ( 97 kms) southwest of Mangaia. The storm is moving rapidly southeast at 20 knots and should be through the Cook Islands in the next 4-8 hours. APCEDI is now able to bring some general idea of the damage on Rarotonga and Aitutaki. The Cooks have been largely spared a major disaster by Cyclone Meena having failed to make a direct hit on any island, although there is a lot of debris and fairly widespread moderate to occasionally severe flooding-related damage from tidal surge along the immediate coastal belt of Rarotonga and Mangaia and to a lesser degree Aitutake. Other islands in Southern Cooks more to the east of the path of Cyclone Meena such as Atiu, Mauke, Manuae and Takutea are reporting superficial damage with some coastal flooding, but nothing significant at this time.

Situation on Rarotonga: Preliminary Information from the Rarotonga Hurricane Centre. No injuries. No casualties reported. Strong storm surge experienced. The well-known Trader Jacks Restaurant on the wharf at Avarua largely destroyed and only shell of the building standing. Moderate damage to homes and businesses immediately on or near the shore from the eastern part of Avarua eastward along the east coast of the island. Government buildings on the east side such as the Ministry of Police and Health have damage from tidal surge. Many residences near the coast also have storm surge damage. No significant damage to airport. Lots of debris along the coast and coastal roads. Power and phone service is still functional throughout most of the island with only isolated outages reported. Lots of damage to cooking sheds, trees and gardens especially in exposed coastal areas along the eastern coast. Damage considerably less inland away from the coast and the tidal surge. People still in Storm shelters, but will likely leave later this afternoon. Full damage assessments are now underway and will continue tomorrow.

Situation on Aitutake: Preliminary Information from the Aitutaki and Rarotonga Hurricane Centre. No injuries. No casualties reported. Large storm surge. 10 houses along the coast with serious roof damage. Some damage to trees, gardens and cooking sheds throughout atoll. Lots of debris along the coast and coastal roads. One large tourist boat has gone missing and it is unclear as to whether it has been washed into the lagoon or out to sea. Otherwise only superficial damage to houses and major buildings. Electricity and phone lines have been maintained except for a few isolated areas. The 4 families in Storm Shelters have gone home.

Situation on Mangaia: Preliminary Information from the Mangaia Hurricane Centre. No injuries. No casualties reported. As the storm intensified this morning, more families in the main village moved into Storm Shelters so the total is now about 230 of the islands roughly 670 inhabitants. The storm surge has been strong and is reported coming 100-150 metres inland. All assessment and repair teams have been brought to shelter until the storm is over, but before coming in reported that a large empty shed in the main village had collapsed. Assessments will be carried out later today if possible or tomorrow.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map.

The best visible satellite photo can be found at the Cook Islands Meteorological Service during daylight hours.

FOR COOK ISLANDS
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10120.txt

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-EIGHT for Southern Cooks ON TC MEENA
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 06/2124 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, AITUTAKI, MANUAE, MITIARO, TAKUTEA, ATIU, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

THE STRONG WIND WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON IS NOW CANCELLED.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [915hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1S 158.8W OR ABOUT 79 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA OR ABOUT 49 MILES WEST OF MANGAIA AT 062100 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 20 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 115 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 155 KNOTS, DECREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE EXTENDING 200 MILES IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA IS WEAKENING. ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA OR ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA AT 070000 UTC AND 135 MILES
SOUTHSOUTHEAST OF MANGAIA AT 070600 UTC. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL BEGIN A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: EXPECT VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 115 KNOTS OR MORE WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 155 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. PHENOMENAL SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ESTIMATED AT 50 FEET OR 15 METRES.

FOR RAROTONGA, AITUTAKI, MANUAE, MITIARO, TAKUTEA, ATIU, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS GRADUALLY EASING. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS STILL EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ESTIMATED AT 30 FEET OR 9 METRES.

FOR PALMERSTON: FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS, TENDING SOUTHERLY LATER TODAY WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS, GRADUALLY EASING. FEW SHOWERS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 070030UTC OR EARLIER.
NNNN

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT 07F #11, 2005: Category 4 Super-Cyclone Meena Gives a Glancing Hit to Rarotonga

Cyclone Meena seems to have peaked in intensity this morning as a strong Category 4 storm, with the eye about 30 miles (50 kms) east of Rarotonga. Rarotonga now lies in the outer edge of the western eyewall. To have the storm pass to the east and not make a direct hit is certainly a silver lining for the island as it means as the greatest potential for damage is likely to have stayed just offshore to the east. However, moderate to heavy localised damage is still possible. So people should stay on guard, and with such rough seas, coastal areas are still very vulnerable. Given that Meena has picked up forward speed and is now travelling at 20 kts to the southeast, it will not linger and should quickly move away in the 12-24 hours.

Situation on Rarotonga: So far the main reports of damage on Roratonga have been confined to trees and powerlines down and debris from the sea blocking the main coastal road in several places. No injuries or major damage to main buildings or structures have been reported at this time.

Eight evacuation shelters were set up around the island yesterday and many low-lying areas have been evacuated. The Hurricane Centre reports about 148 people currently in shelters.

The Rarotonga Hurricane Centre and Air New Zealand have confirmed that the Air New Zealand flight that was coming yesterday evening had to turn back and about 200 passengers due to leave were not picked up. The Government has moved most of them to one of the Evacuation Shelters, so they are all being well cared for. There was a report this morning from the Australian Broadcasting Corporation quoting a New Zealand Foreign Ministry spokesman stating that the plane was able to land and retrieve passengers, but this is being strongly denied by the Rarotonga Hurricane Centre and Air New Zealand. APCEDI has alerted the ABC to this error and asked for the report to be corrected.

