APCEDI Alert SP/CS Cyclone Jim #7-2006: Cyclone Jim Moving Away from Loyalty Islands (Iles Loyauté), New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie)

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and Meteo France continue to issue guidance on Cyclone Jim.

Meteo France has downgraded its alert for the Loyalty Islands (les Iles Loyauté) to Alerte Level 1 and maintains a "Pré-alerte" for the rest of New Caledonia as it moves away from the territory. Meteo France continues to issue a "Bulletin Météorologique Spécial Public" and a "Bulletin Météorologique Spécial Marine" for New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie). The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre retains a Special Advisory for Vanuatu.

Cyclone Jim is currently 300 km east of Noumea or 150 km southeast of Maré in the Loyalty Islands (les Iles Loyauté) and is moving to the east-southeast at 40 km/hr. Cyclone Jim, is currently at Tropical Storm strength and is likely to remain at this strength as it passes into the Southern Ocean.

Heavy rains and gales are still being experienced across Maré, the southern most of the Loyalty Islands (les Iles Loyauté) and the Ile des Pins off the southern coast of Grande Terre, but should these be moving out of the area shortly. Widespread minor damage has been reported from across the Loyalty Islands (les Iles Loyauté) and parts of Grande Terre. This includes trees down, localised power outages and some minor coastal flooding. Loyalty Islands (les Iles Loyauté). Extensive, up-to-date news on Cyclone Jim from New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) can be found on the website of main daily newspaper, Les Nouvelles Calédoniennes.

After impacting New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie), Cyclone Jim is forecast to pass to the south of Vanuatu before passing into the Southern Ocean. On the forecast trajectory, the southern islands of Vanuatu will escape being hit but will nonetheless experience very high seas with damaging waves, causing problems for shipping and resulting in localised coastal flooding and erosion. Latest forecasts are now showing Cyclone Jim stalling south of Vanuatu and New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) so both countries should maintain on-going monitoring even after the storm has passed. Should the storm stall both New Caledonia and Vanuatu should expect very rough seas for several days.

The Solomons port of Guadalcanal was closed to shipping earlier yesterday as the result of strong winds and rough seas. SIDT, the AFAP Partner Office in Honiara, is reporting the grounding of one of the larger Inter-Island Ferries and that several of the larger Solgreen fishing boats, that had been impounded at the wharf for non-payment of tax and NPF, were smashed up by the rough seas. The port is still restricted due to the damage and continued high seas. Small craft are likely to remain ordered to shore on the Solomon Islands of Rennell and Bellona as seas are still quite high in these southernmost of the Solomon Islands.

All interests in Grande Terre and les Iles Loyauté of New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) should still continue to closely monitor the situation through the local news media and follow the advice of the Government as the cyclone passes out of the area.

All interests in Vanuatu should continue to monitor this storm closely as well. While the storm is now far from the Solomon Islands, interests there should still expect very rough seas in Southern parts of the country.

From the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre

REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 167.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM NORTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 10P IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. GUIDANCE SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING HAS CHANGED, MOVING AWAY FROM AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM OVER AUSTRALIA BUILDING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A FASTER THAN EXPECTED FILLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RELAXATION OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW STEERING THE STORM, AND SHOULD SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. UKMET, NOGAPS, AND GFDN ALL SHOW STRONG ENOUGH RIDGING BUILDING IN TO TURN THE STORM BACK EQUATORWARD. COMPARISON OF MODEL FIELDS WITH SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS A FAIR MODEL ANALYSIS IN THESE DYNAMIC AIDS. HOWEVER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW PAST 24 DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHERAIDS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO MIXED. HOWEVER, LESS THAN FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND NON IDEAL SST SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM FROM INTENSIFYING, ESPECIALLY ONCE THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z AND 010300Z.//
______________________

From Meteo France

Le Haut-Commissariat de la République communique :
Message émis le : mardi 31 janvier à 19h00 (heure locale de Nouméa)

DEBUT DU MESSAGE

Avis d'alerte cyclonique

Rédige le mardi 31/01/06 à 18h00 locales à 17h00 locales le mardi 31/01/06, la dépression tropicale forte "JIM" était
centrée par 21,5 sud 169,0 est. (soit 100 km à l’est de Mare) Pression au centre estimée à 975 hpa. La dépression tropicale forte "JIM" se déplace direction est-sud-est à 40 km/h. Les vents moyens sont estimés à 110 km/h (rafales à 165 km/h) dans un rayon de 35 km autour du centre, mer très grosse. Les vents supérieurs à 85 km/h (rafales à 130 km/h) s'étendent dans un rayon entre 35 et 55 km du centre, mer très grosse. Les vents supérieurs à 60 km/h (rafales à 90 km/h) s'étendent dans un rayon entre 55 et 110 km du centre, mer grosse.

Complément d’information :
Jim a perdu un peu de son intensité cet après midi. Elle s’évacue rapidement vers le sud-est .Les conditions vont s ‘améliorer sur les Loyautés dés maintenant.

DECISION:
Alerte 1 sur les Loyauté à partir 18h00.
Maintien de la pré alerte pour le reste du territoire.
L'alerte 1 sur les Loyauté pourrait être levée mercredi 1er février à 6h00.

Sauf aggravation notable, un prochain point sera effectué le 01 février 2006 à 05H30 heures locales.

FIN DU MESSAGE
Les informations météorologiques les plus récentes sont consultables dans la rubriques "Cyclones" du site www.meteo.nc
______________________

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Special Advisory Number FOUR for Vanuatu on TC JIM issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 31/0834 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone JIM [955hPa] centre was located near 21.9 South 168.9 East at 310600 UTC. Position poor based on MTSAT IR imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving southeast at about 25 knots and expected to decelerate in the next 12 to 18 hours to 15 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 80 knots, decreasing to 70 knots in the next 6 hours. Expect winds over 63 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre, over 47 knots within 60 nautical miles of the centre and over 33 knots within 120 nautical miles of the centre.

System is rapidly moving southeast under a deep northwest steering flow. The 250hPa baroclinic low near Norfolk Island is filling up and as a mid level subtropical ridge builds up near 30S it is expected to slow Jim and even possibly curve the cyclone northwest as a weakened system. However, GFS and NOGAPS differ from this scenario and continue moving the cyclone southeast. On its current forecast track, JIM is expected to lie about 180 miles to the south of Aneityum by 311200 UTC and is expected to continue moving further away from Vanuatu. Damaging gale force winds are no longer expected to affect Aneityum, Tanna, Erromango, Aniwa and Futuna. However, expect strong and gusty northwest winds to continue
affecting Vanuatu. Damaging heavy swells still expected with sea flooding likely over western and northwestern coastal areas.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 311800 UTC near 24.2S 171.0E mov SE at 15kt with 70kt close to the centre
24hrs valid at 010600 UTC near 25.9S 172.6E mov SE at 12kt with 55kt close to the centre

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 011800 UTC near 27.2S 173.0E mov SSE at 10kt with 40kt close to the centre
48hrs valid at 020600 UTC near 27.4S 173.0E mov SSW at 05kt with 35kt close to the centre

This will be the final Special Advisory for Vanuatu on JIM unless the situatuion changes.

VANUATU: PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS MESSAGE.
______________________

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/CS Cyclone Jim #6-2006: Cyclone Jim Descends on Loyalty Islands (Iles Loyauté), New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie)

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and Meteo France continue to issue guidance on Cyclone Jim.

Meteo France has issued a Level 2 Alert for the Loyalty Islands (les Iles Loyauté) and continues a "Préalerte" for Grande Terre and Ile des Pins as well as for Vanuatu. Meteo Francelikewise continues to issue a "Bulletin Météorologique Spécial Public" and a "Bulletin Météorologique Spécial Marine" for New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie). The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre has now issued a Special Advisory for Vanuatu.

Cyclone Jim is currently just 50 km northeast of the Island of Ouvéa in the Loyalty Islands (les Iles Loyauté) and is moving to the east-southeast at 35 km/hr. Cyclone Jim, is currently at a Category 1 on the Saffir Simpson Scale and is likely to remain at this strength as it passes north of Grande Terre and the Loyalty Islands (les Iles Loyauté).

Cyclone Jim is forecast to pass 50 kms north of the Loyalty Islands (les Iles Loyauté) of Lifou and Maré as a strong Category 1 storm. Very heavy rains and gales are now being experienced throughout much of New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) and the Loyalty Islands (les Iles Loyauté) except for Maré which is still outside the area of central dense overcast. Winds are being sustained at strong tropical storm strength and reaching gusts of hurricane force Category 1 across the much of the Ouvea, Lifou and Tiga. Conditions will likewise deteriorate on Maré in the next few hours. This will result in much damage to trees, gardens and other vegetation and localised coastal flooding of low lying areas in the Loyalty Islands (les Iles Loyauté). However, as Cyclone Jim is small and is moving very fast, severe conditions should not last long and should improve quickly as the storm passes. On the positive side, the storm will bring much needed rain to New Caledonia which has been plagued by drought and bushfires during the last several months. Extensive, up-to-date news on Cyclone Jim from New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) can be found on the website of main daily newspaper, Les Nouvelles Calédoniennes.

After impacting New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie), Cyclone Jim is forecast to pass to the south of Vanuatu before passing into the Southern Ocean. On the forecast trajectory, the southern islands of Vanuatu will escape being hit but will nonetheless experience very high seas with damaging waves, causing problems for shipping and resulting in localised coastal flooding and erosion. Latest forecasts are now showing Cyclone Jim stalling south of Vanuatu and New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) so both countries should maintain on-going monitoring even after the storm has passed. Should the storm stall both New Caledonia and Vanuatu should expect very rough seas for several days.

The Solomons port of Guadalcanal was closed to shipping earlier yesterday as the result of strong winds and rough seas. SIDT, the AFAP Partner Office in Honiara, is reporting the grounding of one of the larger Inter-Island Ferries and that several of the larger Solgreen fishing boats, that had been impounded at the wharf for non-payment of tax and NPF, were smashed up by the rough seas. The port is still restricted due to the damage and continued high seas. Small craft are likely to remain ordered to shore on the Solomon Islands of Rennell and Bellona as seas are still quite high in these southernmost of the Solomon Islands.

All interests in Grande Terre and les Iles Loyauté of New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) should closely monitor the situation through the local news media and follow the advice of the Government as the cyclone passes by in the next 24 hours.

All interests in Vanuatu should continue to monitor this storm closely as it pass New Caledonia. While the storm is moving away from the Solomon Islands, interests there should still expect very rough seas in Southern parts of the country.

