APCEDI Alert SP/Fj 15P Gene #7-2008: Cyclone Gene Pounds Southern Vanuatu and Causes Serious Damage on Futuna, but Begins to Move Away

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue guidance on Tropical Cyclone Gene that is now moving away from Vanuatu after pounding the southernmost islands.

The centre of Cyclone Gene is located 75 km east-northeast of the southernmost Vanuatu island of Anatom at 5 PM this evening Vanuatu time with the centre of the storm likely to sideswipe the island to the southeast before moving away from Vanuatu. Gene is maintaining a slow forward speed to the south-southwest at 4 km/hr. Cyclone Gene continues to maintain strength and has again formed a clear eye feature.

The current forecast map shows Gene continuing to recurve towards the south and will begin to move away from Vanuatu this evening. Southern recurvature now looks strong enough to avoid a direct hit on New Caledonia.

Cyclone Gene is currently at a strong Category 2 strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale. This equates to a Category 3 on the Australia Scale and will remain at this strength as it begins to move away to the south and into the open South Pacific Ocean.

Cyclone Warnings remain in place for all of Tafea Province of Southern Vanuatu including the islands of Erromango, Tanna, Anatom, Aniwa and Futuna and all adjacent small islands. A Cyclone warning has now been discontinued for Shefa Province of Central Vanuatu.

Here is an island by island breakdown for Tafea Province.

Futuna, population 400; Futuna, Vanuatu's easternmost island, has received the worst impact from the storm having been battered for nearly 18 hours by the intense centre part of this slow moving cyclone. Severe and widespread damage is being reported throughout the island including the damage or complete loss of many homes, and the island's churches and schools and other buildings. However, the 400 residents have so far been reported safe riding out the storm in stronger shelters. Given the rough, steep volcanic terrain, flash flooding off the volcano slopes continues to be a severe threat. Seas will be phenomenal and likely to cause severe coastal erosion and tidal flooding. Futuna will likely need immediate and long-term relief assistance as soon as possible given the widespread destruction to buildings and crops.

Anatom (Anietyum), population 800; Anatom, Vanuatu's southernmost island, is also taking a strong pounding from the storm and will continue to experience very bad conditions for some 6-10 more hours as Cyclone Gene passes to the southeast. Little information has been heard from Anatom as communications are down, but similar type damage as that experienced on Futuna is likely. Given the rough, steep volcanic terrain, flash flooding off the volcanic slopes could be severe. Seas will be phenomenal and likely to cause severe coastal erosion and tidal flooding. The extent of the damage will depend on how close the storm moves past the island as it begins to recurve away. Anatom will also likely need immediate and long-term relief assistance as soon as possible given the likelihood of widespread destruction to buildings and crops.

Tanna, population 26,000; Tanna, the island with the Province's largest population, has escaped the brunt of the storm. However widespread minor to moderate damage is being reported from around the island particularly on south and east sides. Communication has been lost with many villages, but it is likely that lots of trees are down, crops damaged and some damage to structures. No one has been reported injured so far. Given the rough, steep volcanic terrain, flash flooding off the volcano slopes could be severe. Seas will be phenomenal and likely to cause severe coastal erosion and tidal flooding. This assessment also applies to the small island of Aniwa, population 400, which lies off the northeast coast of Tanna and which has lost all communication to Vila.

Erromango, population 1,500; The northernmost island escaped the full brunt of Cyclone Gene but did experience some destructive gale force winds, very rough seas and heavy rains. Damage has been widespread but mostly minor and limited to trees and powerlines down although many villages on the south and east coast have lost communication. Given the rough, steep volcanic terrain, flash flooding off the volcano slopes could be severe. Seas will be phenomenal and likely to cause severe coastal erosion and tidal flooding.

New Caledonia remains on Cyclone Alert but the threat to the territory has been reduced as the cyclone looks like it will recurve tot he south. Nonetheless heavy rains, and very high seas will occur in some area. The New Caledonian islands of Lifou, Maré and Ouvéa should be particularly watchful as the storm passes to the east of these islands.