The Centre is reporting intermittent torrential rains with increasing winds up to 60-70 knots.

Situation on Mangaia After the storm hits Rarotonga, it will pass to the west of Mangaia. 3 Shelters have been opened and about 90 people are now being put up through the storm. The island administration has evacuated low lying coastal areas. No damage has been reported but the local Hurricane Centre is reporting heavy rain, strong winds to about 40-50 knots and very rough seas. There are about 650-700 residents on Mangaia.

Situation on Aitutake: Fortunately for the low-lying Aitutake Atoll, the eye of the storm passed 161 kms to the west of the atoll. This means that the atoll did not get the full force of the storm. APCEDI spoke with Sergeant Putu of the Aitutake Hurricane Centre at 9:00 PM AST (Sydney time) yesterday, and he reported winds of 40-50 knots gusting higher with heavy rain. At least 3 trees have fallen across the road, but have been removed by the bulldozer. 4 families have moved into 2 evacuation shelters. Otherwise the island is fairing well. There are about 2000 residents on Aitutake.

Situation on Palmerston: The Palmerston Hurricane Centre continues to report to the Rarotonga Hurricane Centre to report that damage has been limited to some coconut trees and small huts blown down, but otherwise no major damage. There are about 50 residents on Palmerston.

Category 4 Saffir-Simpson Scale..
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map.

The best visible satellite photo can be found at the Cook Islands Meteorological Service during daylight hours.

FOR COOK ISLANDS
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10120.txt

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-SEVEN for Southern Cooks ON TC MEENA
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 06/1813 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, AITUTAKI, MANUAE,
MITIARO, TAKUTEA, ATIU, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [915hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8S 159.2W OR ABOUT 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF RAROTONGA OR ABOUT 95 MILES NORTHWEST OF MANGAIA AT 061730 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 20 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 115 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 155 KNOTS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA IS WEAKENING. ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 58 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA OR ABOUT 55 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANGAIA AT 062100 UTC AND 58 MILES OF MANGAIA AT 070300 UTC. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL BEGIN A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: EXPECT WINDS INCREASING TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 115 KNOTS OR MORE WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 155 KNOTS . FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. PHENOMENAL SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ESTIMATED AT 50 FEET OR 15 METRES.

FOR RAROTONGA, AITUTAKI, MANUAE, MITIARO, TAKUTEA, ATIU, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS GRADUALLY EASING. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS EASING. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS STILL EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ESTIMATED AT 30 FEET OR 9 METRES.

FOR PALMERSTON: STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS, GRADUALLY EASING. SOME SHOWERS. SEAS VERY ROUGH. HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 062130UTC OR EARLIER.
NNNN

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT 07F #10, 2005:Cyclone Meena Strengthening to Category 4 Super-Cyclone; Takes Aim on Rarotonga

Cyclone Meena continues to slowly strengthen and is now passing about 100 miles (161 kms) west of Aitutake (population est. 2000). Updated forecasts are now calling for the storm to pass very near or over Rarotonga as Category 4 Super-Cyclone with the capacity of causing severe damage to the capital late tonight and tomorrow. This is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION for Rarotonga and Mangaia, and all disaster preparedness activities in line with a severe Super-Cyclone must now be rushed to completion on these islands.

Situation on Rarotonga: Unfortunately for the capital island, Cyclone Meena is making a bee-line for it and there is now pretty good agreement in the models from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and the Fiji Meteorological Service that Meena will hit Rarotonga as a strong Category 4 storm. The Government set up the Rarotonga Hurricane Centre this morning to coordinate preparedness activities in the capital and with other islands. The Rarotonga Hurricane Centre will be open all night and will be the focal point of all cyclone activities. Eight evacuation shelters have been set up around the island and many low-lying areas have been evacuated. The evacuation centres have been filling up this afternoon and evening with families fleeing the storm whose centre will likely hit the island around 8:00 AM local time tomorrow (February 6th).

The Rarotonga Hurricane Centre has reported that the Air New Zealand flight that was coming this evening has had to turn around and so about 200 passengers due to leave have been stranded. The Government has moved most of them to one of the Evacuation Shelters, so they are all being well cared for.

According to the Rarotonga Hurricane Centre there are approximately 11,000 residents on Rarotonga plus several hundred tourists. The Centre is reporting intermittent heavy rains with increasing winds up to 20-30 knots.

Situation on Aitutake: Fortunately for the low-lying Aitutake Atoll, the eye of the storm is passing 161 kms to the west of the atoll. While this means that the atoll will not get the full force of the storm, it could still receive winds capable of light to locally moderate damage. APCEDI spoke with Sergeant Putu of the Aitutake Hurricane Centre at 9:00 PM AST (Sydney time), and he reported winds of 40-50 knots gusting higher with heavy rain. At least 3 trees have fallen across the road, but have been removed by the bulldozer. 4 families have moved into 2 evacuation shelters. Otherwise the island is fairing well. Residents should remain inside for the next 12-24 hours as the storm moves away. There are about 2000 residents on Aitutake.

Situation on Palmerston: The Palmerston Hurricane Center continues to report to the Rarotonga Hurricane Center to report that damage has been limited to some coconut trees and small huts blown down, but otherwise no major damage. As the storm will now be moving away, it is likely that they will escape any major damage. There are about 50 residents on Palmerston.