From the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre

REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 167.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM NORTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 10P IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. GUIDANCE SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING HAS CHANGED, MOVING AWAY FROM AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM OVER AUSTRALIA BUILDING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A FASTER THAN EXPECTED FILLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RELAXATION OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW STEERING THE STORM, AND SHOULD SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. UKMET, NOGAPS, AND GFDN ALL SHOW STRONG ENOUGH RIDGING BUILDING IN TO TURN THE STORM BACK EQUATORWARD. COMPARISON OF MODEL FIELDS WITH SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS A FAIR MODEL ANALYSIS IN THESE DYNAMIC AIDS. HOWEVER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW PAST 24 DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHERAIDS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO MIXED. HOWEVER, LESS THAN FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND NON IDEAL SST SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM FROM INTENSIFYING, ESPECIALLY ONCE THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z AND 010300Z.//
______________________

From Meteo France

WHNC05 NWBB 310209
BULLETIN METEOROLOGIQUE SPECIAL PUBLIC NUMERO 004.
REDIGE LE 31/01/06 A 13H00 LOCALES.
AVIS DE CYCLONE.
A 11H00 LOCALES LE 31/01/06, CYCLONE TROPICAL "JIM" :
- CENTRE PAR 19,9 SUD 167,0 EST, SOIT A ENVIRON 146 MILLES NAUTIQUES
(270 KM) DANS LE NORD-NORD-EST (13°) DE NOUMEA.
- PRESSION AU CENTRE ESTIMEE A 970 HPA.
- DEPLACEMENT EST-SUD-EST 18 NOEUDS (35 KM/H).
VENTS MOYENS ESTIMES A 130 KM/H (RAFALES A 195 KM/H) DANS UN RAYON DE
35 KM AUTOUR DU CENTRE.
VENTS SUPERIEURS A 115 KM/H (RAFALES A 175 KM/H) DANS UN RAYON DE 35
KM AUTOUR DU CENTRE.
VENTS SUPERIEURS A 85 KM/H (RAFALES A 130 KM/H) DANS UN RAYON ENTRE
35 ET 75 KM DU CENTRE.
VENTS SUPERIEURS A 60 KM/H (RAFALES A 90 KM/H) DANS UN RAYON ENTRE 75
ET 185 KM DU CENTRE.
TEXTE DU BMS : LE CYCLONE TROPICAL "JIM" SE TROUVAIT A 11H CE MATIN ENTRE 50 ET 100 KM DANS LE NORD NORD-EST D'OUVEA. IL POURSUIVRA AUJOURD'HUI UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD-EST QUI LE FERA PASSER EN FIN D'APRES-MIDI A ENVIRON 100 KM DANS LE NORD DE MARE. EN CONSEQUENCE, DE FORTES PLUIES SONT ATTENDUES SUR LES LOYAUTE AVEC DES RAFALES QUI POURRONT ATTEINDRE 100 KM/H SUR LIFOU ET MARE CET APRES-MIDI. CETTE NUIT, "JIM" S'ELOIGNERA DU TERRITOIRE ET LES VENTS FAIBLIRONT SUR LES LOYAUTE. PROCHAIN BULLETIN SPECIAL PUBLIC LE 31/01/06 A 19H LOCALES.=
______________________

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Special Advisory Number THREE for Vanuatu on TC JIM issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 31/0300 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone JIM [960hPa] centre was located near 21.0 South 167.6 East at 310200 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT VIS imagery with animation and peripheral surface report. Cyclone moving southeast at about 20 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 75 knots, decreasing to 65 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 60 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of the centre.

System now appears to become sheared as continues it drifting southeast. CDO now begining to become detached from LLCC. Cyclone lies in northwest steering flow, north and a large baroclinic low near Norfolk island. Outflow restricted in SE quadrant. CIMMS indicates Jim is moving into an increased sheared environment to the south. On its current forecast track, JIM is expected to pass about 140 miles to the southwest of Aneityum around 310600 UTC. Expect very strong to near gale force winds about Aneityum, Tanna, Erromango, Tanna, Aniwa and Futuna. Winds easing by midnight tonight. Damaging
heavy swells expected with sea flooding of western and northwestern coastal areas.

FORECASTS :
12hrs valid at 311200 UTC near 22.8S 168.9E mov SE at 15kt with 65kt
close to the centre
24hrs valid at 010000 UTC near 25.0S 171.0E mov SE at 15kt with 50kt
close to the centre

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 011200 UTC near 26.3S 172.2E mov SE at 14kt with 40kt
close to the centre
48hrs valid at 020000 UTC near 27.3S 172.1E mov SSW at 05kt with 35kt
close to the centre

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON JIM WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
310800 UTC.
______________________

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/CS Cyclone Jim #5-2006: Cyclone Jim hits New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie)

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and Meteo France continue to issue guidance on Cyclone Jim.

Mateo France continues to issue a "Bulletin Météorologique Spécial Public" and a "Bulletin Météorologique Spécial Marine" for New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) and continues a "Préalerte" for Vanuatu. The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre has now issued a Special Advisory for Vanuatu.

Cyclone Jim has passed just to the north of the Ile Surprise and is currently 260 km north of Koumac, on the Northern part of the main island of Grand Terre. Cyclone Jim is moving to the east-southeast at 35 km/hr. Cyclone Jim, is currently at Category 1 Strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale and is likely to remain at this strength as it passes Grande Terre and the Loyalty Islands.

Cyclone Jim is forecast to pass just to the north of Grande Terre and to make direct or near direct hits on the Loyalty Islands (les Iles Loyauté) of New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) as a medium to strong Category 1 storm. Very heavy rains have recently moved into the Northern section of Grande Terre and should cover much of the country in the next few hours. This will likely result in flooding of some low-lying coastal areas, localised flash flooding and some more widespread crop and tree damage, but damage to structures should be limited on Grande Terre. However damage to the Loyalty Islands (les Iles Loyauté) could be more severe if a direct hit occurs on any of them. On the positive side, the storm will bring much needed rain to New Caledonia which has been plagued by drought and bushfires during the last several months. After impacting New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie), Cyclone Jim is forecast to pass to the south of Vanuatu before passing into the Southern Ocean south of Tonga.

The Solomons port of Guadalcanal that was closed to shipping earlier yesterday as the result of strong winds and rough seas will likely be reopened today as the Cyclone moves away. Small craft are likely to remain ordered to shore on the Solomon Islands of Rennell and Bellona as seas are still quite high in these southernmost of the Solomon Islands.

All interests in Grande Terre and les Iles Loyauté of New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) should closely monitor the situation through the local news media and follow the advice of the Government as the cyclone passes by in the next 24 hours.

All interests in Vanuatu should continue to monitor this storm closely as it pass New Caledonia. While the storm is moving away from the Solomon Islands, interests there should still expect very rough seas in Southern parts of the country.

From the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre

REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 164.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH-WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS IMPROVED CONVECTION AND A RELATIVELY SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS BECOMING ELONGATED, MOST LIKELY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
AND A REGION OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TC 10P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT IS STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL LOW POLEWARD OF NEW CALEDONIA. BY TAU 48 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE LOW FILLS AND MERGES WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE INTENSITY OF TC 10P WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z AND 311500Z.//
______________________

From Meteo France

WHNC05 NWBB 301431
BULLETIN METEOROLOGIQUE SPECIAL PUBLIC NUMERO 002.
REDIGE LE 31/01/06 A 01H10 LOCALES.
AVIS DE CYCLONE.
A 23H00 LOCALES LE 30/01/06, CYCLONE TROPICAL "JIM" :
- CENTRE PAR 18,2 SUD 163,6 EST, SOIT A ENVIRON 550 KM DANS LE
NORD-NORD-OUEST DE NOUMEA.
- PRESSION AU CENTRE ESTIMEE A 965 HPA.
- DEPLACEMENT EST-SUD-EST 19 NOEUDS (35 KM/H).
VENTS MOYENS ESTIMES A 140 KM/H (RAFALES A 205 KM/H) DANS UN RAYON DE 35 KM AUTOUR DU CENTRE.

TEXTE DU BMS : JIM S'EST ENCORE CREUSE ET A QUELQUE PEU ACCELERE. IL SE TROUVAIT A 23 H A 260 KM AU NORD DE KOUMAC. SA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT LE FAIRE PASSER TOUT PRES AU NORD DES LOYAUTE DANS LA JOURNEE DE MARDI. IL FAUT S'ATTENDRE MARDI MATIN A DES RAFALES DE 130 KM/H SUR LES BELEP, 90 KM/H SUR LE NORD DE LA GRANDE TERRE, ET EN MI-JOURNEE 150 KM/H SUR LES LOYAUTE.

PROCHAIN BULLETIN SPECIAL PUBLIC LE 31/01/06 A 08H LOCALES.=
______________________

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Special Advisory Number ONE for Vanuatu on TC JIM issued from RSMC
NADI
Jan 30/2032 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone JIM [955hPa] centre was located near 18.6 South 165.3 East at 301800 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT EIR imagery with animation and peripheral surface report. Cyclone moving eastsoutheast at about 15 knots and expected to curve southeast in the next 12 hours. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 80 knots, winds over 47 knots within 60 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of the centre.

LLCC still difficult to locate and remains embedded within surrounding white shade. Cyclone lies in a diffluent region, under a northwest steering flow, north and a large baroclinic low near Norfolk island. Interaction with the New Caledonia landmass and cooler SSTs south of New Caledonia are anticipated to restrict further development. Global models generally agree on a southeast track with graduall weakening. On its current forecast track, JIM is expected to pass about 80 miles to the southwest of Aneityum and Tanna around 310600 UTC. Expect gale force winds by 310300 UTC or earlier about Aneityum, Tanna, Erromango, Tanna, Aniwa and Futuna. Damaging heavy swells expected with sea flooding of western and northwestern coastal areas.

FORECASTS :
12hrs valid at 310600 UTC near 20.6S 168.4E mov SE at 15kt with 80kt close to the centre
24hrs valid at 311800 UTC near 22.6S 170.8E mov SE at 15kt with 70kt close to the centre

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 010600 UTC near 24.2S 172.5E mov SE at 12kt with 70kt close to the centre
48hrs valid at 011800 UTC near 25.0S 173.3E mov SE at 10kt with 65kt close to the centre

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON JIM WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
310200 UTC.

VANUATU: PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS MESSAGE.
______________________

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/CS Cyclone Jim #4-2006: Cyclone Jim bears down on New Caledonia

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and Meteo France are issuing guidance on Cyclone Jim.

Mateo France has issued a "Bulletin Météorologique Spécial Public" and a "Bulletin Météorologique Spécial Marine for New Caledonia" and continues a "Préalerte" for Vanuatu.

Cyclone Jim is currently 750 km northwest of Noumea, the New Caledonian capital and is moving to the east-southeast at 30 km/hr. Cyclone Jim, is currently at Category 1 Strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale and is likely to remain at this strength as it approaches, Ile Surprise, Grande Terre and the Loyalty Islands.

Cyclone Jim is forecast to continue tracking east-southeastward to the south of the Solomon Islands toward Grande Terre the main island of New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie). The Solomons port of Guadalcanal has been closed to shipping earlier today as the result of strong winds and rough seas, and all small craft have been ordered to shore on the Solomon Islands of Rennell and Bellona.

Current forecasts have Cyclone Jim passing just to the north of Grande Terre and making near direct hits on Ile Surprise and the Loyalty Islands (les Iles Loyauté) of New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) as a weak Category 1 storm. After impacting New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie), Cyclone Jim is forecast to pass to the south of Vanuatu before passing into the Southern Ocean south of Tonga.

All interests in Grande Terre and les Iles Loyauté of New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) should closely monitor the situation through the local news media and follow the advice of the Government as the cyclone passes by in the next 24 hours.

All interests in Vanuatu, the Solomon Islands and Tonga should continue to monitor this storm closely as it pass New Caledonia.