All residents and interests in Southern Vanuatu and New Caledonia should monitor the progress of the storm and follow all cyclone advice that the Government issues. Cyclone Gene continues to be a strong and dangerous storm capable of considerable widespread and severe damage on any islands near to where the centre of the storm passes.

EFFECTS OF CYLCONE GENE ON FIJI
Gene caused widespread minor to moderate damage across both of the main Fiji islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu as well as Taveuni and the Yasawa and Mamanuca Groups and many other outliers near the big islands. Many trees were brought down, and power was temporarily cut to wide areas including Suva and Nadi. Widespread low-level crop and vegetation damage is also reported as well as superficial damage to some homes and buildings. However, the lower strength of the storm limited more severe wind damage. Power has been already restored in many areas. River flooding from continuing rains associated with the system has destroyed some homes in both Navua and Nadi, and in a few other areas. Two people were killed as an indirect result of Cyclone Gene from house fires while using candles to light their homes when the power went out. 5 others deaths have been attributed to storm or flood related incidents. FijiLive has some good e-coverage.


ALERTS AND WARNINGS

VANUATU

A CYCLONE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TAFEA PROVINCE INCLUDING ERROMANGO, TANNA, ANATOM, ANIWA AND FUTUNA.
A CYCLONE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR CENTRAL VANUATU.

NEW CALEDONIA/ NOUVELLE CALEDONIE

A CYCLONE WATCH AND ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL NEW CALEDONIA INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF LIFOU, OUVÉA AND MARÉ.

____________________

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Vanuatu Advisory

Special Advisory Number FOURTEEN for Vanuatu on TC GENE ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 01/0155 UTC 2008 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [945HPA] CAT 3 NEAR 19.9S 170.8E AT 010000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR/VIS IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE NOW SLOW MOVING BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 4 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 95 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 35 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 55 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS PERSIST OVER LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST AND SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWEST UNDER DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW. CIMSS SHOWS INCREASING SHEAR OVER SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON RAGGED, CLOUD-FILLED EYE AND CENTRE EMBEDDED IN B
SHADE YIELDING A DT=5.0, MET=5.5 AND PT=5.0, THUS T5.0/5.5/D0.5/24HRS. CONSENSUS INTENSIFIES THE CYCLONE WHILST ON A SLOW POLEWARD TRACK

ON ITS PROJECTED TRACK, SEVERE TC GENE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF ANEITYUM IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS ABOUT AND SOUTH OF ERROMANGO. FOR TANNA AND ANEITYUM EXPECT DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS. WINDS INCREASING TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE OVER ANEITYUM LATER TODAY.

RAIN BECOMING FREQUENT AND HEAVY WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT AND SOUTH OF ERROMANGO. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS. VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC NEAR 20.6S 170.2E MOV SW 4KT WITH 90KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC NEAR 21.5S 170.0E MOV SSW 5KT WITH 95KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC NEAR 22.3S 169.9E MOV S 4KT WITH 75KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 030000 UTC NEAR 23.2S 169.6E MOV S 5KT WITH 50KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON SEVERE TC GENE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 010830 UTC.

VANUATU MET PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

______________________________________

From the Vanuatu Meteorological Service

Vanuatu Advisory
Vanuatu Meteorological Service
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Tropical cyclone Warning Number 13 for Tafea Province

This is Tropical cyclone warning number 13 issued by the Vanuatu Meteorological Services at 3:00PM, local time the 1st of February 2008 for the province of Tafea.

At 2:00pm local time, Tropical cyclone Gene was relocated at 20.0 degrees South and 170.8 degrees East. This location places Gene at the bottom right corner of Square letter J, Number 9 (J, 9) of the Vanuatu tropical cyclone tracking map. This is about 75KM southeast of Futuna and 90KM east northeast of Aneityum. TC Gene has slowly moved southwards at 04 KM/HR (02 Knots) in the past 12 hours.