Situation on Mangaia After the storm hits Rarotonga, it will pass to the west of Mangaia. Preparations have been rushed to completion this evening. 3 Shelters have been opened and are filling up this evening. The island administration has evacuated low lying coastal areas. There are about 650-700 residents on Mangaia.

Category 4 Saffir-Simpson Scale..
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map.

The best visible satellite photo can be found at the Cook Islands Meteorological Service during daylight hours.

FOR COOK ISLANDS
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10120.txt

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-THREE for Southern Cooks ON TC MEENA
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 06/0625 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, MANGAIA AND
NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, MITIARO,
TAKUTEA, ATIU, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [920hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 161.6W AT 060600 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST AT AROUND 12 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED TO BE 110 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 150 KNOTS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND IS MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN COOKS. ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 90 MILES WESTSOUTHWEST OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 120 MILES NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA AT 061200UTC AND ABOUT 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA OR ABOUT 130 MILES WESTNORTHWEST OF MANGAIA AT 061800UTC. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL BEGIN A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA: EXPECT WINDS INCREASING TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 110 KNOTS OR MORE WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 150 KNOTS OR MORE FROM LATER TONIGHT ABOUT RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA TOMORROW. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. PHENOMENAL SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED AT 45 FEET OR 14 METRES.

FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, MITIARO, TAKUTEA, ATIU, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: EXPECT DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 70 TO 85 KNOTS FROM LATER TONIGHT. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED AT 35 FEET OR 10 METRES.

FOR PALMERSTON: DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 45 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS VERY ROUGH TO HIGH. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED AT 25 FEET OR 7 METRES.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 060930UTC OR EARLIER.
NNNN

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT 07F #9, 2005:Cyclone Meena Strengthening to Super-Cyclone; Takes Aim on Rarotonga

Cyclone Meena continues to strengthen and is now passing about 90 miles (145 kms) eastnortheast of Palmerston Atoll (population est. 50). It will next approach and pass about 100 miles (161 kms) west of Aitutake (population est. 2000) later tonight. The forecast is then calling for the storm to pass very near or over Rarotonga as Category 4-5 Super-Cyclone with the capacity of causing severe damage to the capital late tonight and tomorrow. This is now a CRITICALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION for Rarotonga and Mangaia, and all disaster preparedness activities in line with a severe Super-Cyclone must now be rushed to completion on these islands.

Situation on Palmerston: The Palmerston Hurricane Center has recently called into the Rarotonga Hurricane Center to alert them that damage has been limited to some coconut trees and small huts blown down, but otherwise no major damage. As the storm will now be moving away, it is likely that they will escape any major damage.

Situation on Aitutake: Fortunately for the low-lying Aitutake Atoll, the eye of the storm is passing well to the west of the atoll. While this means that the atoll will not get the full force of the storm, it could still receive winds capable of light to locally moderate damage. APCEDI spoke with Sergeant Putu of the Aitutake Hurricane Centre at 1:00 PM AST (Sydney time), and he reported that Aitutake was prepared for the storm, that all preparedness activities had been completed and the radio was advising people on the situation as well as which hurricane shelters to go to if required later tonight. All schools, resorts and homes had boarded up and taken relevant precautions. He reports that the mayor's office and police force will be on alert all night and will call for evacuations to area shelters if necessary. The weather conditions were light rain, periodically heavier and light winds to 5 knots. APCEDI will continue to report from Aitutake.

Situation on Rarotonga: Unfortunately for the capital island, Cyclone Meena is making a bee-line for it and is getting stronger in every report both by the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and the Fiji Meteorological Service. The Government set up the Rarotonga Hurricane Centre this morning to coordinate preparedness activities in the capital and with other islands. Some low-lying areas have been evacuated and shelters set up. The Centre will be open all night and will be the focal point of all cyclone activities.

There is some divergence in the models as whether it will hit Rarotonga as a Category 4 or Category 5 Cyclone, but in either case, maximum precautions should be taken to ensure lives and property. It is a case of hope for the best, but expect the worst. Meena has persistently demonstrated episodes of rapid intensification, and conditions are overall favourable for development. This situation has many similarities to last year's situation with Cyclone Heta and Niue. The authorities are well-preparing the island and most preparations have been completed, but some people APCEDI has spoken with at the resorts in Rarotonga are under the impression that this is not a major storm, and authorities should be impressing on the population that it a major storm and that they may receive a direct hit from this very destructive storm. The fact that Palmerston and Aitutake are likely to escape without major damage is only from the good fortune of not receiving a direct hit from Meena. Rarotonga may not be as fortunate as all current models are showing a near- direct or direct hit.

Category 4 Saffir-Simpson Scale..
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

Category 5 Saffir-Simpson Scale..
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 knots or 249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map.

The best visible satellite photo can be found at the Cook Islands Meteorological Service.

FOR COOK ISLANDS
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10120.txt

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-ONE for Southern Cooks ON TC MEENA
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 06/0036 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, MITIARO, TAKUTEA, ATIU, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [925hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 162.2W AT 060000 UTC. CYCLONE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED TO 100 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 145 KNOTS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN COOKS. ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PALMERSTON OR ABOUT 105 MILES WEST OF AITUTAKI AT 060600UTC AND ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 95 MILES NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA OR 200 MILES NORTHWEST OF MANGAIA AT 061200UTC. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL BEGIN A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA: EXPECT WINDS INCREASING TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 100 KNOTS OR MORE WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 145 KNOTS OR MORE FROM LATER TONIGHT. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. PHENOMINAL SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS.

FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, MITIARO, TAKUTEA, ATIU, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS : EXPECT DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 70 TO 85 KNOTS FROM LATER TONIGHT. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS.

FOR PALMERSTON: DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 45 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS VERY ROUGH TO HIGH. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 060330UTC OR EARLIER.
NNNN

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT 07F #8, 2005:Cyclone Meena Strengthening to Super-Cyclone; Threatens Widescale Damage to Southern Cooks

Tropical Cyclone Meena has strengthened dramatically overnight. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is now saying that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 115 knots making it a Category 4 Storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.. The JWTC is now forecasting that the storm will pass over Rarotonga as a Category 5 Super-Cyclone.

The Southern Cook Islands must now be prepared for a Super-Cyclone of at least Category 4 and possibly Category 5. This is a CRITICALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION, and all disaster preparedness activities in line with a severe Super-Cyclone must now be rushed to completion on Aitutaki and Rarotonga and the islands to the south. In areas like Palmerston Atoll where the cyclone is present, these activities should be maintained until the storm has passed. See specific information for each island below. Meena's now well-defined eye is currently about 100 km NE of Palmerston Atoll. Fortunately the storm will pass far enough to the east of Palmerston so that damage will be limited and thus, the warning for Palmerston has been downgraded from a Hurricane Warning to a Gale Warning. Nonetheless residents of Palmerston (population about 50) should maintain preparedness activities until the storm passes in 12-24 hours.

A Hurricane Warning is in force for all the remaining Southern Cook Islands including the capital Rarotonga.

On its current forecast track and rate of strengthening, the Cyclone will will pass just west of Aitutake this afternoon and evening as a strong Category 4 storm. It will then make a beeline for Rarotonga later tonight and tomorrow as a possible Category 5 Super-Cyclone Saffir-Simpson Scale. (see damage regimes outlined below). All interests in the Cook Islands especially the Southern Cooks should continue to monitor local media about the storm and rush preparedness activities in line with a Category 4-5 Super Cyclone to completion. All local disasters authorities in the Southern Cooks should now be undertaking disaster preparedness plans in line with a major Super-Cyclone and rushing them to completion. Again to repeat that this is a CRITICALLY DANGEROUS SIUTATION FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS AND THE CAPITAL RAROTONGA.

Category 4 Saffir-Simpson Scale..
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

Category 5 Saffir-Simpson Scale..
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 knots or 249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required.

Interests in Samoa, American Samoa, Niue and French Polynesia should likewise monitor the storm's progress and path in case of an unexpected shift in its direction.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map.

The best visible satellite photo can be found at the Cook Islands Meteorological Service.

FOR COOK ISLANDS
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10120.txt

issued from RSMC NADI Feb 05/1835 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR ALL ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHERN COOKS EXCEPT PALMERSTON.
A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [950hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 162.3W AT 051700 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED TO 90 KNOTS
WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 125 KNOTS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN COOKS. ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 90 MILES EAST OF PALMERSTON ISLAND AT 060200UTC AND ABOUT 75 MILES WEST OF AITUTAKI AT 060800UTC.

FOR AITUTAKI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS GUSTING 50 KNOTS DURING THE MORNING. WINDS STRENGTHENING FURTHER, POSSIBLY REACHING 65 KNOTS GUSTING 80 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER. RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING FREQUENT AND HEAVY LATER TODAY. SEAS ROUGH RISING HIGH TO VERY HIGH LATER TODAY. HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS LIKELY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

FOR RAROTONGA: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS GUSTING 50 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS STRENGTHENING FURTHER DURING THE EVENING, POSSIBLY REACHING 65 KNOTS GUSTING 80 KNOTS TONIGHT AS THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER. RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING FREQUENT AND HEAVY LATER TODAY. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH TODAY, THEN RISING HIGH TO VERY HIGH TONIGHT. HEAVY SWELL DEVELOPING. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS LIKELY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

FOR MANGAIA, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS, STRENGTHENING TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS GUSTING 50 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS STRENGTHENING FURTHER TONIGHT, POSSIBLY REACHING 65 KNOTS GUSTING 80 KNOTS WINDS EARLY TOMORROW AS THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH TODAY, RISING HIGH TO VERY HIGH TONIGHT. HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE TOMORROW.

FOR PALMERSTON: EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS GUSTING 50 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE ISLAND. WINDS TURNING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY EASING TONIGHT. EXPECT RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS RISING ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH DURING THE DAY. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING. SEA FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER COASTALAREAS LATER TODAY.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 052130UTC OR EARLIER.
=====================================================================
Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE MEENA issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 05/1844 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW IS NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE NORTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [950hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 162.3W AT 051700 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED TO 90 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 125 KNOTS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF SUWARROW AT 051700UTC AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLAND TODAY. ASSOCIATED ACTIVE RAIN BANDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND.

FOR THE NORTHERN COOKS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 45 KNOTS ABOUT SUWARROW, NASSAU AND PUKAPUKA. ELSEWHERE, FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS, STRONG AND GUSTY AT TIMES. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS AND THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE ROUTINE BULLETIN AT 052345UTC.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT 07F #7, 2005:Strengthening Cyclone Meena: Hurricane and Storm Warnings Issued for Southern Cooks

The Fiji Meteorological Service has now raised a Hurricane Warning for Palmerston Atoll, a Storm Warning for Aitutaki and nearby smaller Islands and a Storm Warning for Rarotonga. All disaster preparations on Palmerston Atoll should be rushed to completion. Palmerston Atoll has a population of about 50 persons. All disaster preparations should now be put in place in Aitutake and rushed to completion. Aitutake has a population of about 2,000 persons. Persons in Rarotonga should work throughout the morning hours to rush disaster preparations to completion by midday. Rarotonga has approximately 10,000 people on the island.