From the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre

REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 161.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM NORTH-WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM IS RAPIDLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE SHARED INFLUENCE OF AN EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND A SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA. A 292111Z SSMIS PASS DEPICTS A NORTHWEST- TO SOUTHEAST-ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST POLEWARD OF TC 09C. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 18 FEET. THIS IS THE LAST SIX HOUR WARNING INTERVAL FOR TC 10P. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE TC 10P WARNINGS EVERY 12 HOURS HEREAFTER. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND 310300Z.//
______________________

From Meteo France

WHNC05 NWBB 300741
BULLETIN METEOROLOGIQUE SPECIAL PUBLIC NUMERO 001.
REDIGE LE 30/01/06 A 18H20 LOCALES.
AVIS DE CYCLONE.
A 17H00 LOCALES LE 30/01/06, CYCLONE TROPICAL "JIM" :
- CENTRE PAR 17,3 SUD 161,9 EST, SOIT A ENVIRON 404 MILLES NAUTIQUES
(750 KM) DANS LE NORD-OUEST (318°) DE NOUMEA.
- PRESSION AU CENTRE ESTIMEE A 970 HPA.
- DEPLACEMENT EST-SUD-EST 16 NOEUDS (30 KM/H).
VENTS MOYENS ESTIMES A 120 KM/H (RAFALES A 180 KM/H) DANS UN RAYON DE
35 KM AUTOUR DU CENTRE.
VENTS SUPERIEURS A 115 KM/H (RAFALES A 175 KM/H) DANS UN RAYON DE 45
KM AUTOUR DU CENTRE.
VENTS SUPERIEURS A 85 KM/H (RAFALES A 130 KM/H) DANS UN RAYON ENTRE
45 ET 95 KM DU CENTRE.
VENTS SUPERIEURS A 60 KM/H (RAFALES A 90 KM/H) DANS UN RAYON ENTRE 95
ET 240 KM DU CENTRE.
TEXTE DU BMS : LES VENTS VONT SE RENFORCER AU COURS DE LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI SUR LES BELEP ET LE NORD DE LA GRANDE TERRE. EN FIN DE NUIT, ILS ATTEINDRONT SUR LES BELEP 85 A 90 KM/H AVEC DES RAFALES PROCHES DE 120 A 130 KM/H. SUR LA GRANDE TERRE, AU NORD D'UNE LIGNE KONE/POINDIMIE, LES VENTS ATTEINDRONT 60 KM/H AVEC DES RAFALES PROCHES DE 90 KM/H. UNE ATTENUATION PROGRESSIVE EST ATTENDUE AU COURS DE LA MATINEE DE MARDI.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN SPECIAL PUBLIC LE 31/01/06 A 02H LOCALES.=
______________________

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/CS Cyclone Jim #3-2006: Cyclone Jim closes in on New Caledonia and Vanuatu

The Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre of the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and Mateo France are issuing guidance on Cyclone Jim.

Mateo France continues a "Préalerte" for New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) and Vanuatu.

Cyclone Jim is currently 870 km northwest of Noumea, the New Caledonian capital and is moving to the southeast at 35 km/hr. Cyclone Jim, which is currently at Category 1 Strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale and is likely to remain at this strength as it approaches, Ile Surprise, Grande Terre and the Loyalty Islands.

Cyclone Jim is forecast to continue tracking eastward to the south of Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands in the direction of Vanuatu and New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie). The Solomons port of Guadalcanal has been closed to shipping as the result of strong winds and rough seas, and all small craft have been ordered to shore on the Solomon Islands of Rennell and Bellona.

Current forecasts have Cyclone Jim passing to the north of Grande Terre and making near direct hits on Ile Surprise and the Loyalty Islands (les Iles Loyauté) of New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) as a weak Category 1 storm. It is likely that full cyclone alerts will be raised today for much of New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) After swiping New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie), Cyclone Jim is forecast to pass to the south of Vanuatu before passing into the Southern Ocean.

All interests in Vanuatu, New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie), Solomon Islands and Milne Bay Province of PNG should monitor this storm closely as it tracks further eastward into the Coral Sea.

From the Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre of the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

IDQ20065
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 1000 EST on Monday the 30th of January 2006

At 10am EST Monday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Jim, Category 3 with central pressure 970 hPa, was located near 16.9S 160.4E, about 1140 km northeast of Fraser Island and 870km northwest of Noumea, the capital of New Caledonia. Jim has been moving to the east southeast at 35 km/hr. The cyclone is expected to begin to move towards the east southeast towards New Caledonia.

No further bulletins will be issued from the Queensland Region Warning Centre as the cyclone has moved out of the warning area.
______________________

From Mateo France

Prévisions météorologiques sur la Nouvelle-Calédonie établies par Météo-France à Nouméa le lundi 30 janvier à 11H20 locales, valables pour cet après-midi et la nuit prochaine:
CORRECTIF du précédent bulletin PUBLIC : Le cyclone "JIM" est actuellement située à environ 600 km au nord-ouest des Belep. Selon le scénario le plus probable, elle se trouvera en milieu de journée de demain à 200 km au nord de Koumac, et incurvera sa trajectoire vers le sud-est pour passer à l'est immédiat des Loyauté durant la nuit de mardi à mercredi.
-Cet après-midi: le temps sera partout couvert. Des pluies continues vont gagner le nord du Territoire. Plus au sud les pluies seront plus éparses ou sous forme d'averses.
-La nuit prochaine, le temps couvert et pluvieux se généralisera. Les pluies deviendront fortes et localement orageuses sur le nord de la Grande Terre.

Aperçu pour mardi: Les pluies se maintiendront sur l'ensemble du Territoire. Ces pluies pourront être soutenues en particulier sur le relief, la côte est et les Loyauté. Les vents les plus forts concerneront le nord de la Grande terre le matin. Sur les Belep, il atteindra 45 noeuds avec des rafales à 70 noeuds. Sur le nord de la Grande Terre, le vent atteindra 30 à 35 noeuds avec des rafales à 50 noeuds. L'après-midi, sur les Belep, la côte est et les Loyauté, le vent sera proche de 35 noeuds avec des rafales à 50 noeuds. En soirée, le vent se renforcera sur Ouvéa avec des rafales à 70 noeuds.
Tendance pour mercredi et jeudi: JIM s'éloignera vers le sud-est.
Mais le temps restera pluvieux au moins mercredi, notamment sur Nouméa et l'ouest. La côte est, le nord et les Loyauté seront privilégiées, avec de belles périodes de soleil. Le vent sera de secteur sud, 20 noeuds environ.
Les températures maximales de la journée seront en nette baisse: 25 à 29 degrés.
Les températures minimales de la nuit prochaine iront de 22 à 25 degrés.
Prévisions de vents moyens sur les lagons: Aujourd'hui : Le vent d'est à sud-est sera compris entre 10 à 15 noeuds, localement 20 noeuds sur le sud.
Voici les vents observés à 11 heures locales:
Nouméa: EST-SUD-EST 12 NOEUDS
Phare Amédée: EST-SUD-EST 18 NOEUDS
Koumac: SUD-SUD-EST 14 NOEUDS
Touho: CALME
Lifou: EST-SUD-EST 12 NOEUDS.
Températures relevées à la même heure sous abri:
Nouméa:27.8
La Tontouta:30.2
Koumac:28.7
Poindimié:29.2
Lifou:25.7
Le prochain bulletin public sera enregistré vers 17H00 locales.=

Conditions d'utilisation

Préalerte

La préalerte est en fait une mise en garde qui est déclenchée lorsqu'une dépression tropicale est signalée dans notre zone d'avertissement météorologique.
Les consignes cycloniques sont alors rappelées par l'ensemble des médias. Ecoutez-les attentivement.

La préalerte est en fait une mise en garde qui est déclenchée lorsqu'une dépression tropicale est signalée dans notre zone d'avertissement météorologique.
Les consignes cycloniques sont alors rappelées par l'ensemble des médias. Ecoutez-les attentivement.
______________________

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/CS Cyclone Jim #2-2006: Cyclone Jim heads towards New Caledonia and Vanuatu

The BrisbaneTropical Cyclone Warning Centre of the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and Mateo France are issuing guidance on Cyclone Jim.

Mateo France has issued a "Préalerte" for New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) and Vanuatu.

Cyclone Jim formed yesterday in the Coral Sea and is currently 850 km east of Innisfail, and is moving to the east at 20 km/hr. Cyclone Jim, which is currently at Tropical Storm Strength is expected to strengthen to Category 1 Strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale later today or early tonight.

Cyclone Jim is currently not an immediate threat to any South Pacific Island States or Territories, but it is forecast to continue tracking eastward to the south of Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands in the direction of Vanuatu and New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie). All interests in Vanuatu, New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie), Solomon Islands and Milne Bay Province of PNG should monitor this storm closely as it tracks further eastward into the Coral Sea.

From the BrisbaneTropical Cyclone Warning Centre of the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

IDQ20065
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 11AM EST on Sunday the 29th of January 2006

At 11 am EST Sunday, Tropical Cyclone Jim, Category 2 with central pressure 982 hPa, was located near 16.7S 154.4E, about 850 km east of Innisfail, and was moving to the east at 20km/hr. The cyclone is expected to continue to move to the east and then east southeast towards New Caledonia.

Tropical Cyclone Jim poses no threat to the Queensland coast.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 5PM EST on Sunday 29 January.
______________________

From Mateo France

Préalerte

La préalerte est en fait une mise en garde qui est déclenchée lorsqu'une dépression tropicale est signalée dans notre zone d'avertissement météorologique.
Les consignes cycloniques sont alors rappelées par l'ensemble des médias. Ecoutez-les attentivement.

La préalerte est en fait une mise en garde qui est déclenchée lorsqu'une dépression tropicale est signalée dans notre zone d'avertissement météorologique.
Les consignes cycloniques sont alors rappelées par l'ensemble des médias. Ecoutez-les attentivement.
______________________

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/CS Cyclone Jim #1-2006: Cyclone Jim forms in Coral Sea East of Northern Queensland

The BrisbaneTropical Cyclone Warning Centre of the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on newly formed Cyclone Jim. Cyclone Jim formed in the Coral Sea earlier today and is currently 540 km east of Innisfail, and is moving to the east at 25 km/hr. Cyclone Jim, which is currently at Tropical Storm Strength is expected to continue to move to the east for at least the next 24 to 48 hours.

Cyclone Jim is currently not an immediate threat to any South Pacific Island States or Territories, but it is forecast to continue tracking eastward to the south of Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands in the direction of Vanuatu and New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie). All interests in Vanuatu, New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie), Solomon Islands and Milne Bay Province of PNG should monitor this storm closely as it tracks further eastward into the Coral Sea.

From the BrisbaneTropical Cyclone Warning Centre of the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

IDQ20065
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 5pm EST on Saturday the 28th of January 2006

At 5pm EST, Tropical Cyclone Jim, Category 1 with central pressure 985 hPa, was located near 17.3S 151.1E, 540 km east of Innisfail, and is moving to the east at 25 km/hr. The cyclone is expected to continue to move to the east for at least the next 24 to 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jim poses no threat to the coast of Queensland.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 11 pm EST on Saturday 28 January.
______________________


APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/SM Cyclone Urmil (06F) #4-2006: Cyclone Urmil Moving into the Southern Ocean after passing between Tongatapu and Niue

RSMC-Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on newly formed Cyclone Urmil (formally Tropical Depression 06F).

Cyclone Urmil is now quickly moving southeast into the Southern Ocean at 20 kt (37 km/hr) after passing between Tongatapu and Niue last night. Because it passed roughly equidistantly between the two islands at over 200 km from either one, no significant damage occurred to either island. This will be the last APCEDI report on Urmil unless the situation changes or any significant damage reports are received.

However, the Convergence Zone remains very active with a current burst of convective energy north of Fiji near the Southern Tuvalu Atolls, so all island states in the Central Southwest Pacific (Tuvalu, Fiji, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Tonga, Niue and the Cook Islands) should continue to monitor the situation closely in the coming days.

With Cyclone Urmil passing out to sea and the very active Convergence Zone and all the recent tropical storm activity, there are still a number of advisories, alerts and warnings in effect. The following is a list of advisories, alerts and warnings currently in effect.