The central pressure of the system is estimated at 940hPa. Winds close to the centre are estimated at 165 KM/HR (90 Knots). TC Gene is forecast to be at square Letter J, Number 10 (J,10) of the Tropical Cyclone Tracking Map within the next 6 hours, and at square letter I, number 11 (I, 11) within the next 12 to 18 hours.

Destructive hurricane force winds of 150KM/HR (80 knots) will continue to affect Futuna Island today and tonight, and will later extend to Aneityum within the next 12 hours.

Damaging Storm Force Winds of 110KM/HR (60 knots) will continue to affect Aniwa and Tanna Island.

Gale force winds of 75KM/HR (40 knots) will continue to affect Erromango. Winds over Erromango will slowly weaken as the system moves further southwest.

The sea is very rough in the affected areas with heavy swells. People, including sea going vessels are strongly advice not to go out to sea until the system moves out of the area. Heavy rainfall and flooding, including coastal flooding is expected over the southern islands.

The Vanuatu Meteorological Service will issue the next warning on TC Gene at 6pm. People over Tafea province are advised to listen to Radio Vanuatu for the latest information on this system.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Telephone: (678) 22932

*
NM – Nautical Miles
*
KM – Kilometres
*
M – Miles
*
KM/HR – Kilometre per hour
*
K – Knots
*
hPa - hectoPascal

_________________________________
APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/Fj 15P Gene #6-2008: Cyclone Gene Begins to Pound Southern Vanuatu; Threatens Serious Damage for Tanna, Erromango and Anatom

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue guidance on Tropical Cyclone Gene that is now beginning to impact on Southern Vanuatu.

The centre of Cyclone Gene is located 120 km east of of the Vanuatu island of Tanna at 8 PM this evening Vanuatu time with the centre of the storm approaching the small island of Futuna east of Tanna. Gene is maintaining a slow forward speed to the southwest at 9 km/hr. Cyclone Gene continues to intensify and has recently formed a clear eye feature about 80 km east of Futuna.

The current forecast map shows Gene beginning its onslaught on the southernmost islands of Vanuatu. At its current speed and forecast direction, Gene's centre pass over or near to the island of Futuna and then turn more southerly and pass over or near to the island of Anatom, Vanuatu's southern-most island. The exact passage of the Cyclone and the exact timing of recurvature will depend on which islands get direct hits and which get the most damage.

Cyclone Gene is currently at Category 2 strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale. This equates to a Category 3 on the Australia Scale. It is now forecast to slightly increase in strength as it moves southwestward across Vanuatu and should pass the southernmost Vanuatu islands at Category 2 strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale, which equates to Category 3 on the Australia Scale.

Cyclone Warnings remain in place for all of Tafea Province of Southern Vanuatu including the islands of Erromango, Tanna, Anatom, Aniwa and Futuna and all adjacent small islands. A Cyclone warning/ watch also is in place for Shefa Province of Central Vanuatu.

Here is an island by island breakdown for Tafea Province.

Futuna, population 400; Futuna, Vanuatu's easternmost island, tonight looks set to be the first island directly in harm's way and could receive a direct hit by the eyewall of a slow moving cyclone in the next 6 hours. Should this occur, damage will likely be severe and widespread. News reports are indicating that nearly all people are moving to shelters. Given the rough, steep volcanic terrain, flash flooding off the volcano slopes could be severe. Seas will be phenomenal and likely to cause severe coastal erosion and tidal flooding.

Anatom (Anietyum), population 800; After Futuna, Anatom, Vanuatu's southernmost island, also looks set to possibly receive a direct hit in 8-12 hours. Should this occur, damage will likely be severe and widespread. News reports are indicating people are moving to shelters nearly everywhere. Given the rough, steep volcanic terrain, flash flooding off the volcano slopes could be severe. Seas will be phenomenal and likely to cause severe coastal erosion and tidal flooding.