Tropical Cyclone Meena continues to strengthen and is now a borderline Category 1-2 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It will likely become a strong Category 2 Storm tomorrow at its forecast rate of strengthening. It continues moving southeast at 10 knots. It is forecast to continue slowly strengthening as it heads toward the Southern Cook Islands. Meena is currently about 120 miles south of the Northern Cook Island of Suwarrow. If any persons are currently on Suwarrow, they should maintain preparedness actions in line for a Category-1 Cyclone for the next 12-24 hours. The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a Gale Warning for Suwarrow Island and a Strong Wind Warning for the rest of the Northern Cook Islands as outlined below.

On its current forecast track and rate of strengthening, the intensifying storm will pass just east of Palmerston Atoll this morning and tomorrow as a strong Category 2 storm. It will then pass by Aitutaki and Rarotonga later today and tomorrow as a major Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. This is now a very dangerous situation for Palmerston Atoll, Aitutaki and Rarotonga and other the Southern Cook Islands. All interests in the Cook Islands especially the Southern Cooks should continue to monitor local media about the storm and rush preparedness activities in line with a Category 3 Cyclone to completion. All local disasters authorities in the Southern Cooks should now be undertaking disaster preparedness plans in line with a major cyclone and rushing them to completion.

Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale indicates the following damage regime: Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 knots or 178-209 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large tress blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering of floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required.

Interests in Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Niue and French Polynesia should likewise monitor the storm's progress and path in case of an unexpected shift in its direction.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map.

FOR SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10120.txt

Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVENTEEN for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 05/1243 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS.

A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [960hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 162.9W AT 051200 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED TO 80 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KNOTS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN COOKS. ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 80 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
PALMERSTON ISLAND AT 060000UTC AND ABOUT 90 MILES WEST OF AITUTAKI AT 060600UTC.

FOR PALMERSTON: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS, GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS GUSTING 50 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND POSSIBLY REACHING 65 KNOTS GUSTING 80 KNOTS LATER TODAY AS THE CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS, BECOMING HEAVY AND FREQUENT. SEAS VERY ROUGH, RISING HIGH TO VERY HIGH LATER TODAY. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING. SEA FLOODING LIKELY OVER COASTAL AREAS LATER TODAY.

FOR AITUTAKI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS GUSTING 50 KNOTS DURING THE MORNING. WINDS TURNING NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHENING FURTHER, POSSIBLY REACHING 40 TO 50 KNOTS GUSTING 60 KNOTS THIS EVENING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING FREQUENT AND HEAVY LATER TODAY. SEAS ROUGH RISING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH LATER TODAY. HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS LIKELY TONIGHT.

FOR RAROTONGA:EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS GUSTING 50 KNOTS THIS EVENING. WINDS STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND POSSIBLY REACHING 40 TO 50 KNOTS GUSTING 60 KNOTS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS STRENGTHENING FURTHER LATER TOMORROW AS THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER. CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING FREQUENT FROM TONIGHT. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH, RISING TO HIGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. HEAVY SWELL DEVELOPING. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS LIKELY LATER TOMORROW.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS, STRENGTHENING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS STRENGTHENING FURTHER DURING TOMORROW AS THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, RAIN WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH AND HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 060330UTC OR EARLIER.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT 07F #6, 2005:Strengthening Cyclone Meena Poses Serious Danger to Southern Cook Islands

Tropical Cyclone Meena continues to strengthen and is now a strong Category 1 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It will likely become a Category 2 Storm tomorrow at its forecast rate of strengthening. It has picked up some forward speed and is now moving southeast at 10 knots. It is forecast to continue slowly strengthening as it heads toward the Southern Cook Islands. Meena is currently about 120 miles south of the Northern Cook Island of Suwarrow. Suwarrow is a small atoll renown for its birdlife with a transient population of less than 10 persons. If any persons are currently on Suwarrow, they should maintain preparedness actions in line for a Category-1 Cyclone for the next 12-24 hours.

The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a Gale Warning for Suwarrow Island and a Strong Wind Warning for the rest of the Northern Cook Islands as outlined below. Advisories are continued for the Southern Cooks. On its current forecast track and rate of strengthening, the intensifying storm could pass near or over Palmerston Atoll, Rarotonga and other major islands of the Southern Cooks in 24-48 hours time as a major Category 3 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. This is now a very dangerous situation for Rarotonga, Palmerston Atoll and other the Southern Cook Islands. All interests in the Cook Islands especially the Southern Cooks should monitor local media about the storm and initiate preparedness activities immediately in line with a Category 3 Cyclone. All local disasters authorities should now be undertaking disaster preparedness plans in line with a major cyclone.

Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale indicates the following damage regime: Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 knots or 178-209 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large tress blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering of floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required.

Interests in Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Niue and French Polynesia should likewise monitor the storm's progress and path in case of an unexpected shift in its direction.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map.