CURRENT ADVISORIES, ALERTS AND WARNINGS

TONGA
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP IS NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP, HA'APAI GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

NIUE
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR NIUE IS NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

SAMOA
FLOOD ADVISORY
STRONG WIND ADVISORY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT

TUVALU - STRONG WIND WARNING

SOUTHWEST MARINE - GALE WARNING
_________________

FROM RSMC-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B5 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 14/2008 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone URMIL 06F [980hPa] centre was located near 22.3S 171.9W at 141800 UTC. Position fair based on HR MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation. Cyclone moving southeast at 20 knots and expected to accelerate further at least in the next 12 hours before slowing. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 55 knots close to the centre decreasing to 45 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 20 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre.

Urmil has weakened past 6 hours. Deep convective tops about centre have warmed considerably and decreased spatially. Overall organisation decreased. Embedded centre yields a T4 with MG shade. VIS curved band yields a strong T3.5 with a 1.0 wrap. Thus Dvorak analysis yields T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24hrs. Urmil remains under divergent 250-hPa region but is moving into significant shear. Outflow fair to south and east. Urmil is being steered southeast by deep northwest winds.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 150600 UTC near 26.4S 170.3W mov SE at 20kt with 50 kt close to the centre.
24hrs valid at 151800 UTC near 28.0S 169.6W mov SE at 15kt with 45 kt close to the centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 160600 UTC near 28.8S 168.7W mov SE at 12kt with 40kt close to the centre.
48hrs valid at 161800 UTC near 29.5S 167.6W mov SE at 10kt with 30kt close to the centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone URMIL will be issued around 150200 UTC.
______________________

Special Weather Bulletin Number EIGHT for Tonga on TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL issued
from RSMC NADI
Jan 14/1547 UTC 2006 UTC.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP IS NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP, HA'APAI GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL [975 HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9 SOUTH 172.4 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES EASTSOUTHEAST OF HA'APAI GROUP AND 160 MILES EAST OF FUA'AMOUTU AT 141500 UTC. REPEAT POSITION 20.9S 172.4W AT 141500 UTC. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST AT 22 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 60 KNOTS, WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF CENTRE AND WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HA'APAI GROUP AND 170 MILES EAST OF FUA'AMOTU AT 141800 UTC OR 200 MILES EASTSOUTHEAST OF FUA'AMOTU AT 142100 UTC.

FOR NORTHERN TONGA:
SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS. CLOUDY PERIODS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ABOUT THE NIUAS. ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF TONGA:
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS EASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY. CLOUDY PERIODS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, ABATING LATER TODAY. HEAVY SWELLS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA ON TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL AND THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE ROUTINE BULLETIN AT 142345 UTC. TONGA MET PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.
______________________

Special Weather Bulletin Number FOUR for Niue ON TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 14/1434 UTC 2006 UTC.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR NIUE IS NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL [975 HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6 SOUTH 172.5 WEST OR ABOUT 320 KILOMETRES WESTSOUTHWEST OF NIUE AT 141400 UTC. POSITION FAIR. REPEAT POSITION 20.6S 172.5W AT 141400 UTC. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST AT 40KM/HR AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 111 KM/HR, WINDS OVER 87 KM/HR WITHIN 37 KILOMETRES OF CENTRE AND OVER 65 KM/HR WITHIN 167 KILOMETRES OF CENTRE.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 380 KILOMETRES SOUTHWEST OF NIUE AT 141800 UTC AND ABOUT 440 KILOMETRES SOUTHSOUTHWEST OF NIUE BY 142100UTC.

ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO NIUE, THE OUTER ACTIVE RAIN BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLAND.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 37 TO 45 KILOMETRES PER HOUR GUSTING 65 KILOMETRES PER HOUR, EASING LATER TODAY. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS, EASING TONIGHT. VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR NIUE ON TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL AND THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE ROUTINE BULLETIN AT 141630 UTC. PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.
______________________

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

142100Z POSITION NEAR 22.6S 171.3W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (URMIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS DECREASING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A RAPIDLY MOVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TC 07P WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AFTER TAU 12, AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z.//
______________________

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA 5N TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 180 AND EQ TO 25S BETWEEN 180 AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Jan 142000 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNING Storm Warning 019 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 14/1912 UTC 2006 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone Urmil [980hPa] centre was located near 22.3 South 171.9 West at 141800 UTC. Position Fair. Repeat position 22.3S 171.9W at 141800 UTC. Cyclone moving southeast at 20 knots and expected to accelerate further. Cyclone weakening. Expect sustained winds of 55 knots close to the centre decreasing to 45 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 20 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre. Forecast position near 26.4S 170.3W at 150600 UTC and near 28.0S 169.6W at 151800 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI and TCWC Wellington. For RSMC Nadi: VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 018.

PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Jan 151800 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL[980HPA] CENTRE NEAR 22.3S 171.9W AT 141800 UTC. POSITION FAIR. MOVING SOUTHEAST 20 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER. APART FROM WINDS MENTIONED IN STORM WARNING EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE CENTRE. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS.
______________________

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these systems as they develop.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/SM Cyclone Urmil (06F) #3-2006: Cyclone Urmil passing east of Vava'u Group

RSMC-Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on newly formed Cyclone Urmil (formally Tropical Depression 06F).

Cyclone Urmil is now located in Northern Tonga about 90 km east-northeast of Vava'u (population 15,000). Cyclone Urmil is currently moving south-southeast at 18 kt (33 km/hr) and if it continues on this forecast course is likely to pass to the east of the main Central and Southern Tonga Groups and well to the west of Niue in the next 12 hours.

Cyclone Urmil is currently passing 90 km east of the Vava'u Group so they are receiving intermittent gales and tidal flooding. It is forecast to pass about 150 km east of the Ha'apai Group (population 9,000) and later tonight about 180 km east of the Nomuka Group (only sparsely/seasonally inhabited). When Urmil passes the main capital island group of Tongatapu, it should well to the east of the group by about 300 km so they will only feel the fringe of the storm. Given the more southerly direction Cyclone Urmil should not come more than 300 km west of Niue, so the effects should be low to there as well, so this is also much better news than previously. Nonetheless a change in course in either direction could bring the cyclone much closer very quickly.

As Urmil is at Tropical Storm strength and moving quite quickly, damage is not likely to be too significant. Nonetheless, some tidal flooding and wind damage is likely, and all residents in the Vava'u, Ha'apai and Tongatapu Groups and Niue should continue to closely monitor the storm and all newscasts and follow all instructions issued by local authorities. Also, the cumulative effects of this very active trough which has included Cyclones Urmil and Tam with Depression 05F in the last 3 days, could begin to result in increasing crop damage, significant coastal erosion, and localised flooding of low-lying areas particularly in the Niuas Group of Tonga, which is the area to have recieved direct hits from both Tam and Urmil.

All interests in Tonga, Niue, the Cook Islands and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this situation carefully and listen to news and weather reports as the situations develops over the next few days. Even though the storms are moving away from other island areas such Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, and American Samoa, seas will remain very rough throughout much of the area and the associated trough is still causing locally strong winds, and heavy rains and thunderstorms. Where advisories, alerts and warnings have been raised all people should take appropriate action as instructed by local authorities. Pacific NGOs should monitor this situation very carefully.

Damage Report from Futuna from Cyclone Tam: Many branches down, several trees down and one large yacht stranded on the reef. No injuries or major damage reported. This is similar to the damage being reported from Niuafo'au, Niuas Group, Tonga after the passage of Cyclone Tam.

With Cyclone Urmil and the very active Convergence Zone and all the tropical storm activity, there are a wide array of advisories, alerts and warnings that have been raised. The following is a list of advisories, alerts and warnings currently in effect.

CURRENT ADVISORIES, ALERTS AND WARNINGS

TONGA
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VAVA'U GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, IS NOW IN FORCE FOR HA'APAI GROUP AND IS CANCELLED FOR NIUATOPUTAPU.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP.

NIUE
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

SAMOA
FLOOD ADVISORY
STRONG WIND ADVISORY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

AMERICAN SAMOA
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT

TUVALU - STONG WIND WARNING

SOUTHWEST MARINE - GALE WARNING
_________________

FROM RSMC-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B3 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 14/0806 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone URMIL 06F [990hPa] centre was located near 17.8S 173.2W at 140600 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT EIR imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving southsoutheast 18 knots and expected to accelerate further. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 40 knots close to the centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre.

Primary band continues to wrap tightly around LLCC. Fanning of cirrus indicates improved outflow channels to the south and west, and becoming good elsewhere. Dvorak analysis based on a 0.6 log-10 spiral wrap, gives a DT=PT=3.0 and MET=2.5, yields T3.0/3.0/D1.0/12hrs. Urmil lies under divergent 250-hpa flow ahead of an approaching trough. Environmental shear is around 10 to 20 knots, however resultant shear is negligible given the increasing translational speed of the cyclone. SST around 29C. Global models that have captured the system move it rather rapidly southeast with some initial intensification.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 141800 UTC near 21.7S 172.4W mov SSE at 20kt with 45 kt close to the centre.
24hrs valid at 150600 UTC near 25.5S 170.6W mov SSE at 25kt with 45 kt close to the centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 151800 UTC near 29.8S 167.7W mov SE at 28kt with 40kt close to the centre.
48hrs valid at 160600 UTC near 34.4S 164.1W mov SE at 30kt with 40kt close to the centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone URMIL will be issued around 141400 UTC.
______________________

Special Weather Bulletin Number FIVE for Tonga on TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL issued
from RSMC NADI
Jan 14/0746 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VAVA'U GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, IS NOW IN FORCE FOR HA'APAI GROUP AND IS CANCELLED FOR NIUATOPUTAPU.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP.

TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL [990 HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1 SOUTH 173.1 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF VAVAU AT 140700 UTC. POSITION POOR. REPEAT POSITION 18.1S 173.1W AT 140700 UTC. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 70 MILES EAST OF HA'APAI GROUP AND 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VAVAU GROUP AT 141200 UTC OR 100 MILES EASTSOUTHEAST OF HA'APAI GROUP AND ABOUT 120 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOMUKA GROUP AT 141500 UTC.

FOR VAVAU GROUP, NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND HA'APAI GROUP: EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS. SEAS VERY ROUGH TO HIGH. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE NIUAS:
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 T0 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS GRADUALLY EASING AND TURNING SOUTHERLY.
CLOUDY PERIODS WITH SOME SHOWERS. ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF TONGA:
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. WINDS MAY POSSIBLY INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS FROM LATER TONIGHT. RAIN DEVELOPING, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SOME SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. DAMAGING HEAVY
SWELLS.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR THE MARINERS: EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO URMIL'S CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF
CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA ON TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL WILL ISSUED AROUND 141045 UTC. TONGA MET PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.
______________________

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWO for Niue ON TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 14/0442 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL [990 HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8 SOUTH 173.4 WEST OR ABOUT 440 KILOMETRES NORTHWEST OF NIUE AT 140300 UTC. POSITION POOR. REPEAT POSITION 16.8S 173.4W AT 140300 UTC. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 27KM/HR AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 74 KM/HR CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 85 KH/HR IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 65 KM/HR WITHIN 185 KILOMETRES OF CENTRE.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 290 KILOMETRES NORTHWEST OF NIUE AT 140900 UTC AND ABOUT 200 KILOMETRES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NIUE AT 141500.

IF THE CYCLONE MAINTAINS ITS TRACK OR MOVE CLOSER TO NIUE, WINDS MAY INCREAE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE OVER THE ISLAND FROM LATER TONIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS 37 TO 45 KILOMETRES PER HOUR GUSTING 65 KILOMETRES PER HOUR, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 65 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 95 KM/HR FROM LATER TONIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR THE MARINERS: EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR NIUE ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 140930 UTC.
______________________

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

140900Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 172.9W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (URMIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER A RAPIDLY MOVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. BY TAU 36, IT WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 140221Z JAN 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 140230). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (TAM) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
______________________

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
5N TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 180 AND EQ TO 25S BETWEEN 180 AND 120W.
ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE 5N to 25S between 160E and 180 and EQ to 25S between 180 and 120W
issued by Fiji Meteorological Service Jan 140800 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNINGGALE WARNING 017 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 14/0712 UTC 2006 UTC.TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL [990HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8 SOUTH 173.2 WEST AT 140600 UTC. POSITION POOR.