Tanna, population 26,000; Tanna, the island with the Province's largest population, looks like it will miss a direct hit at this time, but the centre of the storm could pass quite close still causing considerable widespread and severe damage. News reports are indicating people are moving to shelters in vulnerable areas. Given the rough, steep volcanic terrain, flash flooding off the volcano slopes could be severe. Seas will be phenomenal and likely to cause severe coastal erosion and tidal flooding. This assessment also applies to the small island of Aniwa, population 400, which lies off the northeast coast of Tanna.

Erromango, population 1,500; the northernmost island will likely miss the full brunt of the Cyclone Gene but will still receive destructive gale force winds and very rough seas and heavy rains. Damage will likely be moderate and widespread. News reports are indicating people are moving to shelters in vulnerable areas. Given the rough, steep volcanic terrain, flash flooding off the volcano slopes could be severe. Seas will be phenomenal and likely to cause severe coastal erosion and tidal flooding.

New Caledonia has also been put on Cyclone Alert as it could take a blow from Gene once it passes through southern Vanuatu. The New Caledonian islands of Lifou, Maré and Ouvéa should be particularly watchful as the storm would likely hit them first before the main island of Grande Terre. The effect on New Caledonia will depend considerably on the timing and degree of recurvature of the storm's path to the south.

All residents and interests in Southern Vanuatu and New Caledonia should monitor the progress of the storm as it passes over and follow all cyclone advice that the Government issues. As Cyclone Gene increases in strength it is increasingly becoming a more dangerous storm. Considerable widespread and severe damage could be expected on any islands near to where the centre of the storm passes.

EFFECTS OF CYLCONE GENE ON FIJI
Gene caused widespread minor to moderate damage across both of the main Fiji islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu as well as Taveuni and the Yasawa and Mamanuca Groups and many other outliers near the big islands. Many trees were brought down, and power was temporarily cut to wide areas including Suva and Nadi. Widespread low-level crop and vegetation damage is also reported as well as superficial damage to some homes and buildings. However, the lower strength of the storm limited more severe wind damage. Power has been already restored in many areas. River flooding from continuing rains associated with the system has destroyed some homes in both Navua and Nadi, and in a few other areas. Two people were killed as an indirect result of Cyclone Gene from house fires while using candles to light their homes when the power went out. FijiLive has some good e-coverage.


ALERTS AND WARNINGS

VANUATU

A CYCLONE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TAFEA PROVINCE INCLUDING ERROMANGO, TANNA, ANATOM, ANIWA AND FUTUNA.
A CYCLONE WARNING?WATCH AND ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CENTRAL VANUATU.

FIJI

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VITI LEVU, BEQA, VATULELE, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN YASAWAS AND MAMANUCAS.

NEW CALEDONIA/ NOUVELLE CALEDONIE

A CYCLONE WATCH AND ALERT HAS BEEN RAISED FOR ALL NEW CALEDONIA INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF LIFOU, OUVÉA AND MARÉ.

____________________

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Vanuatu Advisory

Special Advisory Number ELEVEN for Vanuatu on TC GENE ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 31/0820 UTC 2008 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [955HPA] CAT 3 NEAR 19.4S 171.2E AT 310600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 5 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTH WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HRS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 35 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 55 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 160 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 110 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD PAST 6 HOURS WITH COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS PERSISTING OVER LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST. STEERING STILL INFLUENCED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO ALLOW POLEWARD MOVEMENT IN NEXT 18 HRS. CIMSS SHOWS MODERATE SHEAR OVER SYSTEM AS WELL AS ALONG FORECAST TRACK. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBD
CENTRE PATTERN WITHIN WHITE DT=5.0,MET=5.0 AND PT=4.5, THUS T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS. THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FURTHER INTENSIFIES THE CYCLONE AND GRADUALLY TURNS IT TOWARDS THE SOUTH IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS.