FOR COOK ISLANDS
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10120.txt

Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVENTEEN for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 05/0932 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [960hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 163.4W AT 050800 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED TO 75 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 95 KNOTS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. THE CYCLONE CENTRE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF SUWARROW AT 050600UTC AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLAND TOMORROW. ASSOCIATED ACTIVE RAIN BANDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND.

FOR SUWARROW: NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS, GRADUALLY EASING TOMORROW. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 45 KNOTS ABOUT NASSAU AND PUKAPUKA. ELSEWHERE, FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS, STRONG AND GUSTY AT TIMES. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 051230UTC OR EARLIER.


FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A12 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 05/0809 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [960hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 163.7W AT 050600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE EXTENDING 200 MILES IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

MEENA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS. CDO TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL AND BANDS WRAP TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. AN EYE APPEARS TO BE FORMING IN RECENT IR IMAGES. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE WITH SOME NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED IN THE NORTHEAST SECTOR BY STRONG CROSS EQUATORIAL WIND FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE YIELDS DT=5.0, MET=4.5, PT=FT=4.5, CI=4.5: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS. EXPECT SYSTEM RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO DECREASE AS MEENA ACCELERATES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, ALLOWING RAPID INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH AN ACCELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 051800 UTC 17.0S 162.9W MOV SE AT 08 KT WITH 80 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 060600 UTC 19.1S 161.8W MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 85 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC 21.6S 160.6W MOV SSE AT 15 KT WITH 90 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 24.0S 159.3W MOV SSE AT 18 KT WITH 95 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON MEENA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 051430 UTC.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT 07F #5, 2005:Strengthening Cyclone Meena Poses Serious Danger to Southern Cook Islands

Tropical Cyclone Meena continues to strengthen and is now a fully fledged Category 1 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It has picked up some forward speed and is now moving eastsoutheast at 8 knots. It is forecast to continue slowly strengthening and turn southeast toward the Southern Cook Islands. Meena is currently about 120 mile southwest of the Northern Cook Island of Suwarrow. Suwarrow is a small atoll renown for its birdlife with a transient population of less than 10 persons. If any persons are currently on Suwarrow, they should take immediate preparedness actions in line for a Category-1 Cyclone.

The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a Gale Warning for Suwarrow Island and a Strong Wind Warning for the rest of the Northern Cook Islands as outlined below. Advisories are continued for the Southern Cooks. On its current forecast track and rate of strengthening, the intensifying storm could pass near or over Palmerston Atoll, Rarotonga and other major islands of the Southern Cooks in 2 days time as a major Category 3 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. This is now a very dangerous situation for Rarotonga, Palmerston Atoll and other the Southern Cook Islands. All interests in the Cook Islands especially the Southern Cooks should monitor local media about the storm and initiate preparedness activities immediately in line with a Category 3 Cyclone. All local disasters authorities should now be undertaking disaster preparedness plans in line with a major cyclone.

Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale indicates the following damage regime: Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 knots or 178-209 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large tress blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering of floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required.

Interests in Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Niue and French Polynesia should likewise monitor the storm's progress and path in case of an unexpected shift in its direction.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map.

FOR COOK ISLANDS
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10120.txt

Special Weather Bulletin Number THIRTEEN for Northern Cooks ON
TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 04/2051 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW. A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [965hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 165.0W AT 041500 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 8 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 85 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE EXTENDING 200 MILES IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA IS INTENSIFYING. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW AT 050000UTC AND 130 MILES SOUTHSOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW AT 051200UTC. ASSOCIATED ACTIVE RAIN BANDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND.

FOR SUWARROW: NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 45 KNOTS ABOUT NASSAU AND PUKAPUKA. ELSEWHERE, FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS, STRONG AND GUSTY AT TIMES. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 050000UTC OR EARLIER.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT 07F #4, 2005: Tropical Cyclone Meena Bears Down on Cook Islands

Tropical Cyclone Meena continues to strengthen and is close to being a minimal Category 1 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It continues to drift slowly east. It is forecast to continue strengthening and turn southeast toward the Southern Cook Islands. The current track of the storm will bring it southwest of the Northern Cook Island of Suwarrow overnight. Suwarrow is a small atoll renown for its birdlife with a transient population of less than 10 persons. If any persons are currently on Suwarrow, they should take immediate preparedness actions in line for a Category-1 Cyclone.

The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a Gale Warning for Suwarrow Island and a Strong Wind Warning for the rest of the Northern Cook Islands. Advisories are continued for the Southern Cooks as outlined below. On its current forecast track, the intensifying storm could pass near or over Rarotonga or other major islands of the Southern Cooks in 2-3 days time. With the storm strengthening, this is an increasingly dangerous situation for Rarotonga and the Southern Cooks. All interests in the Cook Islands especially the Southern Cooks should monitor local media about the storm and be ready to initiate preparedness activities in line with a borderline Category 1-2 Cyclone. All local disasters authorities should be on standby ready to initiate disaster preparedness plans as soon as called upon by Government officials.

Interests in Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Niue and French Polynesia should likewise monitor the storm's progress and path in case of an unexpected shift in its direction.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map.

FOR COOK ISLANDS
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10120.txt

Special Weather Bulletin Number NINE for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 04/0838 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW. A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [975hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 166.9W AT 040600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 VIS AND IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST LATER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 70 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE AND WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE EXTENDING 200 MILES IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA IS INTENSIFYING. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED 200 MILES TO THE WESTSOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW TONIGHT AND 180 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW EARLY TOMORROW. ASSOCIATED ACTIVE RAIN BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND.