REPEAT POSITION 17.8S 173.2W AT 140600 UTC.CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 18 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE
CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 21.7S 172.4W AT 141800 UTC AND NEAR 25.5S 170.6W AT 150600 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 015.

CANCEL WARNING 016.

PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Jan 150600 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL CENTRE [990HPA] NEAR 17.8S 173.2W AT 14/0600 UTC. POSITION POOR. MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 18 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER. APART FROM GALE WARNING AREAS MENTIONED IN GALE WARNING NUMBER 017 EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE CENTRE. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS.
______________________

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these systems as they develop.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/SM Cyclone Urmil (06F) #2-2006: Cyclone Urmil develops from Tropical Depression 06F; Urmil over Tafahi and Niuatoputapu

RSMC-Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on newly formed Cyclone Urmil (formally Tropical Depression 06F).

Cyclone Urmil has formed very quickly in the last 24 hours and is now located in Northern Tonga about 50 km northwest of Niuatoputapu or about 300 km north of the Vava'u Group. Cyclone Urmil is moving southeast at 10 kt (18.5 km/hr) toward Niue where a Cyclone Alert has been raised.

The Tongan Niuas Group islands of Tafahi (population 60) and Niuatoputapu (population 1400) have spent the last several hours around the centre of the storm, and this will continue for some more hours before it moves away toward the southeast.

Cyclone Urmil is currently forecast to pass over 200 km northeast of the Vava'u Group so they are likely to only get a glancing blow, but any change in course, could worsen the situation quickly. As Urmil is at Tropical Storm strength and moving quite quickly, damage is not likely to be too significant. Nonetheless, some tidal flooding and wind damage is likely, and all residents in the Niuas, Vava'u and Niue should continue to closely monitor the storm and all newscasts and follow all instructions issued by local authorities. Also, the cumulative effects of this very active trough which has included Cyclones Urmil and Tam with Depression 05F in the last 3 days, could begin to result in increasing crop damage, significant coastal erosion, and localised flooding of low-lying areas particularly in the Niuas Group of Tonga, which is the area to have recieved direct hits from both Tam and Urmil.

All interests in Tonga, Niue, the Cook Islands and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this situation carefully and listen to news and weather reports as the situations develops over the next few days. Even though the storms are moving away from other island areas such Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, and American Samoa, seas will remain very rough throughout much of the area and the associated trough is still causing locally strong winds, and heavy rains and thunderstorms. Where advisories, alerts and warnings have been raised all people should take appropriate action as instructed by local authorities. Pacific NGOs should monitor this situation very carefully.

Damage Report from Futuna from Cyclone Tam: Many branches down, several trees down and one large yacht stranded on the reef. No injuries or major damage reported. This is similar to the damage being reported from Niuafo'au, Niuas Group, Tonga after the passage of Cyclone Tam.

With Cyclone Urmil and the very active Convergence Zone and all the tropical storm activity, there are a wide array of advisories, alerts and warnings that have been raised. The following is a list of advisories, alerts and warnings currently in effect.

CURRENT ADVISORIES, ALERTS AND WARNINGS


TONGA
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUAFO'OU, NIUATOPUTAPU, VAVAU GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF TONGA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF TONGA

NIUE
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

COOK ISLANDS
THE STRONG WIND WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR WATERS ABOUT PALMERSTON IS NOW CANCELLED.

SAMOA - FLOOD ADVISORY, STRONG WIND ADVISORY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AUNUU AND MANUA ISLANDS

TUVALU - STONG WIND WARNING

SOUTHWEST MARINE - GALE WARNING
_________________

FROM RSMC-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE
GALE WARNING 015 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 13/2232 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil [995hPa] centre was located near 15.3 South 174.1 West at 132100 UTC.
Position poor.
Repeat position 15.3S 174.1W at 132100 UTC.
Cyclone moving southeast at about 10 knots.
Cyclone intensifying.
Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre.

Forecast position near 17.2S 173.5W at 140900 UTC and near 18.9S 172.5W at 142100 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 013
______________________

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWO for Tonga on TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL issued
from RSMC NADI
Jan 13/2247 UTC 2006 UTC.
T
ROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUAFO'OU, NIUATOPUTAPU, VAVAU GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF TONGA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF TONGA

TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL [995 HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3 SOUTH 174.1 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF NIUATOPUTAPU OR ABOUT 190 MILES NORTH OF VAVAU AT 132100 UTC. POSITION POOR. REPEAT POSITION 15.3S 174.1W AT 132100 UTC. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH OF NIUATOPUTAPU OR 135 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF VAVAU AT 140300 UTC AND ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NIUATOPUTAPU OR 90 MILES NORTHEAST OF VAVAU AT 140900 UTC.

FOR NIUAFO'OU, NIUATOPUTAPU, VAVAU GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED. SEAS VERY ROUGH TO HIGH. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF TONGA;
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. WINDS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS FROM LATER TOMORROW. OCCASIONAL RAIN DEVELOPING, WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. HEAVY SWELLS.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR THE MARINERS: EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA ON TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL WILL ISSUED AROUND 140145 UTC. TONGA MET PSE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT.
______________________

Special Weather Bulletin Number ONE for Niue ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 13/2133 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F [999HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3 SOUTH 174.1 WEST OR ABOUT 610 KILOMETRES NORTHWEST OF NIUE AT 132000 UTC. POSITION POOR. REPEAT POSITION 15.3S 174.1W AT 132000 UTC. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 46 KM/HR POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN 110 KM OF CENTRE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEPRESSION O6F DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AND HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF BECOMING A CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 440 KILOMETRES NORTHWEST OF NIUE BY 140800 UTC AND ABOUT 300 KILOMETRES WEST OF NIUE BY 142000.

IF THE DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES FURTHER TO A CYCLONE AND MAINTAINS ITS TRACK OR MOVE CLOSER TO NIUE, WINDS MAY INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE OVER THE ISLAND FROM LATER TOMORROW.

NORTHWEST WINDS 37 TO 45 KILOMETRES PER HOUR GUSTING 65 KILOMETRES PER HOUR, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 65 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 95 KM/HR FROM LATER TOMORROW. OCCASIONAL RAIN, GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FREQUENT AND HEAVY AT TIMES. SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR NIUE ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 140330 UTC.
______________________

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

TO BE UPDATED.
______________________

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA 5N TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 180 AND EQ TO 25S BETWEEN 180 AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Jan 132000 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNING GALE WARNING 013 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 13/1823 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F [999HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 174.0W AT 131800 UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

GALE WARNING 014 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 13/1913 UTC 2006 UTC.TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [987HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6 SOUTH 169.3 WEST AT 131800 UTC. POSITION POOR. REPEAT POSITION 23.6S 169.3W AT 131800 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 23 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION NEAR 28.0S 168.1W AT 140600 UTC AND NEAR 32.5S 165.6W AT 141800 UTC. ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 012.

PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Jan 141800 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [987HPA] NEAR 23.6S 169.3W AT 1800 UTC. POSITION POOR. MOVING SOUTHEAST 23 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER. APART FROM GALE WARNING AREAS MENTIONED IN GALE WARNING NUMBER 014 EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND 80 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.

______________________

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these systems as they develop.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/SM Tropical Depression 06F #1-2006: New Tropical Depression 06F Forms as Cyclone Tam Exits into the Southern Ocean

RSMC-Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on newly formed Tropical Depression 06F and on Cyclone Tam (formally Tropical Depression 04F). Just as Cyclone Tam exists into the Southern Ocean south of Niue, a new Tropical Depression, designated 06F, formed last night between Samoa and Northern Tonga.

As Cyclone Tam has passed well into the Southern Ocean and is no longer posing a threat to any island areas and has weakened, APCEDI will discontinue reporting on this system.

Tropical Depression 06F formed last night very quickly and is now located in Northern Tonga about 80 km southeast of Niuatoputapu or about 300 km north of the Vava'u Group. Tropical Depression 06F is moving southeast at 10 kt (18.5 km/hr) toward Niue where a Cyclone Alert has been raised.

The Tongan Niuas Group islands of Tafahi (population 60) and Niuatoputapu (population 1400) have spent the last few hours in the centre of the storm. Tropical Depression 06F should pass over 200 km northeast of the Vava'u Group so they are likely to only get a glancing blow. As 06F is a depression and moving quite quickly, damage is not likely to be too significant. Nonetheless, some tidal flooding and wind damage is likely, and all residents in the Niuas, Vava'u and Niue should continue to closely monitor the storm and all newscasts and follow all instructions issued by local authorities. Also, the cumulative effects of this very active trough which has included Cyclone Tam with Depressions 05F and 06F in the last 3 days, could begin to result in increasing crop damage, significant coastal erosion, and localised flooding of low-lying areas.

All interests in Tonga, Niue, the Cook Islands and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this situation carefully and listen to news and weather reports as the situations develops over the next few days. Even though the storms are moving away from other island areas such Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, and American Samoa, seas will remain very rough throughout much of the area and the associated trough is still causing locally strong winds, and heavy rains and thunderstorms. Where advisories, alerts and warnings have been raised all people should take appropriate action as instructed by local authorities. Pacific NGOs should monitor this situation very carefully.

With the very active Convergence Zone and all the tropical storm activity, there are a wide array of advisories, alerts and warnings that have been raised. The following is a list of advisories, alerts and warnings currently in effect.

CURRENT ADVISORIES, ALERTS AND WARNINGS

NIUE
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

TONGA
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TONGA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE WHOLE OF TONGA.

COOK ISLANDS
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR WATERS FROM PALMERSTON TO RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
A STRONG WIND WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA MARINE AND LAND AREAS IS NOW CANCELLED.

SAMOA - FLOOD ADVISORY, STRONG WIND ADVISORY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AUNUU AND MANUA ISLANDS

TUVALU - STONG WIND WARNING

SOUTHWEST MARINE - GALE WARNING
_________________

FROM RSMC-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B1 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 13/2047 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Depression 06F centre [999hPa] centre was located near 14.0S 174.0W at 131800 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Depression moving southeast 10 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds 20 to 25 knots increasing to 35 knots within 60 miles of centre in the next 12 to 24 hours.

06F erupted overnight with rapid development. Organisation now good and increasing. Deep convection cooling steadily. Primary band to east wrapping tightly around llcc. Some indication though of environmental influence. Outflow good to east and north but developing elsewhere. Depression lies under divergent 250-hpa flow and 20 to 25-kt shear. SST around 29C. Global models that have captured the system move it rather rapidly southeast with some intensification. Potential for 06F to become a cyclone in the next 24 hours is moderate to good.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Depression 06F will be issued around 140230 UTC.
______________________

Special Weather Bulletin Number ONE for Tonga on TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 13/2114 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TONGA.
A STRONG WIND WARNIG IS IN FORCE FOR THE WHOLE OF TONGA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F [999HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3 SOUTH 174.1 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NIUATOPUTAPU OR ABOUT 190 MILES NORTH OF VAVAU AT 132000 UTC. POSITION POOR. REPEAT POSITION 15.3S 174.1W AT 132000 UTC. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEPRESSION O6F DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AND HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF BECOMING A CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ON THIS TRACK, THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH OF NIUATOPUTAPU OR 135 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF VAVAU AT 140400 UTC AND ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NIUATOPUTAPU OR 90 MILES NORTHEAST OF VAVAU AT 140800 UTC.