ON ITS PROJECTED TRACK, SEVERE TC GENE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF TANNA WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF VILA. BETWEEN TANNA AND ANEITYUM WINDS INCREASING TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AND THEN VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

RAIN BECOMING FREQUENT AND HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS. VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITH DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 311800 UTC NEAR 19.7S 170.3E MOV SW 3KT WITH 85KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC NEAR 20.3S 169.9E MOV SSW 3KT WITH 90KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC NEAR 21.0S 169.7E MOV S 5KT WITH 90KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC NEAR 21.9S 169.5E MOV S 5KT WITH 80KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON SEVERE TC GENE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 311430 UTC.

VANUATU MET PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

______________________________________

From the Vanuatu Meteorological Service

Vanuatu Advisory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Tropical cyclone Warning Number 6 for Tafea Province

This is Tropical cyclone warning number 6 issued by the Vanuatu Meteorological Services at 6pm, local time the 31st of January 2008 for the provinces of Shefa and Tafea.

At 5:00pm local time, Tropical cyclone Gene was relocated at 19.2 degrees South and 171.3 degrees East. This location places Gene at the top left corner of Square letter K, Number 9 (K, 9) of the Vanuatu tropical cyclone tracking map. This is about 200KM southeast of Erromango Island and 100 KM northeast of Futuna Island. TC Gene has moved west-southwest at 07 KM/HR (04 Knots) in the past 12 hours.

The central pressure of the system is estimated at 955hPa. Winds close to the centre estimated at 145 KM/HR (80 Knots). Based on its forecast track, TC Gene is forecast to be at Square Letter I, Number 9 (I, 9) of the Tropical Cyclone Tracking Map within the next 6 to 12 hours, and at square letter I, number 10 (I, 10) within the next 12 to 18 hours.

Damaging Storm Force Winds of 90 to 110 KM/HR (50 to 60 knots) will affect Futuna Island within the next 6 to 12 hours. Winds over Tafea will increase to destructive hurricane force winds of 150 KM/HR (80 knots) within the next 12 to 18 hours.

Strong gusty winds of 45 KM/HR (25 knots) will likely affect Shefa Province later tonight.

The sea is very rough in the affected areas with heavy swells. People, including sea going vessels are strongly advice not to go out to sea until the system moves out of the area. Heavy rainfall and flooding, including coastal flooding is expected over the southern islands. Communities and individuals over the southern islands living near or along rivers banks, along coastal areas, on flat plains or in areas prone to land slides are advised to seek safe shelter.

The Vanuatu Meteorological Service will issue the next warning on TC Gene at 9:00pm. People over Tafea province are advised to listen to Radio Vanuatu for the latest information on this system.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Telephone: (678) 22932

*
NM – Nautical Miles
*
KM – Kilometres
*
M – Miles
*
KM/HR – Kilometre per hour
*
K – Knots
*
hPa - hectoPascal

_________________________________
APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/Fj 15P Gene #5-2008: Cyclone Gene Strengthens as it approaches Southern Vanuatu; Cyclone Warning for Tanna, Erromango and Anatom

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue guidance on Tropical Cyclone Gene that is now approaching Southern Vanuatu.

The centre of Cyclone Gene is located 290 km east of of the Vanuatu Island of Erromango at 8 PM this evening Vanuatu time. Gene has slowed its forward speed in the last few hours and is now moving to the southwest at 6 km/hr. Cyclone Gene has strengthened more than expected this afternoon and forecasts call for more intensification as it approaches Southern Vanuatu.

The current forecast map shows Gene continuing to move toward the southernmost islands of Vanuatu. At its current speed and forecast direction, it will reach Southern Vanuatu later tomorrow morning and pass between the southernmost Vanuatu islands of Tanna and Anatom.

Cyclone Gene is currently at Category 1 strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale. This equates to a minimal Category 3 on the Australia Scale. It is now forecast to increase in strength as it moves southwestward toward Vanuatu and should pass the southernmost Vanuatu islands at Category 1-2 strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale, which equates to Category 3 on the Australia Scale.