FOR SUWARROW: NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS. SEA FLOODING LIKELY OF COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS: EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 45 KNOTS ABOUT NASSAU AND PUKAPUKA. ELSEWHERE, FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS, BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY AT TIMES EARLY TOMORROW. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 041200UTC OR EARLIER.


APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT 07F #3, 2005: Tropical Cyclone Meena Bears Down on Cook Islands

Tropical Cyclone Meena again increased strength quickly today and is now approaching a Category 1 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It is slowly drifting east. It is forecast to slowly strengthen and turn southeast toward the Southern Cook Islands. The current track of the storm will bring it just southwest of the Northern Cook Island of Suwarrow overnight. Suwarrow is a small atoll renown for its birdlife with a transient population of less than 10 persons. If any persons are currently on Suwarrow, they should take immediate preparedness actions in line for a Category-1 Cyclone.

The Fiji Meteorological Service has now raised a Gale Warning for Suwarrow Islands and a Strong Wind Warning for the rest of the Northern Cook Islands. Advisories are continued for the Southern Cooks as outlined below. On its current forecast track, the quickly intensifying storm could pass near or over Roratonga or other major islands of the Southern Cooks. With the storm strengthening quickly, this is an increasingly dangerous situation for Roratonga and the Southern Cooks. All interests in the Cook Islands especially the Southern Cooks should monitor local media about the storm and be ready to initiate preparedness activities in line with a Category 1-2 Cyclone. All local disasters authorities should be on standby ready to initiate disaster preparedness plans as soon as called upon by Government officials.

Interests in Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Niue and French Polynesia should likewise monitor the storm's progress and path in case of an unexpected shift in its direction.

FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A6 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 04/0159 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [980hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 167.5W AT 040000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST LATER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS, WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN EXPOSED LLCC JUST EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION BUT IN THE LAST 6 HOURS THE CENTRE HAS SLIPPED UNDER THE CDO, IMPLYING A DECREASE IN ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. THE CDO IS REJUVENATING AND CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING AGAIN AFTER A MORNING MINIMUM, SUGGESTING DIURNAL INFLUENCES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED CVA ABOUT MEENA IS LIKELY TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM REMAINS EAST OF AN UPPER [250 HPA] OUTFLOW IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY STRONG CROSS EQUATORIAL WIND FLOW AND REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON IRREGULAR CDO PATTERN GIVES DT=3.0, MET=3.5 AND PT=3.5. FINAL T BASED ON MET: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SLOW EASTSOUTHEAST MOVEMENT FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST FROM TOMORROW.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 041200 UTC 15.3S 165.9W MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 050000 UTC 16.7S 164.4W MOV SE AT 08 KT WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 051200 UTC 18.0S 163.3W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 70 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 060000 UTC 19.9S 162.2W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 80 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE


FOR COOK ISLANDS
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10120.txt

Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 04/0217 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN
COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [980hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 167.5W AT 040000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST LATER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS, WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA IS INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW TONIGHT AND ASSOCIATED ACTIVE RAIN BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND.

FOR SUWARROW: NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS, REACHING 30 TO 35 KNOTS GUSTING 50 KNOTS TONIGHT. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS. SEA FLOODING LIKELY OF COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS: EXPECT 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 45 KNOTS ABOUT NASSAU AND PUKAPUKA. ELSEWHERE, FRESH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS, BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY AT TIMES TONIGHT. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 040600UTC OR EARLIER.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT 07F #2, 2005: Tropical Cyclone Meena Threatens Cook Islands

Tropical Cyclone Meena continued to strengthen overnight and this morning but at a much slower rate. It is slowly drifting east. It is forecast to slowly strengthen and turn southeast toward the Southern Cook Islands. The current track of the storm will bring it very close to the Northern Cook Island of Suwarrow. This is a small atoll renown for its birdlife with a transient population of less than 10 persons. If any persons are currently on Suwarrow, they should take immediate preparedness actions in line for a level-1 Cyclone. The Fiji Meteorological Service continues to maintain a Tropical Cyclone Alert for the Northern Cooks and an advisory for the Southern Cooks as outlined below. All interests in the Cook Islands should continue monitor this storm closely and make all necessary preparations as it approaches. Interests in Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Niue and French Polynesia should likewise monitor the storm's progress and path in case of an unexpected shift in its direction.

FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A5 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 03/2019 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [985hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 167.3W AT 031800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST LATER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE.

AREAL COVERAGE OF COLD TOPS HAS DIMINSHED AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS MEENA HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT IN THE LAST SIX HOURS, ALTHOUGH THIS COULD BE A RESULT OF DIURNAL CHANGES. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE MET A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHEAR AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT MEENA AND THE INCREASED CVA IS LIKELY TO SUSTAIN OR EVEN INCREASE THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM REMAINS EAST OF AN UPPER [250 HPA] OUTFLOW IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY STRONG CROSS EQUATORIAL WIND FLOW AND REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK ANALYSIS GIVES DT=3.0, MET=3.0 AND PT=3.5. FINAL T BASED ON PT: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST LATER.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 040600 UTC 15.1S 166.4W MOV SE AT 05 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 041800 UTC 16.3S 165.1W MOV SE AT 05 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 050600 UTC 17.5S 164.1W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 70 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 051800 UTC 19.0S 163.2W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 80 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON MEENA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 040230 UTC.