IF THE DEPRESSION DEVELOPS FURTHER AND/OR BECOME A CYCLONE, EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF TONGA LATER TODAY.

FOR THE NIUAS AND VAVAU:
WINDS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED. SEAS VERY ROUGH TO HIGH. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF TONGA;
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. WINDS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. CLOUDY PERIODS WITH SOME SHOWERS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SEAS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. HEAVY SWELLS.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR THE MARINERS:
EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F WILL ISSUED AROUND 140300 UTC OR EARLIER IF WARRANTED. TONGA MET PSE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT.
______________________

Special Weather Bulletin Number ONE for Niue ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 13/2133 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F [999HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3 SOUTH 174.1 WEST OR ABOUT 610 KILOMETRES NORTHWEST OF NIUE AT 132000 UTC. POSITION POOR. REPEAT POSITION 15.3S 174.1W AT 132000 UTC. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 46 KM/HR POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN 110 KM OF CENTRE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEPRESSION O6F DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AND HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF BECOMING A CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 440 KILOMETRES NORTHWEST OF NIUE BY 140800 UTC AND ABOUT 300 KILOMETRES WEST OF NIUE BY 142000.

IF THE DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES FURTHER TO A CYCLONE AND MAINTAINS ITS TRACK OR MOVE CLOSER TO NIUE, WINDS MAY INCREAE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE OVER THE ISLAND FROM LATER TOMORROW.

NORTHWEST WINDS 37 TO 45 KILOMETRES PER HOUR GUSTING 65 KILOMETRES PER HOUR, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 65 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 95 KM/HR FROM LATER TOMORROW. OCCASIONAL RAIN, GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FREQUENT AND HEAVY AT TIMES. SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR NIUE ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 140330 UTC.
______________________

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

TO BE UPDATED.
______________________

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA 5N TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 180 AND EQ TO 25S BETWEEN 180 AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Jan 132000 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNING GALE WARNING 013 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 13/1823 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F [999HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 174.0W AT 131800 UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

GALE WARNING 014 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 13/1913 UTC 2006 UTC.TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [987HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6 SOUTH 169.3 WEST AT 131800 UTC. POSITION POOR. REPEAT POSITION 23.6S 169.3W AT 131800 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 23 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION NEAR 28.0S 168.1W AT 140600 UTC AND NEAR 32.5S 165.6W AT 141800 UTC. ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 012.

PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Jan 141800 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [987HPA] NEAR 23.6S 169.3W AT 1800 UTC. POSITION POOR. MOVING SOUTHEAST 23 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER. APART FROM GALE WARNING AREAS MENTIONED IN GALE WARNING NUMBER 014 EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND 80 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.

______________________

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these systems as they develop.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/FJ Cyclone Tam (04F) #6-2006: Cyclone Tam Passing Through Tonga on way to Niue

RSMC-Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Tam. Tropical Depression 05F is no longer a threat, and reports on this system have been discontinued.

This afternoon Cyclone Tam has moved southeast at 20 kts (37 km/hr) between the Niuas and the Vava'u Group. The centre of Cyclone Tam now lies 240 kms east the Vava'u Group, and system continues to accelerate to the southeast. Once the Cyclone clears Tonga later tonight, Niue is the next island territory under threat, and a Tropical Cyclone Gale Warning has now been raised for there. Forecasts have the centre passing about 100-150 kms from the island.

As it is a weak cyclone and moving quite quickly, damage is not likely to be too significant. Reports from the Niuas Group confirm this as they have noted lots of fallen branches, minor damage to crops and some localised power interruption, but nothing significant. Nonetheless, some tidal flooding and wind damage is likely, and all residents in the Niuas, Vava'u and Niue should continue to closely monitor the storm and all newscasts and follow all instructions issued by local authorities.

All interests in Tonga, Niue, the Cook Islands and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this situation carefully and listen to news and weather reports as the situations develops over the next few days. Even though the storms are moving away from Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, and American Samoa, seas will remain very rough throughout much of the area and the associated trough is still causing locally strong winds, and heavy rains and thunderstorms. Where advisories, alerts and warnings have been raised all people should take appropriate action as instructed by local authorities. Pacific NGOs should monitor this situation very carefully.

The following is a list of advisories, alerts and warnings currently in effect.

CURRENT ADVISORIES, ALERTS AND WARNINGS

NIUE
A TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE

TONGA
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA WATERS.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR VAVAU AND HAAPAI GROUPS IS NOW CANCELLED.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR SOUTHERN TONGA IS ALSO CANCELLED.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR FUTUNA IS NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA MARINE AND LAND AREAS.

SAMOA - FLOOD ADVISORY, STRONG WIND ADVISORY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

AMERICAN SAMOA - GALE WARNING, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

FIJI - A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL FIJI WATERS.

TUVALU - STONG WIND WARNING

SOUTHWEST MARINE - GALE WARNING
_________________

FROM RSMC-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A6 issued from RSMC NADI

Jan 13/0223 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [987hPa] was located near 17.0 South 173.2 West at 130000 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT/EIR imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving southeast at about 15 knots but accelerating further to 20 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 45 knots. Winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of the centre in the sector from north through south to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere.

Overall organisation decreased past 6 hours. Deep convection decreased as well. Shear increasing over system and significantly influencing development. Dvorak analysis based on .5 wrap thus T2.5/3.0/D1.0/24hrs. MET=3, PT=2.5 CI=3. SST around 29C. Tam lies under divergent 250-hpa region but moving rapidly into stronger shear region. Cyclone currently steered southeast by deep mean layer northwesterlies. Consensus track gradually takes Tam towards the south-southeast with decreasing chances of intensification.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 131200 UTC near 22.6S 172.0W mov SE at 23 kt with 45 kt close to the centre
24hrs valid at 140000 UTC near 27.4S 172.3W mov S at 25 kt with 45 kt close to the centre

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 141200 UTC near 30.7S 170.7W mov S at 23 kt with 40 kt close to the centre
48hrs valid at 150000 UTC near 35.9S 170.0W mov S at 24 kt with 30 kt close to the centre

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone TAM will be issued around 130800 UTC.
______________________

Special Weather Bulletin Number TEN for Tonga on TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM issued from RSMC NADI

Jan 13/0555 UTC 2006 UTC.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR VAVAU AND HAAPAI GROUPS IS NOW CANCELLED.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR SOUTHERN TONGA IS ALSO CANCELLED.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [987HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3 SOUTH 171.4 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF VAVAU AT 130500 UTC. POSITION POOR. REPEAT POSITION 18.3S 171.4W AT 130500 UTC. THE CYCLONE IS NOW ACCELERATING SOUTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY MORE, FURTHER AWAY FROM TONGA. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 235 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VAVAU OR 284 MILES EAST OF NUKUALOFA AT 131000 UTC.

FOR TONGA:
OVER THE NIUAFO'OU AND NIUATOPUTAPU, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS GRADUALLY EASING. ELSEWHERE, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS GRADUALLY EASING OVERNIGHT. CLOUDY WITH SOME RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS VERY ROUGH. HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS LIKELY.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR THE MARINERS: EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM UNLESS WARRANTED. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE ROUTINE BULLETIN AT 131630 UTC.
______________________

Special Weather Bulletin Number FOUR for Niue ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 13/0452 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE

TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [987HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0 SOUTH 171.8 WEST OR ABOUT 231 KILOMETRES WEST-NORTHWEST OF NIUE AT 130400 UTC. POSITION FAIR. REPEAT POSITION 18.0S 171.8W AT 130400 UTC. THE CYCLONE IS ACCELERATING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 37 KM/HR. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 85 KM/HR. EXPECT WINDS OVER 61 KM/HR WITHIN 185 KILOMETRES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 110 KILOMETRES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 136 KILOMETRES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NIUE OR NEARER BY 131000 UTC AND WITHIN 390 KILOMETRES SOUTH OF NIUE AT 131600 UTC.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 65 TO 75 KILOMETRES PER HOUR GUSTING TO 90 TO 100 KILOMETRES PER HOUR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS VERY ROUGH TO HIGH. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR NIUE WILL ISSUED AROUND 130800 UTC OR EARLIER. PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.
______________________

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 172.1W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (TAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 06P CONTINUES TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AND TRANSLATE RAPIDLY. TC 06P WILL PEAK IN INTENSIY LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT ENTERS AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 121951ZJAN2006 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 122000) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 09 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z AND 140300Z.//
______________________

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA 5N TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 180 AND EQ TO 25S BETWEEN 180 AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Jan 122000 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNING GALE WARNING 009 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 12/1915 UTC 2006 UTC.TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [987HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0 SOUTH 175.0 WEST AT 121800 UTC. POSITION POOR. REPEAT POSITION 16.0S 175.0W AT 121800 UTC.CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS.CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 19.7S 172.9W AT 130600 UTC AND NEAR 24.4S 172.2W AT 131800 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 007.
GALE WARNING 010 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 12/1932 UTC 2006 UTC
CANCEL WARNING 008.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Jan 131800 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [987HPA] NEAR 15.0S 175.0W POSITION POOR. MOVING SOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS. OUTSIDE GALE WARNING AREA MENTIONED IN GALE WARNING NUMBER 009 EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE.EXPECT ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F [996HPA] NEAR 20.4S 170.7W MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF CENTRE. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.
______________________

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these systems as they develop.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/FJ Cyclone Tam (04F) #5-2006: Cyclone Tam Continues to Pass Through Niuas Group, Tonga

RSMC-Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on both Cyclone Tam ( formerly Tropical Depression 04F) and Tropical Depression 05F.

This morning Cyclone Tam is moving southeast through the Northern Tongan Niuas Group at 15 kts (28 km/hr). Depression 05F is moving south-southeast also at 15 kts (28 km/hr) into the Southern Ocean south of Niue. It is being highly sheared by upper level winds and is likely to be assimilated back into the trough later today. Both these systems continue to cause very stormy weather for many island areas in the South Pacific. A number of advisories, alerts and warnings continue across the region.

This morning Cyclone Tam (04F) is located 40 km southeast of Niuafo'ou, Tonga. It is expected to maintain its southeast track. Cyclone Tam remains at Tropical Storm strength. On its current course Tam will pass through the Niuas this morning and head toward the Vava'u and Ha'apai Groups later this afternoon. Niuafo'ou (population 500) has been near the centre of the storm for some hours, but no reports of significant damage has been reported. As it is a weak cyclone and moving quite quickly, damage is not likely to be too significant. Nonetheless, some tidal flooding and wind damage is likely, and all residents in the Niuas, Vava'u and Ha'apai Groups should closely monitor the storm and all newscasts and follow all instructions issued by local authorities.

Once the Cyclone clears Tonga later tonight or tomorrow, Niue is the next island territory under threat, and a cyclone alert has now been raised for there.

All interests in Tonga, Niue, the Cook Islands and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this situation carefully and listen to news and weather reports as the situations develops over the next few days. Even though the storms are moving away from Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, and American Samoa, seas will remain very rough throughout much of the area and the associated trough is still causing locally strong winds, and heavy rains and thunderstorms. Where advisories, alerts and warnings have been raised all people should take appropriate action as instructed by local authorities. Pacific NGOs should monitor this situation very carefully.

The following is a list of advisories, alerts and warnings currently in effect.

CURRENT ADVISORIES, ALERTS AND WARNINGS

TONGA
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE NIUAS AND VAVA'U GROUP.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF TONGA.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE NIUAS AND THE VAVA'U GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF TONGA.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR FUTUNA IS NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA MARINE AND LAND AREAS.