Cyclone Warnings remain in place for Southern Vanuatu including the islands of Erromango, Tanna and Anatom and all adjacent small islands.

New Caledonia has also been put on Cyclone Alert as it could take a blow from Gene once it passes through southern Vanuatu. The New Caledonian islands of Lifou, Maré and Ouvéa should be particularly watchful as the storm would likely hit them first before the main island of Grande Terre.

All residents and interests in Southern Vanuatu and New Caledonia should monitor the progress of the storm as it approaches and rush any cyclone preparations to completion as the Government issues advice. As Cyclone Gene increases in strength it is becoming a more dangerous storm. Considerable damage could be expected on any islands near to where the centre of the storm passes.

EFFECTS OF CYLCONE GENE ON FIJI
Gene caused widespread minor damage across both of the main Fiji islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu as well as Taveuni and the Yasawa and Mamanuca Groups and many other outliers near the big islands. Many trees were brought down, and power was temporarily cut to wide areas including Suva and Nadi. Widespread low-level crop and vegetation damage is also reported as well as superficial damage to some homes and buildings. However, the lower strength of the storm limited more severe wind damage. Power has been already restored in many areas. River flooding from continuing rains associated with the system has destroyed some homes in both Navua and Nadi, and in a few other areas. Two people were killed as an indirect result of Cyclone Gene from house fires while using candles to light their homes when the power went out. FijiLive has some good e-coverage.


ALERTS AND WARNINGS

VANUATU

A CYCLONE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ERROMANGO, TANNA, ANATOM AND ALL SMALLER ADJACENT ISLANDS INCLUDING ANIWA AND FUTUNA.
A CYCLONE WATCH AND ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CENTRAL VANUATU.

FIJI

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VITI LEVU, BEQA, VATULELE, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN YASAWAS AND MAMANUCAS.

NEW CALEDONIA/ NOUVELLE CALEDONIE

A CYCLONE WATCH AND ALERT HAS BEEN RAISED FOR ALL NEW CALEDONIA INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF LIFOU, OUVÉA AND MARÉ.

____________________

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Vanuatu Advisory

Special Advisory Number SEVEN for Vanuatu on TC GENE ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 30/0851 UTC 2008 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [970HPA] CAT 3 NEAR 18.6S 173.2E AT 300600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 3 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 100 MILES ELSEWHERE.

COLD TOPS OVER LLCC HAS ENABLED INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE LAST SIX HOURS. COOLING TO SOUTHEAST OF LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. STEERING STILL INFLUENCED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO ALLOW POLEWARD MOVEMENT IN NEXT 48HRS. CIMSS SHOWING MODERATE SHEAR OVER SYSTEM BUT DECREASING SHEAR ALONG FORECAST TRACK. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON MET=4.5 AND PT=4.5, THUS T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS. CONSENSUS TAKES THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE TURNING SOUTH.

ON ITS PROJECTED TRACK, SEVERE TC GENE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OR CLOSE TO ISLANDS ABOUT AND SOUTH OF TANNA. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS SOUTH OF ERROMANGO. WINDS INCREASING TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS SOUTH OF TANNA.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN VANUATU INCREASING TO FREQUENT AND HEAVY RAIN TOMORROW NIGHT. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH TO HIGH WITH DAMAGING HEAVY EASTERLY SWELLS.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 301800 UTC NEAR 19.3S 171.7E MOV WSW 9KT WITH 70KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 310600 UTC NEAR 20.0S 170.1E MOV WSW 6KT WITH 85KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 311800 UTC NEAR 20.7S 169.1E MOV SW 7KT WITH 90KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC NEAR 21.5S 168.2E MOV SSW 5KT WITH 90KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON SEVERE TC GENE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 301430 UTC.

VANUATU MET PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

_________________________________
APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.