FOR COOK ISLANDS
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10120.txt

Special Weather Bulletin Number FIVE for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE MEENA issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 03/2025 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE NORTHERN COOKS

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [985hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 167.3W AT 031800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST LATER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA IS INTENSIFYING. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY EAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN COOKS LATER TODAY.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE COULD BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER SUWARROW IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

SUWARROW: NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS LATER TODAY. FREQUENT RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS, BECOMING VERY ROUGH LATER TODAY. HEAVY SWELLS. SEA FLOODING LIKLEY OF COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS, FRESH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS, BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY LATER TODAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH. MODERATE SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 040230UTC.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT 07F #1, 2005: Tropical Cyclone Meena Forms East of Samoa, Cyclone Alert for Cook Islands

Tropical Depression 07F formed yesterday and has rapidly strengthened into Tropical Cyclone Meena today about 300-350 kms East of Pago Pago in American Samoa. It is currently slow moving. It is likely to continue to strengthen and gradually move southeast toward the Southern Cooks. The Fiji Meteorological Service has raised a Tropical Cyclone Alert for the Northern Cooks and an advisory for the Southern Cooks as outlined below. All interests in the Cook Islands should now monitor this storm closely and make all necessary preparations as it has a history of rapid intensification and may continue to do so. Interests in Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Niue and French Polynesia should likewise monitor the storm's progress and path.

FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 03/0832 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [995hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 168.2W AT 030600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE SLOW MOVING AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE EASTSOUTHEAST LATER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND THE CENTRE HAS SLIPPED UNDER THE CDO. MEENA IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF UPPER [250 HPA] OUTFLOW IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG CROSS EQUATORIAL WIND FLOW. OUTFLOW HAS BECOME GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENT SHEAR REMAINS MINIMAL. DVORAK ANALYSIS AT T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST LATER.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 031800 UTC 15.0S 167.0W MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 040600 UTC 15.5S 165.5W MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 041800 UTC 16.5S 164.7W MOV SE AT 07 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 050600 UTC 18.0S 163.2W MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS DEPRESSION WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 031430 UTC.

FOR COOK ISLANDS
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10120.txt

Special Weather Bulletin Number THREE for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 03/0840 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE NORTHERN COOKS

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [995hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 168.2W AT 030600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE SLOW MOVING AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE EASTSOUTHEAST LATER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA IS INTENSIFYING. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SLOW MOVING BUT IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN COOKS LATER TOMORROW.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE DEPRESSION MAY BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER PUKAPUKA, NASSAU AND SUWARROW IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR PUKAPUKA, NASSAU AND SUWARROW: NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS TOMORROW. RAIN BECOMING MORE FREQUENT AND HEAVY WITH SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS, BECOMING VERY ROUGH TOMORROW. HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING.

FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS, FRESH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS, BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY TOMORROW. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH. MODERATE SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Northern Cook Islands will be issued at 031200UTC or earlier.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT 06F #3, 2005: Tropical Cyclone Lola (06F) grazes Tonga before heading out to sea.

The Fiji Meteorological Service relocated and upgraded Tropical Depression 06F overnight to Tropical Cyclone Lola. Strong Wind Warnings remain in place for Central and Southern Tonga. All warnings for Fiji and Northern Tonga have now been discontinued. Tropical Storm Lola now lies 230 km to the southsouthwest of Nukualofa. Overnight the storm brought squalls and isolated heavy rains to the Ha'apai, Nomuka and Tongatapu Groups, but no significant damage has been reported although minor damage to crops, gardens and weak structures may have occurred in localised areas. The storm is now passing quickly to the southeast and should not be a threat to populated areas.


FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA 5N TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 180 AND EQ TO 25S BETWEEN 180 AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Jan 312000 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNING Gale Warning 051 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 31/2014 UTC 2005 UTC.*POSITION RELOCATED AND FORECAST CORRECTION*
Tropical Cyclone LOLA centre [990 hPa] was located near 22 decimal 7 South 176 decimal 5 West at 311800 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 22.7S 176.5W at 311800 UTC.
Cyclone moving southeast at about 10 knots and expected to turn south-southeast later.
Expect sustained winds of 40 knots close to centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 80 miles of centre in sectors from north through east to south and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere.
Forecast position near 24.5S 175.9W at 010600 UTC. and near 26.3S 175.3W at 011800 UTC.
Ships within 300 miles of centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC Nadi. For Nadi: VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 050.

PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Feb 011800 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE LOLA [990HPA] NEAR 22.7S 176.5W AT 311800 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LATER. APART FROM GALE WARNING 050 EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE. VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS. POOR VISIBILITY IN SQUALLY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.


TONGA
Weather Bulletin issued from NWFC Nadi Feb 01/0003 UTC 2005 UTC.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TONGA.

Situation:
Tropical Cyclone Lola was located near 23.2S 175.9W at 312100UTC or about 125 miles [ 230 km] to the southsouthwest of Nukualofa. The cyclone is moving southeast at about 10 knots away from Tonga. Associated convergence zone, strong winds and rain affect much of the kingdom.

Forecast to midnight tomorrow for Tonga:
Moderate to fresh northwest winds about Northern Tonga. Elsewhere, west to northwest winds, strong and gusty at times, easing and tending south to southwest tonight. Periods of rain, heavy at times with isolated squally thunderstorms, easing about Central and Southern Tonga tonight. Further outlook: Rain continuing about Northern Tonga. Elsewhere,
few showers.

For Nuku'alofa: Periods of rain and one or two squally thunderstorms, easing tonight.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/