NIUE
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

SAMOA - FLOOD ADVISORY, STRONG WIND ADVISORY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

AMERICAN SAMOA - GALE WARNING, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

FIJI - A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL FIJI WATERS.

TUVALU - STONG WIND WARNING

SOUTHWEST MARINE - GALE WARNING
_________________

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A4 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/1411 UTC 2006 UTC.
CYCLONE TAM

Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [988hPa] was located near 15.5 South 175.8 West at 121200 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT/EIR imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving southeast at about 20 knots. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 40 knots increasing to 45 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours, winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of the centre in the sector from north through south to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere.

Deep convection has formed a cold overcast overlying the LLCC in the past 6 hours, while the primary band to the east continues to mature and feed into system. Dvorak analysis based on a .55 wrap gives a DT=2.5, MET=3.0 and PAT=3.5. FT based on MET yields T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24hrs. SST around 29C. CIMSS indicates 10 to 20 knots shear over the cyclone. Resultant shear over the cyclone is currently negligible. Conditions are favourable for further intensification of Tam in the next 12 to 24 hours as it is steered southeastwards by deep environmental northwesterlies.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 130000 UTC near 18.5S 173.1W mov SE at 20 kt with 45 kt close to the centre
24hrs valid at 131200 UTC near 21.7S 171.2W mov SE at 20 kt with 45 kt close to the centre

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 140000 UTC near 27.4S 169.1W mov SE at 30 kt with 45 kt close to the centre
48hrs valid at 141200 UTC near 33.6S 166.5W mov SE at 35 kt with 45 kt close to the centre

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone TAM will
be issued around 122000 UTC.
______________________

FROM RSMC-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION O5F

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B4 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/1422 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Depression 05F centre [996hPa] centre was located near 20.7S 169.7W at 121200 UTC. Position poor based on HR GOES-10/EIR imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Depression moving southsoutheast 15 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds 30 to 35 knots within 60 to 240 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle.

LLCC is well exposed and deep convection which was displaced to the southeast has been blown away strong northwesterlies. 05F lies under 50 knot northwest winds at 250hpa and environmental shear over the system is increasing to 40-50 knots. Global models move the depression further south without further intensification.

This will be the final Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Depression 05F.
______________________

Special Weather Bulletin Number THREE for Tonga on TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/0832 UTC 2006 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING-TONGA

Special Weather Bulletin Number SIX for Tonga on TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/1729 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE NIUAS AND VAVA'U GROUP.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF TONGA.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE NIUAS AND THE VAVA'U GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF TONGA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [987HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0 SOUTH 175.1 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NIUAFO'OU AND ABOUT 75 MILES WEST OF NIUATOPUTAPU AT 121700 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 TO 45 KNOTS, WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ON ITS FORCAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE 60 MILES NORTH OF VAVA'U GROUP AND 100 MILES SOUTH OF NIUATOPUTAPU AT 122100 UTC AND 50 MILES EASTNORTHEAST OF VAVA'U GROUP OR 110 MILES NORTHEAST OF HA'APAI GROUP AT 130000 UTC.

FOR NIUAFO'OU AND NIUATOPUTAPU, EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 45 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING SEA FLOODING. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITH DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR VAVA'U GROUP, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 35 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH. HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF TONGA, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 35 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS FROM LATER TODAY. RAIN BECOMING FREQUENT AND HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING VERY ROUGH. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR THE MARINERS: EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 40 TO 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE, OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for Tonga on TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM will be issued around 122045 UTC or earlier. TONGA MET PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.
______________________

Special Weather Bulletin Number ONE for Niue ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 12/1350 UTC 2006 UTC.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [988HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5 SOUTH 175.8 WEST AT 121200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS [74 KILOMETRES PER HOUR] INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS [83 KILOMETRES PER HOUR] IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS, WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS [61 KILOMETRES PER HOUR] WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE WITHIN 340 KILOMETRES WESTNORTHWEST OF NIUE AT 130000 UTC AND WITHIN 240 KILOMETRES WESTSOUTHWEST OF NIUE AT 130600 UTC.

ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM IS EXPECTED TO PASS FURTHER WEST OF NIUE, ITS OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE LIKELY TO SWEEP ACROSS THE ISLAND AND BRING SQUALLY CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WIINDS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KILOMETRES PER HOUR INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KILOMETRES PER HOUR IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND GUSTING TO 70 KILOMETRES PER HOUR. POSSIBLE DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS 65 KILOMETRES PER HOUR GUSTING 90 KILOMTETRES PER HOUR DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH. HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR NIUE WILL ISSUED AROUND 122000 UTC OR EARLIER. PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.
______________________

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY
______________________

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA 5N TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 180 AND EQ TO 25S BETWEEN 180 AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Jan 122000 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNING GALE WARNING 009 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 12/1915 UTC 2006 UTC.TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [987HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0 SOUTH 175.0 WEST AT 121800 UTC. POSITION POOR. REPEAT POSITION 16.0S 175.0W AT 121800 UTC.CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS.CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 19.7S 172.9W AT 130600 UTC AND NEAR 24.4S 172.2W AT 131800 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 007.
GALE WARNING 010 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 12/1932 UTC 2006 UTC
CANCEL WARNING 008.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Jan 131800 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [987HPA] NEAR 15.0S 175.0W POSITION POOR. MOVING SOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS. OUTSIDE GALE WARNING AREA MENTIONED IN GALE WARNING NUMBER 009 EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE.EXPECT ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F [996HPA] NEAR 20.4S 170.7W MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF CENTRE.ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these systems as they develop.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/FJ Cyclone Tam (04F) #4-2006: Cyclone Tam becomes Season's First Cyclone, Bears down on Tonga

RSMC-Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on both Cyclone Tam ( formerly Tropical Depression 04F) and Tropical Depression 05F.

This evening depression 04F has intensified into the South Pacific season's first Tropical Cyclone, Cyclone Tam. Depression 05F also continues to slowly strengthen. Both these systems are causing very stormy weather for many island areas in the South Pacific. A number of advisories, alerts and warnings continue across the region.

Cyclone Tam (04F) is located 160 kms east-southeast of Futuna or about 170 kms west-northwest of Niuafo'ou, Tonga, and it moving east at 15 knots (28 km/hr). It is expected to curve east-southeast in the next 12 to 24 hours. Cyclone Tam is currently at minimal Tropical Storm strength.

Depression 05F is located about 170 km east of Niue or 600 kms south-southeast of Pago Pago in American Samoa and is moving west-southwest 10 knots (19 km/hr).

The island of Futuna spent several hours near the centre of the Cyclone Tam earlier today, but as the storm was still quite small in intensity, it is likely that only minor damage and minor localised flooding resulted. Reports should come in later tomorrow. Futuna is a French Protectorate with just over 4,800 inhabitants.

Later tonight and tomorrow, Cyclone Tam will be bearing down on the Northern Tongan Niuas Group consisting of the main islands Niuafo'ou (population 500), Tafahi (population 60) and Niuatoputapu (population 1400). As it is a weak cyclone and moving quite quickly, damage is not likely to be too significant. Nonetheless, all Niuas Gruop residents should closely monitor the storm and all newscasts and follow all instructions issued by local authorities.

All interests in Tonga, Wallis and Futuna, Niue, the Cook Islands and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this situation carefully and listen to news and weather reports as the situations develops over the next few days. Even though the storms are moving away from Fiji, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, and American Samoa, seas will remain very rough throughout much of the area and the associated trough is still causing locally strong winds, and heavy rains and thunderstorms. Where advisories, alerts and warnings have been raised all people should take appropriate action as instructed by local authorities. Pacific NGOs should monitor this situation very carefully.

The following is a list of advisories, alerts and warnings currently in effect.

CURRENT ADVISORIES, ALERTS AND WARNINGS

TONGA -
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE NIUAS.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAIN IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF TONGA.
A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE NIUAS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGA.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA-
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR FUTUNA IS NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA.

NIUE-A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUE WATERS.

SAMOA - FLOOD ADVISORY, STRONG WIND ADVISORY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

AMERICAN SAMOA - WIND ADVISORY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

FIJI - A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL FIJI WATERS.

TUVALU - STONG WIND WARNING

SOUTHWEST MARINE - GALE WARNING


FROM RSMC-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE
CYCLONE TAM

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/0800 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [991hPa] was located near 14.7 South 177.3 West at 120600 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT/EIR imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving east at about 15 knots and expected to curve eastsoutheast in the next 12 to 24 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 35 to 40 knots, over 33 knots within 90 miles of the centre in the sector from north through south to
southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere.

Deep convection has erupted close to the LLCC in the last 6 hours, while primary band to the east continues to feed into system. Dvorak analysis based on a .55 wrap gives a DT=2.5, MET=3.0 and PAT=2.5. FT based on MET yields T2.5/1.0/D1.0/24hrs. SST around 29C. CIMSS indicates 10 to 15 knots shear over the cyclone. Resultant shear amounts to minimal over the cyclone. Shear tendency is on a decreasing trend to the south and east of Tam according to CIMSS and Tam is likely to maintain its intensity as it steers gradually southeastwards by deep environmental northwesterlies in the next 24 hours.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone TAM will be issued around 121400 UTC.

FROM RSMC-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION O5F

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B3 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/0816 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Depression 05F centre [996hPa] centre was located near 20.3S 170.0W at 120600 UTC. Position poor based on HR GOES-10/EIR imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Depression moving westsouthwest 10 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds 30 to 35 knots within 60 to 240 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle.

LLCC lies exposed and deep convection is displaced about half a degree to the southeast. SST around 28 to 29C. 05F lies under 45 knot northwest winds at 250hpa and environmental shear over the system is 30-40 knots. Depression currently steered southwest by mid-level ridge to the southeast. Global models are moving the depression further south with lesser chances of intensification. Potential for 05F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is low.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 05F will be issued around 121430 UTC.


Special Weather Bulletin Number THREE for Wallis and Futuna ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/0956 UTC 2006 UTC.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR FUTUNA IS NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [991HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7 SOUTH 176.4 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH OF WALLIS AND 100 MILES EASTSOUTHEAST OF FUTUNA AT 120900 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE EASTSOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 TO 40 KNOTS, OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ON THIS TRACK THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 110 MILES TO THE SOUTH OF WALLIS AND 130 MILES EASTSOUTHEAST OF FUTUNA BY 121200 UTC AND 160 MILES SOUTHSOUTHEAST OF WALLIS OR 210 MILES TO THE EASTSOUTHEAST OF FUTUNA BY 121800 UTC.

FOR WALLIS:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS, EASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS TOMORROW. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY WESTERLY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

FOR FUTUNA :
EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE GRADUALLY FROM LATER TONIGHT AND TURN SOUTHERLY. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA UNLESS THE SITUATION CHANGES. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE THE ROUTINE ISSUE AT 121530 UTC.

Special Weather Bulletin Number THREE for Tonga on TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 12/0832 UTC 2006 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING-TONGA

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE NIUAS.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAIN IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF TONGA.

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE NIUAS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [991HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7 SOUTH 177.3 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF NIUAFO'OU OR ABOUT 220 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF NIUATOPUTAPU AT 120600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE EASTSOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 TO 40 KNOTS, OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ON ITS FORCAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS GOING TO BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NIUAS TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF TONGA TOMORROW.

FOR NIUAFO'OU AND NIUATOPUTAPU, NORTHWEST WINDS 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 35 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING SEA FLOODING LIKELY. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH
SEAS WITH DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF TONGA, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 35 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS FROM LATER TOMORROW. RAIN BECOMING MORE FREQUENT AND HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING VERY ROUGH. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR THE MARINERS: EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 35 TO 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE, OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY


FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA 5N TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 180 AND EQ TO 25S BETWEEN 180 AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE 5N to 25S between 160E and 180 and EQ to 25S between 180 and 120W issued by Fiji Meteorological Service Jan 120800 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNINGGALE WARNING 005 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 12/0719 UTC 2006 UTC.TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [991HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7 SOUTH 177.3 WEST AT 120600 UTC. POSITION POOR. REPEAT POSITION 14.7S 177.3W AT 120600 UTC.CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE EASTSOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.6S 174.7W AT 121800 UTC AND NEAR 17.2S 172.7W AT 130600 UTC.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 003

GALE WARNING 006 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 12/0731 UTC 2006 UTC.TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F [996HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3S 170.0W AT 120600 UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 240 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 004.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Jan 130600 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [991HPA] NEAR 14.7S 177.3W POSITION POOR. MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS. OUTSIDE GALE WARNING AREA MENTIONED IN GALE WARNING NUMBER 005 EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F [996HPA] NEAR 20.3S 170.0W. MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS. OUTSIDE GALE WARNING AREA MENTIONED IN GALE WARNING NUMBER 006 EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITHIN 300 TO 360 MILES OF CENTRE. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.


APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these systems as they develop.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

APCEDI Alert SP/FJ Tropical Depression 04F #3-2006: Tropical Depression 04F Intensifying; Cyclone Alerts for Futuna and Tonga

After being re-assimilated into the low pressure trough for a few days, Depression 04F is again strengthening and now threatening to become the season's first cyclone. Further to the southeast along the same trough a new Depression 05F has also formed. Both these depressions are causing very stormy weather for many island areas in the South Pacific. A number of advisories, alerts and warnings are beginning to be raised including a Cyclone Alert for Futuna. This APCEDI Report will deal with both systems.

RSMC-Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on both Tropical Depressions 04F and 05F. RSMC-Tropical Cyclone Centre has upgraded the potential for Depression 04F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours to moderate to good. Should this eventuate it would be the first cyclone of the current season in the South Pacific.

Depression 04F is moving southeast at 10 knots (19 km/hr) and Depression 05F is moving southeast at 05 knots (9 km/hr) along the same low pressure trough.

All interests in Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Tonga, Niue, the Cook Islands and French Polynesia should monitor this situation carefully and listen to news and weather reports as the situations develops over the next few days. Where advisories, alerts and warnings have been raised all people should take appropriate action as instructed by local authorities. Pacific NGOs should monitor this situation very carefully.

The following is a list of advisories, alerts and warnings currently in effect.

CURRENT ADVISORIES, ALERTS AND WARNINGS

TONGA - CYCLONE ALERT; STRONG WIND WARNING

FUTUNA - CYCLONE ALERT

SAMOA - FLOOD ADVISORY, STRONG WIND ADVISORY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

AMERICAN SAMOA - SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

FIJI - A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL FIJI WATERS.

TUVALU - STONG WIND WARNING

SOUTHWEST MARINE - GALE WARNING


FROM RSMC-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 11/2020 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Depression 04F centre [999hPa] centre was located near 14.2S 179.9W at 111800 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT/EIR/VIS imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Depression moving southeast 10 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 25 to 30 knots possibly increasing to 35 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre in the next 12 to 24 hours.

System was sheared overnight. LLCC located northwest edge of developing CDO. Organisation improved past 24 hours. However, deep convection still remain disjointed. Shear over depression increasing especially to south. SST around 29C. 04F lies under divergent flow but moving into 30 to 40-knot northwest wind region at 250hpa. Depression currently steered by mid-level westerlies and expected to gradually turn south in the next 48 hours. Global models move the depression southeast and later south with moderate intensification. Potential for 04F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24
hours is moderate to good.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 04F will be issued around 120200 UTC.


Special Weather Bulletin Number ONE for Wallis and Futuna ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F issued from RSMC NADI Jan 11/2235 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR FUTUNA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F [998HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3 SOUTH 179.8 WEST
OR ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF FUTUNA OR ABOUT 220 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WALLIS AT
112100 UTC. THE DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH LATER. THE DEPRESSION IS INTENSIFYING SLOWLY
AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. IF THIS HAPPENS
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE OVER FUTUNA LATER TODAY.

ON THIS TRACK THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF FUTUNA BY 120300 UTC AND 150 MILES TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY
120900 UTC.

FOR FUTUNA :
NORTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS INCREASING TO DAMAGING
GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 35 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS LATER
TODAY. FREQUENT RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS VERY ROUGH
TO HIGH. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR WALLIS:
NORTHEAST WINDS FRESH AND GUSTY.
PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
120430 UTC.


Special Weather Bulletin Number ONE for Tonga on TROPICAL DEPRESSION O4F issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 11/2219 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR TONGA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR TONGA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F [998HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3 SOUTH 179.8 WEST
OR ABOUT 255 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF NIUAFO'OU OR ABOUT 365 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST
OF NIUATOPUTAPU AT 112100 UTC. THE DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ABOUT
10 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHERLY LATER. THE DEPRESSION IS INTENSIFYING
SLOWLY AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

IF THIS HAPPENS WINDS MAY INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE OVER THE NIUAS FROM
LATER TONIGHT AND CENTRAL PARTS OF TONGA FROM TOMORROW.

FOR NIUAFO'OU AND NIUATOPUTAPU, SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 35
KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS FROM LATER TONIGHT. PERIODS OF RAIN HEAVY
AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING SEA
FLOODING POSSIBLE. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITH DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF TONGA, SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 35 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY
GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS FROM LATER TOMORROW. RAIN BECOMING MORE FREQUENT AND HEAVY AT
TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING VERY ROUGH. MODERATE TO HEAVY
SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS STILL
EXPECTED.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR THE MARINERS:
EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 30 KNOTS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WITHIN 60 MILES OF
CENTRE WITH VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for Tonga on 04F will be issued at around
120400 UTC or earlier.


FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

ABPW10 PGTW 080600 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN /AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/080600Z-090600ZJAN2006// RMKS/

BPW10 PGTW 110600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN/AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/110600Z-120600ZJAN2006//
RMKS/

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.3S 177.8E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTH OF SUVA, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN INCREASINGLY WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INCREASING 850 MB VORTICITY AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24HOURS IS POOR.

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.2S 168.8W, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY, A 110124Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS, AND A 110136Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS REVEAL AN INCREASE OF SURFACE INFLOW INTO A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INCREASING 850 MB VORTICITY AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//
NNNN


FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA 5N TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 180 AND EQ TO 25S BETWEEN 180 AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Jan 112000 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNING GALE WARNING 001 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 11/1924 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F [999HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 179.9W AT 111800 UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.


APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these systems as they develop.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

APCEDI Alert SP/FJ Tropical Depression 04F #2-2006: Tropical Depression 04F weakens as it drifts west.

RSMC-Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Tropical Depression, designated 04F by the RSMC-Tropical Cyclone Centre, that has formed northeast of Fiji.

Tropical Depression 04F is weakening as it moves slowly west north of the main Fijian island of Vanua Levu. Given the current meteorological high shear environment, it is unlikely that this system will form into a tropical cyclone within the next day or two. Stormy weather will however continue in across Northern Fiji including Rotuma.

All interests in Fiji including Rotuma should remain vigilant and closely monitor news and weather reports.


FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

ABPW10 PGTW 080600 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN /AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/080600Z-090600ZJAN2006// RMKS/

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 179.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 179.0E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM NORTH OF SUVA, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE CURRENT AND FORECAST ENVIRONMENT OF UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
NNNN

FROM RSMC-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W issued from RSMC NADI Jan 09/0108 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F [1004HPA] NEAR 15.4S 176.4E AT 090000 UTC MOVING WEST 05 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR AND BASED ON MTSAT VIS, RECENT AMSRE PASS AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST IS AROUND 29C.

SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY. DEEP CONVENTION IS NOW DETACHED FROM THE CENTRE AND LIES TO THE FAR NORTH OF EXPOSED LLCC. CAN NOT CLASSIFY SYSTEM USING DT, DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON MET RESULTING IN T1.0/1.5/W0.5/12HRS. 04F REMAINS SOUTH OF THE UPPER 250HPA RIDGE AXIS. SYSTEM IS SHEARED AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ON ITS WESTERLY TRACK. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON STEERING THE SYSTEM WESTWARDS WITH LITTLE DEVELOPENT.

POTENTIAL FOR 04F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.


FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Weather Bulletin
Issued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre Nadi at 10:45am on Monday the 9th of January 2006

SITUATION: A trough of low pressure remains slow moving to the north of the group. Associated cloud and rain continue to affect the eastern parts of Fiji.

Forecast to midnight tomorrow for the Fiji group: Some rain and a few squally thunderstorms about Lau, Lomaiviti group
and Kadavu. Elsewhere, afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms about the main islands. Moderate to fresh easterly winds. Moderate to rough seas.

For Rotuma : North to northwest winds, fresh and gusty at times. Rain, heavy at times and a few squally thunderstorms.
Moderate seas. Outlook for WEDNESDAY : Rain continuing.


APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

APCEDI Alert SP/FJ Tropical Depression 04F #1-2006: Tropical Depression 04F forms Northeast of Fiji

RSMC-Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Tropical Depression, designated 04F by the RSMC-Tropical Cyclone Centre, that has formed northeast of Fiji.

Tropical Depression 04F is moving slowly southwest towards the main Fiji Islands of Vanua Levu and Viti Levu. Given the current meteorological environment, it is unlikely that this system will form into a tropical cyclone within the next day or two. However, because it is slow moving it has the potential to bring flooding and flash flooding to low lying and flood prone areas of Taveuni, Vanua Levu and Viti Levu as well as the Lau and Lomaiviti groups. This could include tidal flooding of low-lying coastal area, flooding of rivers and streams and flash-flooding in hill areas.

All interests in Fiji should remain vigilant as the system moves across the islands and closely monitor news and weather reports. Interests in the Southern Tonga Groups should also monitor the progression of this system.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

ABPW10 PGTW 072130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN /AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/072130Z-080600ZJAN2006// RMKS/

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.0S 179.4E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN INCREASINGLY WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INCREASING 850 MB VORTICITY AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.


FROM RSMC-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W issued from RSMC NADI Jan 07/1042 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F [1006HPA] NEAR 15S 179.0E AT 070600 UTC AND EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTSOUTHWEST. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, QUIKSCAT AND MTSAT IR. SST IS AROUND 29C.

04F LIES IN A GOOD DIFFLUENT REGION JUST SOUTH OF UPPER 250HPA RIDGE AXIS. THERE IS A LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM LIES UNDER MIMIMAL SHEAR [CIMMS]. HOWEVER,
MODERATE SHEAR GRADIENT EXIST SOUTH OF 15S. GLOBAL MODELS [GFS,UKGC]ARE SLOWLY MOVING THE SYSTEM WESTSOUTHWEST. POTENTIAL FOR 04F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.


FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Fiji Public Weather Bulletin
Issued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre Nadi at 5:30am on Sunday the 8th of January 2006

SITUATION: A trough of low pressure with an associated tropical depression lies to the north of Vanua Levu and is expected to move onto the group. Associated cloud and rain affect the northern and
eastern parts of Fiji.

Forecast to midnight tonight for the Fiji group: Cloudy with some rain, heavy at times and a few squally thunderstorms about Lau and Lomaiviti groups, Taveuni, Vanua Levu and the eastern parts of Viti Levu. Elsewhere, heavy afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Flooding of low lying areas likely. Moderate northeast to southeast winds. Moderate seas.


APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system as it moves across Fiji.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.